wolfie09 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 I'm not sure it's because of the lake, more of "downsloping" with the dacks and tug just to the NE.. Models seem to show this a lot during winter months.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 @wolfie09 you will like the euro!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Where are you getting UKie snow maps? As always, your graphics aren’t playing nice with iPhone. I swear, I’m almost done with iPhone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 European is about 7mb stronger and more tucked in.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Where are you getting UKie snow maps? As always, your graphics aren’t playing nice with iPhone. I swear, I’m almost done with iPhone. Pivotal has it.. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=sn10_acc&rh=2020102612&fh=108&r=conus&dpdt=&mc= 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 7 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said: @wolfie09 you will like the euro!!! Weenie run...it’s Monday this might have legs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Keep in mind near the lake is above freezing, need to overcome that.. Obviously anything is possible lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 26, 2020 Author Share Posted October 26, 2020 Just now, wolfie09 said: Keep in mind near the lake is above freezing, need to overcome that.. Obviously anything is possible lol What time does storm hit Friday Night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Keep in mind near the lake is above freezing, need to overcome that.. Obviously anything is possible lol GFS-p looks pretty good. Snowfall maps are not out yet but looks like it would be 4-8 inches area wide when they do come out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: What time does storm hit Friday Night? Strictly using the euro, rain starts Thursday afternoon, starts to flip overnight from north to south, heaviest snow looks like Friday morning.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 I want to add that any measurable snow in October is win at least for me. Even if we just get 1 inch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Plenty cold enough as you get up in elevation, obviously lol Low-mid 20s during the"height" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 15 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Plenty cold enough as you get up in elevation, obviously lol Low-mid 20s during the"height" Do you have a pic of the map of NY for that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 KBUF finally mentions snow in the forecast!!! They’ve been slower to react than josh Norman on Derrick Henry’s stiff arm... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Storm reminds me of October 1993 holoween Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Meanwhile, a closed upper level low is progged to track across the southeast. This will cause the post tropical storm zeta to track northeast from the Gulf Coast into the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday night and Thursday before exiting the Mid-Atlantic coast sometime Friday. That being said, rain shower chances will increase late Wednesday night into Thursday as ascent increases and moisture is advected into the region. The better rainfall amounts Thursday appear to fall across the southern portions of the state. As the aforementioned surface low continues to track east, a cooler and drier air mass will make its way southeastward across Ontario late Thursday night into Friday. With the cooler air filtering into the region, rain showers will transition into a mix of snow and rain (for the lower elevations) or all snow (across the higher terrain) late Thursday night into Friday morning. Snow accumulations (of 1-2 inches) will be confined along the higher terrain in the Southern Tier and areas east of Lake Ontario. After dawn on Friday, radiational heating will transition showers back to all rain. With the low exiting the Atlantic coast Friday and the drier air filtering in from the north Friday, shower activity will mainly lie along the southern portions of the state and shift eastward throughout the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Still plenty to figure out.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Meanwhile, a closed upper level low is progged to track across the southeast. This will cause the post tropical storm zeta to track northeast from the Gulf Coast into the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday night and Thursday before exiting the Mid-Atlantic coast sometime Friday. That being said, rain shower chances will increase late Wednesday night into Thursday as ascent increases and moisture is advected into the region. The better rainfall amounts Thursday appear to fall across the southern portions of the state. As the aforementioned surface low continues to track east, a cooler and drier air mass will make its way southeastward across Ontario late Thursday night into Friday. With the cooler air filtering into the region, rain showers will transition into a mix of snow and rain (for the lower elevations) or all snow (across the higher terrain) late Thursday night into Friday morning. Snow accumulations (of 1-2 inches) will be confined along the higher terrain in the Southern Tier and areas east of Lake Ontario. After dawn on Friday, radiational heating will transition showers back to all rain. With the low exiting the Atlantic coast Friday and the drier air filtering in from the north Friday, shower activity will mainly lie along the southern portions of the state and shift eastward throughout the day. Always fascinated with LES. What is the least you've ever gotten in a winter? Do you benefit from Noreasters too as you lack elevation. I live on Long Island and Liberty NY and am looking to relocate Love a place that gets it from LES, Noreasters and elevation based events Where in NY State is the snow capital year after year? