DeltaT13 Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: tropical depression to cat 4 in less then 24 hours. I don't think I've ever seen that. It figures that a stormed named Delta would have the fastest change in pressure ever! **nerd joke** 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 3 hours ago, DeltaT13 said: It figures that a stormed named Delta would have the fastest change in pressure ever! **nerd joke** And no you've got a Wind Advisory as well. 2 for 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 2 hours ago, vortmax said: And no you've got a Wind Advisory as well. 2 for 2. Haha yes!! First one of the year. A nice little warmup system for the new season. It takes an interesting/unusual path relative to normal wind events, but the storm is deepening rapidly and timing is good for max diurnal mixing so Im Intrigued... also, with full foliage could be some isolated outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 On another note, hurricane Delta still has a shot of phasing with one of those short waves early next week which would bring it blasting through WNY. I would love to see that....It’s been awhile. The GFS has had couple nice hits in the last few days although the 18z run tonight was a complete miss. Only takes a small timing change this far out so I’m keeping my fingers crossed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 2 hours ago, DeltaT13 said: On another note, hurricane Delta still has a shot of phasing with one of those short waves early next week which would bring it blasting through WNY. I would love to see that....It’s been awhile. The GFS has had couple nice hits in the last few days although the 18z run tonight was a complete miss. Only takes a small timing change this far out so I’m keeping my fingers crossed. No. I would rather enjoy the Fall Foliage that I wait 11.5 months to see. We had some good color and then last week's wind event ripped it off....starting to get good again...rinse and repeat. No wind! In my perfect world, we'd have three months of Fall color, 5 months of solid winter snowfall and snowpack, and 4 months of 60 to 75 degree highs with 50 degree lows and no humidity....without black flies, deer flies, and mosquitoes. Not happening...but I can dream. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 Beneficial rain.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Still plenty of uncertainty with guidance from Sunday afternoon through the rest of the period. Guidance still split on timing and impact from the remnants of Delta. The Canadian is in some better agreement with the GFS with a weaker area of low pressure ahead of the approaching trough from the Central U.S. The ECMWF is starting to trend this way, but timing is still well off with the remnants of Delta and the approaching trough. With this in mind, have chance POPs for most of the long term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 STW issued. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM EDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON...WEST CENTRAL LEWIS AND NORTHEASTERN OSWEGO COUNTIES... At 115 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Barnes Corners, or 10 miles south of Watertown, moving east at 30 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Minor damage to vehicles is possible. Expect wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees. Locations impacted include... Adams, Barnes Corners, Adams Center, Denmark, Smithville, Rodman, Lorraine, Copenhagen, Mannsville and Worth. This includes Interstate 81 between exits 39 and 43 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 That squall line was pretty fun. Had some decent lightning strikes, pea size hail, wind gusts to around 50mph. There were leaves flying everywhere! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 7, 2020 Author Share Posted October 7, 2020 https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2020/ecmwf-moves-towards-policy-open-data?fbclid=IwAR0k2inU85oBvrB1W-R1KdcYKUH7W-n8FcE0vNTL_tGnTqnoEGEmbt1WuRU 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 KALB reported 54kt gust. Nice! KALB 071951Z 26034G54KT 3SM +TSRA SCT040CB BKN060 BKN090 17/09 A2958 RMK AO2 PK WND 28054/1951 LTG DSNT W-N RAB51 TSE46B48 PRESRR SLP016 FRQ LTGICCG W-N TS W-N MOV SE P0000 T01720094 KALB 071948Z COR 24016G22KT 10SM TS SCT040CB BKN060 BKN090 18/10 A2950 RMK AO2 PK WND 23028/1913 LTG DSNT W-N TSB48 FRQ LTGICCG W-N TS W-N MOV SE Edit: Now 59kts! KALB 071956Z 28058KT 1SM R01/4000VP6000FT +TSRA BKN035CB OVC045 17/09 A2959 RMK AO2 PK WND 27059/1952 LTG DSNT W-NE PRESRR FRQ LTGICCG ALQDS TS ALQDS ALQDS MOV SE T01720094 PNO $= 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geez150 Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 On 10/5/2020 at 9:36 PM, Thinksnow18 said: Not that I put much stock in any long range models, I do believe the norm will be milder winters overall to the mean. Not to say severe winter weather won't occur, however, the days of long cold snaps with small warmups are replaced by longer mild stretches with shots of cold...reminiscent of last year. Unfortunately, I believe you are right. I wish the people in the know, that set up the parameters for weather forecast models wouldn't use old data for winter. Say nothing past the last 10 years, as it seems something has truly changed in our winters, this last decade. The only good winter I would really count would be winter of 2014/2015. I being a snowmobiler base all my winters as good or bad based on rideable snow longevity, cold and 3 inches of snow on the ground day after day does nothing for me (except get me excited for more), nor does a big dumping