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Upstate/Eastern New York


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16 hours ago, winter_rules said:

Very interesting.  I guess I didn’t realize how far inland the effect of the warm lake water really extended in the Rochester/Buffalo areas.  
 

I lived about 4 miles East of Pulaski (very close to where Wolfie just moved from) and it seemed like Lake Ontario really only influenced surface temps In the area from roughly I81 West toward the lake.  By the time you were a mile or two East of I81 you were mostly away from the biggest surface temp influence.  Slowly gaining elevation toward the East probably plays a bigger role than I realized.  

The same thing applies here. Once you get 10-15 miles inland from the lake the influence isn't that great. The predominant wind is w/sw. And lake erie is much warmer than ontario due to how shallow it is. It helps keep us warmer for longer in the fall and colder for longer in the spring. 

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21 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

Got down to 27° overnight, already the 5th time below freezing this month, ironically enough I haven't seen much in the way of frost formation, lol

Could be due to the dry weather as of late..

I see the KBUF site is not working again or they have not updated the temperature yet. It's 37 Imby, 35 in Clarence and 43 at the airport...

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33 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

I don't have a link to offer but check out WxRisk's latest post on Facebook or maybe twitter...Most interesting.  I better get the pool closed up ASAP if he's right.  Of course he's full of hubris and mongering but its usually entertaining at least.

https://m.facebook.com/WxRisk/posts/dt-on-twitter-follow-along-this-winter-httptwittercomdtwxriskcom/169919243096511/

Sez put October 1 down as a date to watch for snow in western NY.  

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Just now, cleetussnow said:

I see nothing in the models that even remotely suggests this but that is 10 days from now so I guess it's a small possibility

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59 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I see nothing in the models that even remotely suggests this but that is 10 days from now so I guess it's a small possibility

I actually just jumped on to post, somewhat sarcastically, that models are in agreement that BUF will have a snowstorm on Sept 30/Oct 1.  The trough i'm seeing on all the major models for that time period is crazy.  With all 3 models pretty consistent at the very least we can probably expect below normal temps with rain chances early to mid next week.  But snow...that would beat the October Surprise by about a week.  Hard sell on that for now.  

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28 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

I actually just jumped on to post, somewhat sarcastically, that models are in agreement that BUF will have a snowstorm on Sept 30/Oct 1.  The trough i'm seeing on all the major models for that time period is crazy.  With all 3 models pretty consistent at the very least we can probably expect below normal temps with rain chances early to mid next week.  But snow...that would beat the October Surprise by about a week.  Hard sell on that for now.  

I've seen graupel the first week of October a couple times in the last 20 years.  Accumulating snow, and feet of accumulating snow is a whole different story (and unlikely to ever happen again in our lifetimes IMO).  Definitely looks cold and windy though, will be exciting if it comes to fruition. 

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22 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

I've seen graupel the first week of October a couple times in the last 20 years.  Accumulating snow, and feet or accumulating snow is a whole different story (and unlikely to ever happen again in our lifetimes IMO).  Definitely looks cold and windy though, will be exciting if it comes to fruition. 

If this does happen, I'd say we've officially moved to 2 seasons. Summer and winter...lol

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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

It looks cold, but nothing out of the world cold...That post is a hyperbole. It's also wayyy out in time, we've seen how that turned out last winter .

image.thumb.png.2b70197577c95d579c9fa362e57717b8.png

image.thumb.png.9321152e9a38bc954726c1ee0e9845e9.png

I mean it did actually get cold this past weekend. It definitely WILL not happen like he's suggesting but I wouldn't be surprised if there are upper 40' s in the hills for highs with that type of trough.

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