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 I still think its too warm for any appreciable snows but that can change and probably will! The stronger the system is the better the chances are for heavier snow as a stronger SLP will bring down the cold air over Ontario province. It's plenty cold enough for snow at night to accumulate but during the day would be tough. Off to a real early start its looking like !Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: I still think its too warm for any appreciable snows but that can change and probably will! The stronger the system is the better the chances are for heavier snow as a stronger SLP will bring down the cold air over Ontario province. It's plenty cold enough for snow at night to accumulate but during the day would be tough. Off to a real early start its looking like ! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk If you put it in this context late October sun angle is about the same as early March sun angle and while the ground is definitely colder in March than late October. The sun may not have as big of a deterrent as one might think, especially with rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 10 minutes ago, sferic said: Always fascinated with LES. What is the least you've ever gotten in a winter? Do you benefit from Noreasters too as you lack elevation. I live on Long Island and Liberty NY and am looking to relocate Love a place that gets it from LES, Noreasters and elevation based events Where in NY State is the snow capital year after year? Thanks I've been in Oswego county for about 5 years, least amount is around 100" in 2015-2016, in Fulton NY.. Coastal storms are hit or miss, probably better in the syracuse-rochester corridor, as well as the higher elevations of the catskills and eastern adirondacks.. Snow capital is easily the tug hill, somewhere between redfield, worth and barns corners imo.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said: If you put it in this context late October sun angle is about the same as early March sun angle and while the ground is definitely colder in March than late October. The sun may not have as big of a deterrent as one might think, especially with rates Freezing rain and snow is accumulating in Texas-OK-MO right now. If it can do it down there in late October mid day it can definitely do it up here. Though I admit id rather it snow at night in October/November and March/April 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 26, 2020 Author Share Posted October 26, 2020 Final call. First flakes for lower elevations, 1-3" for places above 1500 feet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 26, 2020 Author Share Posted October 26, 2020 12 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: I've been in Oswego county for about 5 years, least amount is around 100" in 2015-2016, in Fulton NY.. Coastal storms are hit or miss, probably better in the syracuse-rochester corridor, as well as the higher elevations of the catskills and eastern adirondacks.. Snow capital is easily the tug hill, somewhere between redfield, worth and barns corners imo.. Snow capital is 4-5000 feet in the Adirondacks. I've never seen so much snow and I went in a down year. Mansfield has to be up there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Final call. First flakes for lower elevations, 1-3" for places above 1500 feet. I’m going with a coating to an inch at lower elevations and 3 to 5 in the highest hills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Snow capital is 4-5000 feet in the Adirondacks. I've never seen so much snow and I went in a down year. Mansfield has to be up there too. I was going by snowfall..The "snowiest area east of the mississippi" as they claim about the tug.. Keeping snow on the ground is a different story lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 26, 2020 Author Share Posted October 26, 2020 Just now, wolfie09 said: I was going by snowfall..The "snowiest area east of the mississippi" as they claim about the tug.. Keeping snow on the ground is a different story lol Yeah that makes sense and obviously the places I posted are not livable. I do wonder what the total snowfall accumulations are up in those areas? Has to be at least 200-300" per year. There is no real way to keep track in the Dacks, I think Mansfield does though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 The tug is not much more livable haha Trust me I take rides through the tug all the time lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 14 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah that makes sense and obviously the places I posted are not livable. I do wonder what the total snowfall accumulations are up in those areas? Has to be at least 200-300" per year. There is no real way to keep track in the Dacks, I think Mansfield does though? I’m surprised there isn’t a weather station up there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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