TugHillMatt Posted September 22, 2020 Share Posted September 22, 2020 As much as I love wintry weather, I LOVE fall and the colors and would hate to see the leaves get knocked off early with a cold blast. Plus, I would also hate to see us waste a great pattern in early fall when it would most likely be MUCH better in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_rules Posted September 22, 2020 Share Posted September 22, 2020 4th consecutive morning between 25° and 28°. Seems like an appropriate way to head into Autumn! Looking forward to some warm sunny days later this week to warm the house back up.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 22, 2020 Author Share Posted September 22, 2020 The GEFS keeps it quite cold from Sep 30th into first week of Oct. Definitely time to close the pool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted September 22, 2020 Share Posted September 22, 2020 8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: The GEFS keeps it quite cold from Sep 30th into first week of Oct. Definitely time to close the pool. I just noticed that on TT...mines been closed for the better part of 10 days now.. In my mind there was no sense sense hoping for a hot enough stretch and I do not own a heater yet...thats next year and then I may stretch it to October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 22, 2020 Author Share Posted September 22, 2020 3 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I just noticed that on TT...mines been closed for the better part of 10 days now.. In my mind there was no sense sense hoping for a hot enough stretch and I do not own a heater yet...thats next year and then I may stretch it to October Yeah this week looks good for the pool. I'll be gone though in lake george. Thinking of closing tomorrow or right when I get back next week. Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 74. Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 73. Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 76. Saturday Sunny, with a high near 79. Sunday Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 76 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 22, 2020 Author Share Posted September 22, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 22, 2020 Author Share Posted September 22, 2020 For you Syracuse guys 2010-2011 had to be one of the best. Didn't you have over 100" of snow before Christmas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted September 22, 2020 Share Posted September 22, 2020 About 180" fell in ksyr in 2010-2011.. 250"+ from Fulton to Redfield.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted September 22, 2020 Share Posted September 22, 2020 Probably one of the better years on record for Altmar/Orwell area..1995-1996 is up there as well.. City of Fulton.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 22, 2020 Author Share Posted September 22, 2020 Beginning of October looks like late Nov, not early October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_rules Posted September 22, 2020 Share Posted September 22, 2020 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: For you Syracuse guys 2010-2011 had to be one of the best. Didn't you have over 100" of snow before Christmas? If I’m thinking of the correct year, we had a thaw around Christmas and all that snow was reduced to leftover snow piles around the end of December....at least around the I81/I90 interchange where I was working at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 22, 2020 Author Share Posted September 22, 2020 Analogs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted September 22, 2020 Share Posted September 22, 2020 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Analogs Are you thinking areas like the Adirondacks and maybe the tug gets there first flakes during that time frame? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 22, 2020 Author Share Posted September 22, 2020 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: Are you thinking areas like the Adirondacks and maybe the tug gets there first flakes during that time frame? If there is a storm system around or lake effect, too far out. But definitely enough cold air above 2-3k feet for snow. From the hikers this past weekend, anything above 3500 feet was full of ice. You need to bring your microspikes already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted September 22, 2020 Share Posted September 22, 2020 7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: If there is a storm system around or lake effect, too far out. But definitely enough cold air above 2-3k feet for snow. From the hikers this past weekend, anything above 3500 feet was full of ice. You need to bring your microspikes already. Wow. Im not too familiar with hiking the way you are but that seems a few weeks early, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 22, 2020 Author Share Posted September 22, 2020 28 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Wow. Im not too familiar with hiking the way you are but that seems a few weeks early, no? For the high peaks you start needing them in mid October, a few weeks early. They can get accumulating snow there from September to June. Last year my buddy hit a whiteout up there in beginning of October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted September 22, 2020 Share Posted September 22, 2020 Not sure about where everyone else lives but the tree's around my area, are changing crazy fast. Atleast 2 weeks early it seems like. Loving this weather though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted September 22, 2020 Share Posted September 22, 2020 1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said: Wow. Im not too familiar with hiking the way you are but that seems a few weeks early, no? Its definitely early but the peaks above 4000ft see snow in every month except July and August nearly every year or every other year. Wild stuff up in the high peaks region! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted September 22, 2020 Share Posted September 22, 2020 52 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Its definitely early but the peaks above 4000ft see snow in every month except July and August nearly every year or every other year. Wild stuff up in the high peaks region! That would be awesome to see it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted September 22, 2020 Share Posted September 22, 2020 LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The nice stretch of dry weather looks like it will come to an end heading into the second half of the weekend and the first part of next week as a much more amplified pattern starts to take shape. An upper trough will dig across the upper and central Great Lakes pushing a cold front across the region on Sunday bringing the likelihood of some much needed rain and opening the door to some more seasonable temperatures for late September. A powerful shortwave will then rotate through the mean upper trough to start the new work week. This will help the trough to deepen further across the eastern U.S. while strong upper ridge builds north into western Canada. Not expecting a rain out through the entire period, however this will keep the potential for unsettled weather in the forecast through at least the first half of next week as a series of shortwaves rotate through the mean upper trough over the eastern U.S. A period of strong winds may also become possible sometime Monday or Tuesday depending on the strength and possibly a climatologically favored track of surface low pressure moving by to our west and north. Stay tuned. Otherwise, day to day cooling will occur through the period as daytime highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s on Sunday trend downward to the upper 50s to mid 60s by Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted September 22, 2020 Share Posted September 22, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 2 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Is that lake effect rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 Looks like it on the Canadian, at the very least some enhancement.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 24, 2020 Author Share Posted September 24, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted September 24, 2020 Share Posted September 24, 2020 6 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Looks like near peak conditions by Tupper Lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted September 24, 2020 Share Posted September 24, 2020 One more warmer and mostly dry day Sunday. Eventually a much cooler very fall like pattern develops during this time with increasing chances of rain. Cold front that was once to approach and bring a showery day on Sunday continues to trend slower. Increased temps more on Sunday now into the upper 70s to near 80F and now have lowered to only slight chance of rain across the board, but it would appear we are on our way to a dry forecast. Slower trend in the front continues Sunday night through Monday night as well. Was looking like due to slow moving front crossing and right entrance of upper jet that some of the region on Monday would see widespread showers with even a small risk of thunder. Not so sure on that now. Temps will be cooler than the warm weekend, but if this slower trend holds, we would still make it to the lower 70s for much of the area on Monday. Eventually, as sharp shortwave trough digging over the central CONUS lifts northeast across the lower Great Lakes, our weather will turn cooler and unsettled with showers further enhanced in intensity and coverage as cooler air flows over the warmer lakes. Could also have a period of windy conditions as well if a stronger and deepening sfc low tracks nnw of our region. Consistency in any one solution is lacking, so best to stay tuned to later forecasts for more details on when the rain and significant cooling arrives in earnest and if there will be any stronger, advisory type winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted September 24, 2020 Share Posted September 24, 2020 GFS has been pretty consistent flipping us to the cooler and wetter pattern come Oct 1. Even popping some higher elevation flakes now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted September 24, 2020 Share Posted September 24, 2020 Some decent colors starting to show up.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted September 24, 2020 Share Posted September 24, 2020 1 hour ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: GFS has been pretty consistent flipping us to the cooler and wetter pattern come Oct 1. Even popping some higher elevation flakes now. The cold blast behind that looks even more impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brentrich Posted September 24, 2020 Share Posted September 24, 2020 19 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: The cold blast behind that looks even more impressive. Signs of harsh winter coming for NY this winter, hopefully! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now