of snow fallowed by 38⁰-40⁰ days. I long for the days of no worries of a warm up/blow torch to ruin my winters. I don't need to be buried alive with snow or live in sub zero temps. Average snow and cold would be great as long as we saw no major warm ups...Rant over, lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 5 minutes ago, Geez150 said: Unfortunately, I believe you are right. I wish the people in the know, that set up the parameters for weather forecast models wouldn't use old data for winter. Say nothing past the last 10 years, as it seems something has truly changed in our winters, this last decade. The only good winter I would really count would be winter of 2014/2015. I being a snowmobiler base all my winters as good or bad based on rideable snow longevity, cold and 3 inches of snow on the ground day after day does nothing for me (except get me excited for more), nor does a big dumping of snow fallowed by 38⁰-40⁰ days. I long for the days of no worries of a warm up/blow torch to ruin my winters. I don't need to be buried alive with snow or live in sub zero temps. Average snow and cold would be great as long as we saw no major warm ups...Rant over, lol. Well said. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 Just 11 days to go.. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 5 hours ago, DeltaT13 said: That squall line was pretty fun. Had some decent lightning strikes, pea size hail, wind gusts to around 50mph. There were leaves flying everywhere! We had a leaf blizzard here during that storm. Trees are down to 1/3 foliage now. It's going to be the earliest we have wrapped up leaf cleaning in the 20 years we have been here. Usually we are just starting now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 8, 2020 Share Posted October 8, 2020 We had quite the storm roar through here around 2 pm. Looked like several cloud-to-ground strikes around my work building. My students were so amped up by it...we watched for a couple minutes, and then I had to close the blinds because it was distracting...for them AND me. lol I am actually a bit surprised by the amount of fall colors that survived the beating today. On to the 3rd round of color changes.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 8, 2020 Author Share Posted October 8, 2020 GFS has an elevation based LES event next week. Over a foot in boston hills. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 8, 2020 Share Posted October 8, 2020 4 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: GFS has an elevation based LES event next week. Over a foot in boston hills. Man the GFS is making up for lost time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 8, 2020 Share Posted October 8, 2020 So just as rain is wet and snow is cold the euro has nothing even close to the gfs runs have had for days but at varying timeframes. I see the GFS is in regular season form already with cold blasts being pushed back as we get closer to that time frame...some things never change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 8, 2020 Share Posted October 8, 2020 The 6z would have most of the Great Lakes and NE in the 30’s and 40’s for about 7 days beginning around the 17th. I’m not sure what is smoking but please share with the rest of us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted October 8, 2020 Share Posted October 8, 2020 Pretty good power outages from just north of here to the Albany area. I had nothing of consequence down but just north must have gotten some good wind! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted October 8, 2020 Share Posted October 8, 2020 1 hour ago, Flying MXZ said: Pretty good power outages from just north of here to the Albany area. I had nothing of consequence down but just north must have gotten some good wind! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 8, 2020 Author Share Posted October 8, 2020 Alright, I'm definitely closing my pool this weekend. Going to go for one last swim. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 8, 2020 Share Posted October 8, 2020 Gfs still has some fantasy lake effect day 9/10.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 3 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Gfs still has some fantasy lake effect day 9/10.. If the KC game gets flexed you Sunday maybe an October Snow Game? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 17 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Alright, I'm definitely closing my pool this weekend. Going to go for one last swim. You must have a heater? I closed mine about 3 weeks ago. Thankfully, it was a hot summer with just enough rain to make up for losses (I'm on a well so refilling pool from that isn't an option). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 First subfreezing night in October.. Came up just short the last few.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 9, 2020 Author Share Posted October 9, 2020 55 minutes ago, Syrmax said: You must have a heater? I closed mine about 3 weeks ago. Thankfully, it was a hot summer with just enough rain to make up for losses (I'm on a well so refilling pool from that isn't an option). I don't actually, just a solar cover. But when its 70s and sunny I enjoy floating around in the water. I also jump in and out after my long runs as I'm overheated. I used to go swimming in lake huron every summer with water temps in the high 50s/low 60s. I'm definitely warm blooded. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 9, 2020 Author Share Posted October 9, 2020 Another long duration LER/LES band for several days next week on GFS 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now