BuffaloWeather Posted October 13, 2020 Author Share Posted October 13, 2020 Average first flake is next week. BUFFALO AVERAGE First Flake Oct 24 First Measurable (0.1" or more) Nov 8 First Inch Nov 18 EARLIEST EVER First Flake Sep 20, 1956 First Measurable (0.1" or more) Oct 6, 1991 First Inch Oct 10, 1906 LATEST EVER First Flake Nov 22, 1946 & 1985 First Measurable (0.1" or more) Dec 18, 2015 First Inch Jan 2, 1932 ROCHESTER AVERAGE First Flake Oct 23 First Measurable (0.1" or more) Nov 8 First Inch Nov 20 EARLIEST EVER First Flake Sep 20, 1956 First Measurable (0.1" or more) Oct 9, 1925 First Inch Oct 11, 1906 LATEST EVER First Flake Nov 20, 1918 First Measurable (0.1" or more) Dec 10, 1948 First Inch Dec 28, 2015 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 29 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Average first flake is next week. BUFFALO AVERAGE First Flake Oct 24 First Measurable (0.1" or more) Nov 8 First Inch Nov 18 EARLIEST EVER First Flake Sep 20, 1956 First Measurable (0.1" or more) Oct 6, 1991 First Inch Oct 10, 1906 LATEST EVER First Flake Nov 22, 1946 & 1985 First Measurable (0.1" or more) Dec 18, 2015 First Inch Jan 2, 1932 ROCHESTER AVERAGE First Flake Oct 23 First Measurable (0.1" or more) Nov 8 First Inch Nov 20 EARLIEST EVER First Flake Sep 20, 1956 First Measurable (0.1" or more) Oct 9, 1925 First Inch Oct 11, 1906 LATEST EVER First Flake Nov 20, 1918 First Measurable (0.1" or more) Dec 10, 1948 First Inch Dec 28, 2015 I remember ‘15. We were all so pissed on the WIVB weather blog that we didn’t receive our first inch and IIRc we blew that record out of the water by a few weeks. Looking back that was pretty much the beginning for me of understanding the highs and lows of winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 13, 2020 Author Share Posted October 13, 2020 Looks like 2nd half of October goes back to above average. SE ridge and a battleground develops. I'd take this look in winter, we would be very active. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 13, 2020 Author Share Posted October 13, 2020 1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said: I remember ‘15. We were all so pissed on the WIVB weather blog that we didn’t receive our first inch and IIRc we blew that record out of the water by a few weeks. Looking back that was pretty much the beginning for me of understanding the highs and lows of winter weather. Yeah 15-16 was a brutal winter here. Only 1" of snow up to Jan 1st. 2001-2 was like that too until christmas weekend and boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Looks like 2nd half of October goes back to above average. SE ridge and a battleground develops. I'd take this look in winter, we would be very active. I would as well, it looked like that more towards the end of winter last year, wouldn’t get much lake effect but synoptic we could cash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 13, 2020 Author Share Posted October 13, 2020 Early call but going for snowy Dec, average Jan, and below average Feb/March snowfall. Just the way I like it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 27 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Early call but going for snowy Dec, average Jan, and below average Feb/March snowfall. Just the way I like it. If that bears out I think we finish above average in snowfall but it might be due to an active LES season through mid January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 I don’t want any SE ridge. That’s been our problem. I too expect an early snowy start that will break before Christmas and leave us with another mild mid winter. Not loving it. The ridge looks to bugger us again. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 13, 2020 Author Share Posted October 13, 2020 Looking forward to some good model agreement this year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 Friday night/Saturday morning just may surprise in the highest elevations. 12z euro was a step back though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Looking forward to some good model agreement this year. Hmmmmm....I've neeeever seen this kind of battle between them....neeeeeever................................................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 00z NAM, Euro, ICON, and GFS all gave me hope of at least some flakes Friday night. NWS point and click shows it as well. Never too early to be a 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 14, 2020 Author Share Posted October 14, 2020 +1.3 for the month of October so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: +1.3 for the month of October so far. Ok that hurricane/bomb storm shows up again late in the models... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 14, 2020 Author Share Posted October 14, 2020 27 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Ok that hurricane/bomb storm shows up again late in the models... Looks strong, but I think it goes out to sea. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: +1.3 for the month of October so far. Wow. Meanwhile were +3.7 for the month. If the Euro pans out, this month may not end up all that cold as we initially assumed a week ago. The Euro solution does have some merit, in my opinion, because the Atlantic is running well above normal and that only strengthens the ridge off the coast and keeps the cold air towards the Plains. But with that impressive NAO block and Pacific block, it's debatable. I think Buffalo will end up slightly below normal for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 14, 2020 Author Share Posted October 14, 2020 1 hour ago, Snowstorms said: Wow. Meanwhile were +3.7 for the month. If the Euro pans out, this month may not end up all that cold as we initially assumed a week ago. The Euro solution does have some merit, in my opinion, because the Atlantic is running well above normal and that only strengthens the ridge off the coast and keeps the cold air towards the Plains. But with that impressive NAO block and Pacific block, it's debatable. I think Buffalo will end up slightly below normal for the month. I'd agree with slightly below as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 Bored lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 34 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Bored lol An hour 300 snowstorm on the GFS. Haven’t seen that since June. :-) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: An hour 300 snowstorm on the GFS. Haven’t seen that since June. :-) Lock it in. 1-2 feet for most of upstate! 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 14, 2020 Author Share Posted October 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Lock it in. 1-2 feet for most of upstate! Fake news 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 That will be our snowstorm for the winter. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 15, 2020 Author Share Posted October 15, 2020 A quick drone video I put together of the beautiful foliage at holiday valley 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 3 hours ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Lock it in. 1-2 feet for most of upstate! What? No Kuchera map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vicarious Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 I don't really remember the last time it was this late into October and all the yards I cut are so dry it resembles more like august. Normally I'd be fighting the weather to get everyone cut for the week but some places I haven't cut since September since we just haven't had the rain+the total sunlight per day is shrinking fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 13 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Bored lol The fantasy runs are in full effect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 The 6z Goofus is on a 24 hour bender...for entertainment purposes only please look at hour 200 to the end of the run...it is flat out predicting mid winter conditions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 15, 2020 Author Share Posted October 15, 2020 30 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: The 6z Goofus is on a 24 hour bender...for entertainment purposes only please look at hour 200 to the end of the run...it is flat out predicting mid winter conditions Tossing farther then Derrick Henry tossed Josh Norman with that stiff arm Tuesday night. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 Yeah I’m seeing a feedback trend here with the GFS...something we’ve witnessed too many times in the past...the GFS is over doing the cold and snow early in the season. It doesn’t bode well for the true winter season ahead as I’m afraid we’re going to see a lot of head fakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 15, 2020 Author Share Posted October 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Yeah I’m seeing a feedback trend here with the GFS...something we’ve witnessed too many times in the past...the GFS is over doing the cold and snow early in the season. It doesn’t bode well for the true winter season ahead as I’m afraid we’re going to see a lot of head fakes It definitely has a cold bias outside of 6-7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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