wolfie09 Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 The departing surface high will keep temperatures on the cold side ahead of this system. Latest model soundings continue to suggest it will be cold enough to allow for at least some wet snow at the start of precipitation on Sunday. The GFS/NAM solutions are colder than the ECMWF/GEM guidance, and would suggest a little longer period of snow and better potential for some accumulation. Following the snow at the onset, a stronger push of warm advection in the low levels will change everything over to rain by late Sunday afternoon in the west, and during the first half of Sunday night east of Lake Ontario. Soundings suggest most areas will see a clean transition from wet snow to rain. That said, there may be a few localized pockets of freezing rain potential Sunday afternoon across the valleys of the Southern Tier, and the first half of Sunday night across the North Country if surface temperatures stay at or just below freezing as warmer air aloft arrives. The steady precipitation will taper off from west to east late Sunday night and Monday morning as the surface low moves down the Saint Lawrence Valley and a cold front sweeps from west to east across the area. There will be some limited, light lake effect rain and snow showers east and southeast of the lakes Monday in the wake of this system as 850MB temps drop to around -5C. The limited lake response will end Monday night as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes with associated dry air, subsidence, and increased boundary layer shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: The departing surface high will keep temperatures on the cold side ahead of this system. Latest model soundings continue to suggest it will be cold enough to allow for at least some wet snow at the start of precipitation on Sunday. The GFS/NAM solutions are colder than the ECMWF/GEM guidance, and would suggest a little longer period of snow and better potential for some accumulation. Following the snow at the onset, a stronger push of warm advection in the low levels will change everything over to rain by late Sunday afternoon in the west, and during the first half of Sunday night east of Lake Ontario. Soundings suggest most areas will see a clean transition from wet snow to rain. That said, there may be a few localized pockets of freezing rain potential Sunday afternoon across the valleys of the Southern Tier, and the first half of Sunday night across the North Country if surface temperatures stay at or just below freezing as warmer air aloft arrives. The steady precipitation will taper off from west to east late Sunday night and Monday morning as the surface low moves down the Saint Lawrence Valley and a cold front sweeps from west to east across the area. There will be some limited, light lake effect rain and snow showers east and southeast of the lakes Monday in the wake of this system as 850MB temps drop to around -5C. The limited lake response will end Monday night as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes with associated dry air, subsidence, and increased boundary layer shear. GFS 12z has a lot of good opportunities to it especially as we hit December...it would have 2 looks at a LES event for our regions...and FWIW Sunday looks somewhat colder and a tad more snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 20, 2020 Author Share Posted November 20, 2020 13 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: GFS 12z has a lot of good opportunities to it especially as we hit December...it would have 2 looks at a LES event for our regions...and FWIW Sunday looks somewhat colder and a tad more snow. That GFS run had to be a blip. Was full of 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 20, 2020 Author Share Posted November 20, 2020 3KM was nice hit 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 Hopefully in the next 7-10 days we start to see more of this..lol I was hoping to see 1 classic WSW event before heading back to Oswego county (end of December).. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 I say it all the time, inland storms are good for the westerly crowd on the back side of these systems.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 20, 2020 Author Share Posted November 20, 2020 4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: I say it all the time, inland storms are good for the westerly crowd on the back side of these systems.. Almost all top tier LES storms are from retrograding lows due to Greenland blocking. You need to get warm with a cutter to get the real goods. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 I think we can see a quick front end "thump"..These warm fronts coming into colder air can be a few hours of fun lol The Mix line could also fly north quicker than models predict.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 Maybe overboard lol It is what it is.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 Has some ZR as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 19 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: I think we can see a quick front end "thump"..These warm fronts coming into colder air can be a few hours of fun lol The Mix line could also fly north quicker than models predict.. You can see quite the difference on the Rgem.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 I’ll take the under on 9” at BUF and ROC lmao. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 Just now, lakeeffectkid383 said: I’ll take the under on 9” at BUF and ROC lmao. NAM is in regular form I see... