Upstate/Eastern New York

[lakeeffectkid383]

I’m calling it now. First lake effect snow warning of the season coming for Erie County. I like the probabilities of 6”+ for most of Erie County. This may surprise some. 

[wolfie09]

Sizeable synoptic snowstorm on the ukmet..

 

[BuffaloWeather]

UKIE

[BuffaloWeather]

Same post, same time wolfie. Great snow minds think alike.

[BuffaloWeather]

GFS

GEM

[BuffaloWeather]

Members are still all over the place, concentrating on track near Cleveland.

[wolfie09]

European won't be following the ukmet that's for sure, not that I expected it to anyway lol

[DeltaT13]

A lot of things to like about that 12z GFS run.  I mean the first storm is a miss but thats a solid 10 days thereafter of below normal temps with transient spurts of snow and some multi band lake effect.  Should be a real nice opportunity for the snowmakers to get a good base at the resorts.  Snowboarding/skiing is one of the few things I will feel fairly safe doing this winter.
Just one run but at least we have something more than this storm to look forward too.  

[Buckeyes_Suck]

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Members are still all over the place, concentrating on track near Cleveland.

So it looks like sw flow afterwards, just a question of temp and moisture right?

[wolfie09]

Models continue to come into better agreement with regards to
the big picture weather pattern that will impact our area
through much of next week. That said, resolving the finer
details with respect to sensible weather at the surface is still
far from certain, especially in the Tuesday through Thursday
period.

For the start of the new work week, confidence continues to grow for
the likelihood of a widespread soaking rainfall on Monday. A
sharpening upper level trough over the mid Mississippi Valley will
be in the process of becoming a large deepening cut-off upper level
closed low as it phases with a weaker southern stream system while
moving into the lower Ohio Valley. This will allow a weak surface
low over the lower Mississippi Valley originally associated with the
southern upper level feature, to begin to rapidly deepen as it
accelerates northeast along or just west of the spine of the
Appalachians. Plentiful available moisture and strong forcing will
provide somewhere in the neighborhood of a 12 hour period of steady
rain. At this point, potential rainfall amounts still look to be
around or possibly a little more than an inch overall. P-type will
remain all liquid with the main area of precipitation on Monday as
southerly flow keeps warm air locked in place across the forecast
area. There will also be the potential for some stronger winds on
Monday, however that will depend on the exact track of the low,
which as of now is either right over or just west of our forecast
area. This will be critical as to how strong the winds could
potentially get. If the surface low remains to the west of the area,
stronger winds will be possible.

The entire system will become vertically stacked as it slowly
weakens while rotating about somewhere from the eastern Great Lakes
to southern Quebec Tuesday into Wednesday. This will place our
region in a much more showery type regime, with likely periods of
dry time built in, especially away from any lake influences. That
said, this will allow cooler air to filter in across the area from
the west, with the air off the deck cold enough to produce a lake
response downwind of the lakes. Precipitation will possibly mix with
rain over the lower terrain during the daytime, with p-type
remaining all snow across the higher terrain. There will likely be
some accumulating snowfall, especially in lake prone areas across
the higher terrain. To speculate on anything in the way of any snow
amounts is not possible at this point.

There are some hints that the main closed upper low will pull away
to the northeast by Thursday, however upper trough looks to remain
intact over the Northeast. Cyclonic flow and a general west to
northwest flow will keep at least the chance for some precipitation
in the forecast.

Temperatures will slowly fall through the period. Daytime highs in
the upper 40s to mid 50s on Monday, will fall into the 30s for the
mid-week timeframe.

[Thinksnow18]

8 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Models continue to come into better agreement with regards to
the big picture weather pattern that will impact our area
through much of next week. That said, resolving the finer
details with respect to sensible weather at the surface is still
far from certain, especially in the Tuesday through Thursday
period.

For the start of the new work week, confidence continues to grow for
the likelihood of a widespread soaking rainfall on Monday. A
sharpening upper level trough over the mid Mississippi Valley will
be in the process of becoming a large deepening cut-off upper level
closed low as it phases with a weaker southern stream system while
moving into the lower Ohio Valley. This will allow a weak surface
low over the lower Mississippi Valley originally associated with the
southern upper level feature, to begin to rapidly deepen as it
accelerates northeast along or just west of the spine of the
Appalachians. Plentiful available moisture and strong forcing will
provide somewhere in the neighborhood of a 12 hour period of steady
rain. At this point, potential rainfall amounts still look to be
around or possibly a little more than an inch overall. P-type will
remain all liquid with the main area of precipitation on Monday as
southerly flow keeps warm air locked in place across the forecast
area. There will also be the potential for some stronger winds on
Monday, however that will depend on the exact track of the low,
which as of now is either right over or just west of our forecast
area. This will be critical as to how strong the winds could
potentially get. If the surface low remains to the west of the area,
stronger winds will be possible.

The entire system will become vertically stacked as it slowly
weakens while rotating about somewhere from the eastern Great Lakes
to southern Quebec Tuesday into Wednesday. This will place our
region in a much more showery type regime, with likely periods of
dry time built in, especially away from any lake influences. That
said, this will allow cooler air to filter in across the area from
the west, with the air off the deck cold enough to produce a lake
response downwind of the lakes. Precipitation will possibly mix with
rain over the lower terrain during the daytime, with p-type
remaining all snow across the higher terrain. There will likely be
some accumulating snowfall, especially in lake prone areas across
the higher terrain. To speculate on anything in the way of any snow
amounts is not possible at this point.

There are some hints that the main closed upper low will pull away
to the northeast by Thursday, however upper trough looks to remain
intact over the Northeast. Cyclonic flow and a general west to
northwest flow will keep at least the chance for some precipitation
in the forecast.

Temperatures will slowly fall through the period. Daytime highs in
the upper 40s to mid 50s on Monday, will fall into the 30s for the
mid-week timeframe.

I was just going to add that ScroogeBUF doesn’t like the next week potential...surprise 

[rochesterdave]

A track into CNY is just anomalous. Its my favorite track but only happens once or twice a year and sometimes rides a front. The true A’s that go into CNY are monsters for Rochester. 
BUF looking good in the aftermath. 

[TugHillMatt]

Oh, look at that...Syracuse overperforms as usual and cracks 60 degrees today while everybody else is in the 40s to mid 50s.

Lol. Never fails.

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

Is it a good thing... or a bad thing... that every GFS run gets better and better with snowfall output?

 

 

[BuffaloWeather]

8 hours ago, Luke_Mages said:

So it looks like sw flow afterwards, just a question of temp and moisture right?

Yeah, but cold air is defintely lacking. If there is a lake snow event, if may be elevation driven.

[BuffaloWeather]

New thread!