Snowstorms Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 The only storm in recent times that I can think of that even comes remotely close to the set-up depicted on the models would be the late Feb 2010 storm. See link below and look at the 500mb maps and Sea Level Pressure maps. http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2010/25-Feb-10-NationalRadarImagery.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 25 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Such as Feb 2015, by far the coldest month in Buffalos history. These types of months are the rare exceptions to the rule. As long as we get snow I'm fine. We've been right around average for snowfall last 30 years, even a small increase actually. https://www.weather.gov/buf/BUF_top10 In our lifetimes this area will still be one of the best metro areas in the US for snow. Just look at what the average high was for the week of one of the best storms in history, snovember. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 Gfs yuck lol Even wrap around moisture in the form of rain.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 9 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Gfs yuck lol Even wrap around moisture in the form of rain.. Wow. The whole northern stream system is basically gone now. Cold air is less deep and wraps in much earlier. This storm is just about done. The northern stream storm is still in the gulf of Alaska (so maybe a sliver of hope yet) but this is trending in a really bad direction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 25, 2020 Author Share Posted November 25, 2020 Yeah, that was a weird evolution. GEFS is a little different. But unless we see the low pressure strengthening quite rapidly we likely see a rain storm as the only "cool" air is self generated from the low pressure system. A 996 MB low isn't going to cut it. Lots of spread on the ENS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 Obviously a thread the needle/ low probability deal. But fun to watch. With the indices being what they are, we should see something interesting in early December, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 18Z NAVGEM looks interesting still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 This is starting to suck 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 If I was a betting person, I'd go with a solution closer to the EC than the GFS etal for next week. We've seen this how many times in the past 2 decades? Regardless, it's not much of anything snow-wise for most of us other than the usual bullseye LES spots off of Erie and the 6 toothless people living on the Tug (excluding Wolfie of course ). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 26, 2020 Author Share Posted November 26, 2020 I'll see you guys later next month when we get some cold air around here. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 I'm new here, but damn you LE guys are something else... anything less than a foot is unmentionable. Yeah I have place (for now) with very notable elevation in Deleware co. That often leads to anomalous early andnlaye season snows...But coming from Queens anything over 40" is a great season. My new house in Amsterdam averages 70". Its usually going to be a boring way to average but God damn it's better than the <30" I'm used to. Yes I'm accustomed to ridiculous coastal storms with extreme solutions where you could get your seasonal average in a given system usually with true blizzard conditions but guys please calm down. You'll live with your 100"/yr. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 26, 2020 Author Share Posted November 26, 2020 6 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: I'm new here, but damn you LE guys are something else... anything less than a foot is unmentionable. Yeah I have place (for now) with very notable elevation in Deleware co. That often leads to anomalous early andnlaye season snows...But coming from Queens anything over 40" is a great season. My new house in Amsterdam averages 70". Its usually going to be a boring way to average but God damn it's better than the <30" I'm used to. Yes I'm accustomed to ridiculous coastal storms with extreme solutions where you could get your seasonal average in a given system usually with true blizzard conditions but guys please calm down. You'll live with your 100"/yr. 200" or bust. Also has to include 1 3 footer minimum. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 1 hour ago, Ericjcrash said: I'm new here, but damn you LE guys are something else... anything less than a foot is unmentionable. Yeah I have place (for now) with very notable elevation in Deleware co. That often leads to anomalous early andnlaye season snows...But coming from Queens anything over 40" is a great season. My new house in Amsterdam averages 70". Its usually going to be a boring way to average but God damn it's better than the <30" I'm used to. Yes I'm accustomed to ridiculous coastal storms with extreme solutions where you could get your seasonal average in a given system usually with true blizzard conditions but guys please calm down. You'll live with your 100"/yr. Many of us live in these areas to get good snows. When the lake holds out on us, we become bitter spouses.................. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 Nobody wins! Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 26, 2020 Author Share Posted November 26, 2020 13 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Nobody wins! Lol That's a nice SW flow though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 26, 2020 Author Share Posted November 26, 2020 Marginal conditions, but that's a 24 hour decent WSW/SW flow on Euro. Would easily be double digits somewhere. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 Yeah, looks decent for us WSW/SW off Ontario, as does the icon, I'll take it lol Canadian and GFS not as favorable, on to "tomorrow".. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 Cold and snowy conditions may start to appear the first week of Dec but who knows how long it will last cause its been tough around here to get any sustainable cold air as of late but we'll see. Once again, at least its behaving somewhat like Fall and not full blown Winter in November! Happy Thanksgiving Y'allSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 For entertainment purposes at this point. But interesting to note the HP placement. One would think that would allow for cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 Icon Fwiw 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 Even the farthest east guidance has rain in CNY lol They really have no shot with this one, WNY/NNY still hanging in there lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geez150 Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 Yup that's the problem/million dollar question Freak. Do we get any average long term cold to hang around longer than a two day window. Storm watching and snow fall means nothing if it is turning into mud pies and flooded basements in two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geez150 Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 Also Happy Thanksgiving to you all. I will be more than grateful this Thanksgiving for average temps and average to slightly above average snowfall with no massive warm ups! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 The GFS run at 6z does have quite the cold air streak for about 7 days after the storm. And some back door chances as well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 Latest Icon is back west with mostly synoptic rain..A nice SW flow sets up on the backside.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 GFS starting to get there wrt Lake effect..I need more of WSW Imby, hopefully things improve off Ontario as we get closer lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 Still going for the NW Crew.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 I think the lake effect idea is going to happen...the question is is the cold air going to be deep enough or will the difference in the warm lake offset that? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 Cold enough lol Surface seems to be more marginal towards the lake shore.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 #Evaporativecooling 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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