WNash Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 On 11/10/2020 at 9:32 PM, DeltaT13 said: Pretty nice squall line for the second week of November! Earlier that afternoon, Milwaukee had a 79 mph wind gust. I didn’t see any tornado reports, but the straight line winds were roaring. When I lived in Nashville, the NWS and local broadcast mets would remind their audience that November was the 2nd severe season in Tennessee. Not quite as wild as April, but we would usually get at least one tornado watch in the first part of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 12, 2020 Author Share Posted November 12, 2020 Has been showing up last few runs for Metro, something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 You can always count on the Canadian.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 It will be marginally cold enough to support lake effect snow Monday with 850mb temperatures falling to around -8C. Upsloping and ample moisture is likely to support rain or snow showers east of the lakes. Another shortwave will move through around Tuesday, and this should drag even colder air into the region with consensus 850mb temperatures across Lake Ontario dropping to around -14C by Wednesday. The greatest potential for accumulating lake effect snow is Monday night through Tuesday night. A west to northwest flow suggests steadiest lake snows would be east and southeast of the lakes. While this does not appear to be a major event, it is certainly possible that headlines (advisory or warning) will be needed at some point. Made considerable adjustments to model POP guidance to account for the lake effect snow which was underdone due to course model resolution at this timeframe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 I was enjoying our record warmth. Now rumors of snow. Tis' the season. I guess. This is upstate NY after all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 12, 2020 Author Share Posted November 12, 2020 Buffalo at +10.4 for the month Average temp: 54.5 Average high/low for today is 49/35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 2 hours ago, Syrmax said: I was enjoying our record warmth. Now rumors of snow. Tis' the season. I guess. This is upstate NY after all. Par for the course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 42 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: It’s the Canadian but that’s a lot of opportunities for snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 12z GFS is also much colder and seems to be trending towards a pattern that at the very least would be cold periods with some mild times lasting only a couple days...the battle between fall and winter might be starting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 12, 2020 Author Share Posted November 12, 2020 7 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: 12z GFS is also much colder and seems to be trending towards a pattern that at the very least would be cold periods with some mild times lasting only a couple days...the battle between fall and winter might be starting Yeah. Thinking of starting a new thread once we get a little closer and Ensembles hop on board. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 12, 2020 Author Share Posted November 12, 2020 CPC says things overall stay warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 If you’re looking for ensemble support the ECMWF still has it...the GEFS not quite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: CPC says things overall stay warm Driven by the GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brentrich Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 Weather channel just released their winter 2020-2021 outlook, I don't buy it, 3 months of above average in the NE. What do you guys think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: CPC says things overall stay warm This doesn't look real warm to me? I guess the further west the warmer, but overall not all that warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 24 minutes ago, brentrich said: Weather channel just released their winter 2020-2021 outlook, I don't buy it, 3 months of above average in the NE. What do you guys think? It wasn’t just 3 month AN it was ridiculously so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 12, 2020 Author Share Posted November 12, 2020 22 minutes ago, Flying MXZ said: This doesn't look real warm to me? I guess the further west the warmer, but overall not all that warm. Not really warm, but you need negative departures to get snow in mid/late Nov. Thinking the rest of November averages +1-3 above normals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 22 minutes ago, Flying MXZ said: This doesn't look real warm to me? I guess the further west the warmer, but overall not all that warm. Agreed that could be highs around average but lows above normal skewing the mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: Not really warm, but you need negative departures to get snow in mid/late Nov. Thinking the rest of November averages +1-3 above normals. It’s exactly why when we get to mid December and beyond averaging 1 or 2 degrees above avg puts us at the freezing mark for highs...still plenty cold enough for snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 Those are probabilities (low at that) not anomalies, we don't know if it will happen lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 Take it with a grain of salt when it comes to the lake.. Not a blockbuster but snow showers for most.. Looks similar to last event with the heaviest just to my south.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 Looks very similar to many of the events we receive lol Strong westerly band shifting to a NW multiband set up.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Looks very similar to many of the events we receive lol Strong westerly band shifting to a NW multiband set up.. That look gives many their fix just not whopper amounts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 So the latest AFD from KBUF mentions lake effect on a SW wind for the metro a potential for next Tuesday. Will depend on elevation and precipitation intensity 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Strong gusty winds and lakeshore flooding are possible Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. Accumulating lake effect snows are expected Monday night through Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 12, 2020 Author Share Posted November 12, 2020 16 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Has been showing up last few runs for Metro, something to watch. @Thinksnow18 Has been showing up last few runs. Little clipper system, cold air is the issue. We will know more once the higher res models come in next few days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 Location of "said" system is still variable obviously lol 18z was little north with this feature.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 Icon is more traditional LES with a SW passing to the south.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 what's everyones thoughts on the Sunday storm? Looks like there could be some big winds and lakeshore flooding along Lake Erie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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