BuffaloWeather Posted November 14, 2020 Author Share Posted November 14, 2020 Euro has some really cold air moving in at end of run 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: First call by Tues AM..A little south for my liking but we are just getting into Hi rez range.. They are ALWAYS further north than forecast 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 Nam products coming in nice and north lol Surface temps could be bit problematic at times.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 3k has only 0.2" in Watertown but over a foot 10 miles SE, I guess that's lake effect for you lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Good thing Bills game is away this week. I mean I was thinking the exact opposite. Nothing more exciting than wild weather at a game. Would have been a perfect week for a home game! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 14, 2020 Author Share Posted November 14, 2020 29 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: I mean I was thinking the exact opposite. Nothing more exciting than wild weather at a game. Would have been a perfect week for a home game! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 40 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I like seeing this trending strong but that guy doesn’t check the weather up here much. 20’ waves are routine on the Great Lakes every fall and winter. In fact they get bigger than that in the biggest events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 6 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: I like seeing this trending strong but that guy doesn’t check the weather up here much. 20’ waves are routine on the Great Lakes every fall and winter. In fact they get bigger than that in the biggest events. for Lake Ontario or Lake Erie? Lake Superior holds the record for largest wave recorded in the Great Lakes at 28.8 feet in 2017, so though it might be routine getting over 20 feet it starts maxing out the height the waves can get. I tried finding Lake Erie data and almost every article discussing 20+ foot waves had it for Lake Ontario and Lake Huron. Superior routinely goes 23-27 feet in the worst storms. It can happen on Erie but it seems to be the least likely of the Great Lakes to routinely get 20 foot wave storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 23 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: I like seeing this trending strong but that guy doesn’t check the weather up here much. 20’ waves are routine on the Great Lakes every fall and winter. In fact they get bigger than that in the biggest events. Aside from that part though the event is starting to look legit. The Grand River conservation authority over here is calling for significant storm surge and flooding in areas near the shoreline. Ill be heading down to the Dunnville-Port Colborne region tomorrow to check it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 11 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said: Aside from that part though the event is starting to look legit. The Grand River conservation authority over here is calling for significant storm surge and flooding in areas near the shoreline. Ill be heading down to the Dunnville-Port Colborne region tomorrow to check it out. I think it happens on Erie more than we realize. The orientation is so favorable for massive seiches with these storm tracks, and seiches go hand in hand with prolonged unidirectional strong winds and thus massive waves. I dunno, seems plausible Anyway, I do agree this is an intriguing system and actually trending stronger in the final 24 hours which is contrary to how a lot of these high wind events played out last year. Needless to say I’m excited! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 A little"blip" of 60+mph gust over the crib lol I guess a little elevation will help? Not the biggest wind guy but I'll get through it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 14, 2020 Author Share Posted November 14, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said: I think it happens on Erie more than we realize. The orientation is so favorable for massive seiches with these storm tracks, and seiches go hand in hand with prolonged unidirectional strong winds and thus massive waves. I dunno, seems plausible Anyway, I do agree this is an intriguing system and actually trending stronger in the final 24 hours which is contrary to how a lot of these high wind events played out last year. Needless to say I’m excited! Do you think KBUF registers a gust over 65mph? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Ya, those are starting to become some legitimate gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said: I think it happens on Erie more than we realize. The orientation is so favorable for massive seiches with these storm tracks, and seiches go hand in hand with prolonged unidirectional strong winds and thus massive waves. I dunno, seems plausible Anyway, I do agree this is an intriguing system and actually trending stronger in the final 24 hours which is contrary to how a lot of these high wind events played out last year. Needless to say I’m excited! Yep. There was a seiche near the turn of the century that was large enough to flood downtown buffalo all the way to the first ward. I think several people drowned. edit: 1844 and 78 people died. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said: Yep. There was a seiche near the turn of the century that was large enough to flood downtown buffalo all the way to the first ward. I think several people drowned. edit: 1844 and 78 people died. wow, thanks for sharing that. I guess it sets the precedence that it can/will happen again at some point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 Albany seriously needs to adjust their thermometer at the airport. It has consistently shown temperatures several degrees colder than surrounding spots this year. Every single local location around it is 44, 45, 46 degrees, and the airport has been at 41 all day (just barely hit 42 degrees). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 14, 2020 Author Share Posted November 14, 2020 Got the nest installed. =) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 14, 2020 Author Share Posted November 14, 2020 @lakeeffectkid383 Thanks for the advice. It seems on the computer stream its much wider then what I am able to see via the app. I adjusted it via the app. Going to adjust it more to the left. Also, can I post link here for people to see the stream when a lake effect band is over my house? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 BW, where's your fence? I expect to see a webcam of you holding your fence up in the 60mph winds... If we can't see snow, I want to see you posing sideways at your fence. Something that would make Jim Cantore proud. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 9 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: I'm going to be outside physically holding my fence today tomorrow afternoon. Could be worse... my roof on the “weathered” side of my house is shot. The singles are starting to dry out, curl up, and be blown off. Tried to get someone out for weeks but the companies were all so backed up I was told by a few if I wanted to jump the wait list it had to be a cash job. Couldn’t swing it so Im left hoping our violent wind storms stay to a minimum this winter. Last wind event I had to pick up about a dozen shingles that were blown off. My only saving grace is I have a full walk in attic on the third floor so in the event I do develop any leaks I can keep them from doing an damage to the interior of the house... yuck... need a good blanket of snow to come cover and protect the roof for me, but that’s not looking likely... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 14, 2020 Author Share Posted November 14, 2020 1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said: BW, where's your fence? I expect to see a webcam of you holding your fence up in the 60mph winds... If we can't see snow, I want to see you posing sideways at your fence. Something that would make Jim Cantore proud. Didnt have enough daylight to install backyard cam. Going to setup soon though! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Didnt have enough daylight to install backyard cam. Going to setup soon though! Blue Iris Software, best for time lapse and remote viewing too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 3 hours ago, mississaugasnow said: wow, thanks for sharing that. I guess it sets the precedence that it can/will happen again at some point The Great Buffalo Flood is just crazy to read about. Wish there was more about it aside from a few news articles on the memorial dates of the storm that chronicled survivor stories. They estimated the water level at Buffalo Harbor rose 22 feet in 2 hours. That rivals the storm surge of a major hurricane. Most of what is now “downtown” had water 8 feet deep. Dozens of people literally drown in their beds as the storm hit in the middle of the night. Hundreds of boats were pushed back into the creeks and canals and littered the city streets for months. Many of the now homeless actually ended up taking shelter for the winter on these boats. While the lack of a break wall system was partially blamed for the extent of the flood, the storm system itself was unique. For the days prior to the storm strong easterly winds actually pushed the lake back towards Toledo. As the storm moved East the winds turned violently from the south west, not only causing a regular seiche, but also returning the normal water level that had been pushed to the other end of the lake, in essence a double whammy impact. It’s thought the extensive beak wall system that was built in the years following the flood have prevented a repeat event. In recent years most of our surge levels have been in the 6-8’ range with the higher end events topping 10’. The big storm we had last Halloween saw an 11’ rise. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 11 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Euro has some really cold air moving in at end of run Euro is on to it. The GFS is as well but about 3 days later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 I am pretty solidly in a realistic mindset that any snow we get this upcoming winter will not last more than a couple days. I keep catching myself thinking, "Oh, is it "supposed" to be chilly like this this time of year? I think this upcoming week is going to be the exact preview of what we see for most of this winter. 50s...a day or two of 30s with snow showers...then 50s..rinse and repeat. Pacific Jet and SE Ridge will continue the theme of ruling winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 7 hours ago, mississaugasnow said: Do you think KBUF registers a gust over 65mph? Yes! I think somewhere between Buffalo harbor and Batavia could even hit 70. I would feel very confident if that frontal passage was 4 hours or so earlier 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 Boo! Hate how they close down these parks during the wind storms. Gonna limit my options for driving around tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 Nice squall line along the front.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 Look at that blast of wind surging up lake Erie. There will be a wall of water shortly behind that!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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