wolfie09 Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 An area of low pressure developing over the Ohio Valley will track northeast on Sunday, causing precipitation to overspread the region. Timing and placement of the low is still in some disagreement with timing from quickest to slowest in the following order for precipitation timing onset: GFS/Canadian/ECMWF/NAM. Initial precip onset looks like it will be with the warm front of the system, depending on exact track. Track is also in disagreement currently as the GFS and the Canadian have the center of the low track northeast across the Genesee Valley, while the ECMWF tracks the system northeast across Lake Erie into Southern Ontario. The GFS/Canadian track would result in a bit cooler temperatures and a better chance for snow at the onset of precip. As of now still to early for exact change over time, especially based on uncertainties mentioned above, but it looks like most locations will change over to rain by late morning, with some higher elevations taking a bit longer. Have high end chance to likely POPs for most of the area from Sunday late morning into Monday late morning. Timing issues also with how quickly the area of low pressure and cold front move through. For now going with a mid range of guidance solutions for temps on Sunday with highs in the mid 30s over the typically cooler spots to the mid 40s for the more usual warm spots. Highs on Monday will be similar to Sundays highs, maybe a few degrees warmer. There also may be a period of lake effect/lake enhanced precip behind the passing cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 4 hours ago, wolfie09 said: An area of low pressure developing over the Ohio Valley will track northeast on Sunday, causing precipitation to overspread the region. Timing and placement of the low is still in some disagreement with timing from quickest to slowest in the following order for precipitation timing onset: GFS/Canadian/ECMWF/NAM. Initial precip onset looks like it will be with the warm front of the system, depending on exact track. Track is also in disagreement currently as the GFS and the Canadian have the center of the low track northeast across the Genesee Valley, while the ECMWF tracks the system northeast across Lake Erie into Southern Ontario. The GFS/Canadian track would result in a bit cooler temperatures and a better chance for snow at the onset of precip. As of now still to early for exact change over time, especially based on uncertainties mentioned above, but it looks like most locations will change over to rain by late morning, with some higher elevations taking a bit longer. Have high end chance to likely POPs for most of the area from Sunday late morning into Monday late morning. Timing issues also with how quickly the area of low pressure and cold front move through. For now going with a mid range of guidance solutions for temps on Sunday with highs in the mid 30s over the typically cooler spots to the mid 40s for the more usual warm spots. Highs on Monday will be similar to Sundays highs, maybe a few degrees warmer. There also may be a period of lake effect/lake enhanced precip behind the passing cold front. Latest AFD is now leaning towards Corinth end snow and a colder solution. We will all turn to rain eventually but won’t be until Monday am. Maybe we all get some accumulating snow before the flip? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 Nam already trending the wrong way, probably best to go with the least snowiest solution aka the european lol Obviously it wouldn't take much to get us in the game.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 The same ppl say the same thing every yr, lmao! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 42 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Nam already trending the wrong way, probably best to go with the least snowiest solution aka the european lol Obviously it wouldn't take much to get us in the game.. I see a 3.6” at KBUF...if the trend is our friend we MIGHT see that pink shade a bit eastward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 7 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I see a 3.6” at KBUF...if the trend is our friend we MIGHT see that pink shade a bit eastward While true verbatim, it was a shift NW, one more like that and it's like the european.. Obviously only one run, maybe it goes back the other way lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 At least we’ve got something to watch. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 84h NAM is not usually the best, we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 3 hours ago, rochesterdave said: At least we’ve got something to watch. Yup...something to watch...move farther and farther away.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 In typical fashion the NAM finds away to keep us all (mostly)snow lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 Rgem on the other hand is farther west and mostly rain.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 Odd thing is NAM is within range...but I wouldn’t bet a cent on it...in the meantime, Wolfe if you could, or someone else could, post the CPC PNA-AO-NAO indicies? They look incredible going into December yet the temps do not seem to follow suit. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mothman Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 Hey all. Long time lurker. New to the board. Don’t know why I chose this year to get excited but alas here I am. Nice snow so far in my area though future looks questionable. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 Nws with a light accumulation before flipping.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 Euro still not enthused.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 Nao has the potentially to go negative but it seems to be split at the moment.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 PNA looks to start heading positive as we get into December.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 AO looks to take a nose dive..But you can see the spread widens.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 Throw the MJO in there for fun.. Not sure what we would want here? Lol 1/8? Looks like we are in 2? Heading to the COD? Who knows lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 Not much in the way of colder than normal probabilities through the first few days of December.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 25 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Not much in the way of colder than normal probabilities through the first few days of December.. And that’s the confusing part...MJO phase 2 is cold in the East...+PNA would give us a western ridge...what am I missing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 22 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: And that’s the confusing part...MJO phase 2 is cold in the East...+PNA would give us a western ridge...what am I missing? There's a multi-week lag that I've seen to the MJO phase and it's impact on sensible weather here. Also, we really want to see it moving to Phase 7, 8, or 1 in the winter months. Hoping the teleconnection forecast trends in Dec are legit. Throw in a -EPO and we'll be quite happy. Heck, I'd take a -AO and -EPO, even with a +NAO, we still get some nice arctic air, progressive, but cold. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 20, 2020 Author Share Posted November 20, 2020 The Alaskan vortex looks transient so not 2011/2012. I think it will take until 2nd week of December to get any cool air around here. You get a +PNA but with a +EPO/+NAO/AO it doesn't help. To me the long range looks seasonal. I don't see any extreme departures. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 I like the look of the teles...improving at least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 Nam did come in warmer like you would expect lol Still some flakes on the front end.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 3k in it's early stages a little on the colder side as well.(no surprise) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 hate to be that guy but obviously this track is not ideal. About 75 miles too far NW. but you all knew that already 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 20, 2020 Author Share Posted November 20, 2020 Buffalo is +5.8 for the month Average monthly temp. 48.6 Unlikely to finish warmest month, but likely in top 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 Talk about docile/boring weather in the lower 48. You don't see a map like this all that often in late November! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 20, 2020 Author Share Posted November 20, 2020 11 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Talk about docile/boring weather in the lower 48. You don't see a map like this all that often in late November! A month from today we will see dark blue LES warnings for all of WNY and the Tug. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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