rochesterdave Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Lock it in 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 Greatest uncertainty this forecast period will be Wednesday night through Friday morning, with the speed of the tropical system, timing of when the closed low across the Southern Rockies becomes an open wave and just how strong the surface high over the Central Great Lakes becomes all lending to the uncertainty 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 German jumped on board, at least for one run lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 GFS is not interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Well its only 4 days away so its well within range. Now it gets a bit more interesting fo sho!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 GFS-p is still interested Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Anyone have vertification scores for the gfs-p. Is it any good at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 3 hours ago, Ericjcrash said: GFS is not interested. I’m actually glad about that...when the GFS of old used to sniff things out a week or so in advance it would lose them 5 or so day out only to catch on again a couple days before. This event will happen. It might be elevation driven but someone in western, central the southern tier is getting the first accumulation with this system 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 4 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I’m actually glad about that...when the GFS of old used to sniff things out a week or so in advance it would lose them 5 or so day out only to catch on again a couple days before. This event will happen. It might be elevation driven but someone in western, central the southern tier is getting the first accumulation with this system Might be time to buy an ice scrapper for my car. Shame.....I was hoping I could hold off another month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 41 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said: Might be time to buy an ice scrapper for my car. Shame.....I was hoping I could hold off another month. Shame? Shame!?!? Shame on you! Get outta here with your, “it’s too early” nonsense. Some of us been waiting since June. ;p 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Not really watching this one but seems the EURO is still in it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 20 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Not really watching this one but seems the EURO is still in it EPS and GFS Para also has it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 28 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Not really watching this one but seems the EURO is still in it 12z euro will be key. What concerns me about the players though is that Zeta is still barely moving and all models have its remnants over us by Thursday. That’s less than 72 hours from now and it still hasn’t struck the Yucatán peninsula yet. The question then becomes if it is delayed in hitting the US til say later Wednesday or Thursday will it ever merge with the cutoff over the SW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: 12z euro will be key. What concerns me about the players though is that Zeta is still barely moving and all models have its remnants over us by Thursday. That’s less than 72 hours from now and it still hasn’t struck the Yucatán peninsula yet. The question then becomes if it is delayed in hitting the US til say later Wednesday or Thursday will it ever merge with the cutoff over the SW? Great point! Timing a tropical depression is a fools game. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Congrats SNE? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Into the icebox Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 26, 2020 Author Share Posted October 26, 2020 I'm back what did I miss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 26, 2020 Author Share Posted October 26, 2020 On 10/20/2020 at 5:38 PM, SnowLover22 said: Location/ name of trail? view looks amazing that's why I ask Mt. Rainier in Washington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 On Para, the SE March has finally stopped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 26, 2020 Author Share Posted October 26, 2020 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: 47 would be epic. Nothing but excellent tre ds the past few runs. Serious cold after seems to be legit regardless of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 26, 2020 Author Share Posted October 26, 2020 Anyone know where to get individual GEFS runs? EWALL site isn't working for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Seems to be an issue with the gefs.. College of dupage (COD) is stuck on the oct 22 6z run lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Tropical tidbits seems to be working.. Seen this posted on another board, forgot how to get to it myself lol This is from 0z.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Here we go again. At 700' in Sullivan County I'm not gonna count on much of any here, but I can reasonably assume we will see some flakes here. Elevation is key for early season events, might apply once again here. @sferic Your house in Liberty might be good for up to 3" as I understand things now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 A closed upper low is expected to track across the southern Plains Wednesday night. Remnant tropical moisture from Zeta is expected to advance through the southwest flow aloft ahead of the low, approaching the lower Great Lakes late Wednesday night and Thursday. This should result in increasing ascent and moist advection, and escalating rain chances, across the region. The rain could become moderate during the day Thursday, especially across southern portion of the area. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Cooler and drier air will makes its way southward Thursday night with any rain ending and possibly ending as some wet snow late Thursday night and Friday morning. Any minor accumulations will be confined to the higher elevations east of Lake Ontario. Afterwords, cool and dry weather will be upon our region as the upstream broad area of surface high pressure over the Central Great Lakes builds across the eastern Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Typical. The BUF disco is a like a wet blanket. Ya know, I’m not doing it this year. F them. You know how many times their LR disco discounted events last year only to have to eat their words in the last 72-84 hours? Several! At least. This board sniffs these LR events at a much better rate than they do. “Dry and cool”!!?!?!? WTF. caveat- this event probably isn’t the one to goto the mattresses on but still 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 26, 2020 Author Share Posted October 26, 2020 5 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Typical. The BUF disco is a like a wet blanket. Ya know, I’m not doing it this year. F them. You know how many times their LR disco discounted events last year only to have to eat their words in the last 72-84 hours? Several! At least. This board sniffs these LR events at a much better rate than they do. “Dry and cool”!!?!?!? WTF. caveat- this event probably isn’t the one to goto the mattresses on but still Well last year sucked, very few events. November also looks like a major torch for the entire US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: Well last year sucked, very few events. November also looks like a major torch for the entire US. I'll take a torched Nov to get a cold/snowy Dec-Mar... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 26, 2020 Author Share Posted October 26, 2020 1 minute ago, vortmax said: I'll take a torched Nov to get a cold/snowy Dec-Mar... I highly doubt we get a cold/snowy Feb/Mar in a Moderate Nina. More likely cold/snow Dec/Jan and a quick transition into spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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