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 HWO Rain and snow on Sunday will change to mainly rain on Sunday night. However, a wintry mix of rain, freezing rain and sleet could occur Sunday night into early Monday morning over the higher terrain as temperatures only slowly warm. Minor slushy snow accumulations are possible on Sunday, especially across the higher terrain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 Latest model soundings continue to suggest it will be cold enough to allow for at least some wet snow at the start of precipitation on Sunday before the strengthening low-level trough pushes a warm layer aloft and eventually to the sfc across the region. Thermal profiles remain mainly isothermal though, right on the edge of rain and snow. Does seem that over majority of western NY to the Finger Lakes that by time warm layer aloft arrives Sunday afternoon, near surface temps will be just warm enough for rain as main ptype. Before that occurs mainly inland areas will see a couple inches of wet snow on Sunday morning. By Sunday evening, still some concern that higher terrain east of Lake Ontario and even lower elevations along the St. Lawrence River could be looking at snow changing to mix of rain/freezing rain or sleet depening on how cold it is at surface when warm layer arrives. Went with mainly rain, but did include small chance of the wintry mix as well. Possible some minor icing could occur if coldest surface temps from NAM verify. Right now this looks like pretty low risk though. Otherwise, most likely looking at a cold, raw rain. Elsewhere, colder air working in late behind system will not switch rain back to mix of rain and snow until after daybreak on Monday. By this time though, steady precipitation will begin tapering off from west to east as the surface low moves down the Saint Lawrence Valley and a cold front sweeps from west to east across the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 Obviously not buying the NAM products lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 2 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Maybe overboard lol It is what it is.. Maybe Overboard, lolz. Haha....I'd say its about 9.2" too high in the ROC. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 20, 2020 Author Share Posted November 20, 2020 So many memories from this storm. Did anyone get stuck at school overnight? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 ^^^^ Nope but I've had a dream I did once lol I remember Jan 96 having the entire week off for 24"-30" lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: So many memories from this storm. Did anyone get stuck at school overnight? I was at brockport in the Met lab for this one. We were all completely geeking out over that band. I was so jealous! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 24 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: So many memories from this storm. Did anyone get stuck at school overnight? I spent 12 hours trying to drive from McKinley High in north Buffalo to home in S Buffalo. Must have pushed 50 cars that night. Never made it, got as far as hutch tech. Also stole a camera from some kids throwing snowballs at cars on park side Oh yeah, about 4 hours of that was on the scajaquada. Someone had beer there... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 20, 2020 Author Share Posted November 20, 2020 I was in 7th grade. Got stuck at school. Was so much fun. We played sports in the gym all night. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 58 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: So many memories from this storm. Did anyone get stuck at school overnight? I was in elementary school. Got stranded at school till my mom could get me after 8pm. We watched movies on cots in the gym and ate peanut butter and jelly sandwiches. I was one of the lucky ones who didn’t have to spend the night as over 20 other kids landed up sleeping overnight in the gym... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 I was working in an office on Sheridan. Guy I was working with told me to pack up and head out at lunchtime. I remember driving on the 290 west, needing to get on 990. I had made the drive so many times I just knew it was off to my right. I kept edging over, because I couldn't see any signs or any lane markings. Hardest snow I have ever seen. Somehow I found it and got home. They closed the office about 20 minutes after I Ieft. Several staff members never even made it out of the parking to and slept there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 6 minutes ago, cny rider said: I was working in an office on Sheridan. Guy I was working with told me to pack up and head out at lunchtime. I remember driving on the 290 west, needing to get on 990. I had made the drive so many times I just knew it was off to my right. I kept edging over, because I couldn't see any signs or any lane markings. Hardest snow I have ever seen. Somehow I found it and got home. They closed the office about 20 minutes after I Ieft. Several staff members never even made it out of the parking to and slept there. I was working in the northtowns at the time and just bought a brand new GMC Jimmy and wanted to chase...I was fine but the myriad of cars that got stuck on the 198 was hilarious. Ended up picking up my aunt the next day from downtown and it was like a formula 1 racetrack. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I was working in the northtowns at the time and just bought a brand new GMC Jimmy and wanted to chase...I was fine but the myriad of cars that got stuck on the 198 was hilarious. Ended up picking up my aunt the next day from downtown and it was like a formula 1 racetrack. Anyone remember how bad the hard pack was on the roads that week? They also postponed the Harvard cup because of the storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 21, 2020 Author Share Posted November 21, 2020 18 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said: Anyone remember how bad the hard pack was on the roads that week? They also postponed the Harvard cup because of the storm. That year was one of my favorite winters. Look at all the events that hit metro that year. 2000-2005 had some great winters. 5 straight of 100"+ at KBUF and quite a bit more than that south of them. https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2000-2001&event=C 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 That was a great storm. The intensity and timing really caught the metro off guard. We just got home from school in West Seneca before the band moved over us. WKBW broadcast from the next morning... Also some nice raw footage from the post storm... Incorrect factual tidbits, but great footage. Amazing to see that “ice pack” on the roads. The heavy volume of traffic compacted 2’ of snow down to the density of an ice rink in the streets... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 Cool video. That snow looked like cement. Not the usual ratios for LES 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 There you go, let get buff close to a foot 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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