wolfie09 Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 That's rough lol Canadian even throwing the coast some snow but CNY? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 Yeah, it kills me. I avoided ranting about it last night...other than to say they all looked meh. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 Given how far out these features are any slight speed change to the shortwaves within the jetstreak could have big implications on early next week`s weather. There is also a lot of uncertainty as to how much cold air eventually filters in behind the synoptic storm system, with the 00Z deterministic models even now right on the threshold for rain/snow by Wednesday with the 850 hPa temperatures around -5 to -8C. Rain ahead of these upstream shortwaves will likely arrive late Sunday night and into Monday...and will use low likely PoPs for this...that even without a phasing jet...still has high probability of occuring. Thereafter will just use chance Pops with a mix of rain and snow Tuesday due to a lot of uncertainty among the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 25, 2020 Author Share Posted November 25, 2020 6Z GFS looked good for lake effect. There just isn't a ton of cold air. We're relying upon the early season high temps of the lake to create enough disparity to create lift. Both the synoptic and LES is marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 Our first storm is a GL Runner. As I expected. It should set up a SW wind LES event for you guys in BUF. Here in the ROC and SYR, we get nothing. And I’m not hanging my hat on a nor’easter that far away. Ugh. Off to a fine start Stanley. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 25, 2020 Author Share Posted November 25, 2020 December 1995 analog starting to show up for December. We take. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 26 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: December 1995 analog starting to show up for December. We take. Assuming that’s for Buffalo lake effect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 Icon with a later phase fwiw, crushes WNY..I doubt it will phase late enough to save CNY lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Icon with a later phase fwiw, crushes WNY..I doubt it will phase late enough to save CNY lol Going to be interesting to see the snowfall outputs on this one. The icon doesn’t usually offer up extreme events this far out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 If it came to fruition the way the ICON depicts, someone in SW NY gets 3 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 Entertainment purposes only. It’s gonna GL run IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 25, 2020 Author Share Posted November 25, 2020 14 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Assuming that’s for Buffalo lake effect? yeah 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 43 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: December 1995 analog starting to show up for December. We take. Syracuse had 171 inches of snow and Fulton 274 inches (holy cow, 100 inch difference!) that winter. I will take it please. Also a reminder of why I need to move 10 miles north. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 Damn. I wish I lived in a true LES zone. Can you all imagine how nuts I’d be with that amount of junk being pumped into my veins? My buddy has a cabin just opposite the Hill in W Adirondacks, Brantingham, - I’m gonna try and get up there for one big one this year. Unfortunately, my money making hasnt kept up with the insane property value inflation up there. Waterfront cabins that were 225k two years ago are now 375-400 and you can’t even buy one (they go so fast). So my dream of owning a property up there is likely delayed. Luckily, my buddy is kind. If he ain’t using it and it’s not rented out, I can go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 6 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Syracuse had 171 inches of snow and Fulton 274 inches (holy cow, 100 inch difference!) that winter. I will take it please. Also a reminder of why I need to move 10 miles north. lol The good news is that, as we all know, model output changes in time, esp the further out it in time that it goes. Sort of the worst thing is to be jackpotted on Day 7 thru 14 on a run. Cuz that rarely materializes. Of course, if recent GFS runs are accurate...we're Bogged till mid December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 Early on a little more separation.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 Huge difference from 6 to 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 WNY gonna get crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 Time to turn my attention to lake effect Icon looks really good on that front.. Obviously things can change with 6+ days left.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 Stationary dump in WNY. Jealousy intensifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 Ouch lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 More ouch lol Now everyone back to rain.. Would be a heck of a storm lol 1/2"-1" of ice followed by 3"-6" and then rain.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 Precipitation starts Monday evening and cuts off Friday evening..lol We could have some breaks in there, verbatim.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 25, 2020 Author Share Posted November 25, 2020 The model variance is insane and 2 shortwaves involved and lack of any true cold air source. Won't be figured out until 1-2 days beforehand, and even that is debatable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 45 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Syracuse had 171 inches of snow and Fulton 274 inches (holy cow, 100 inch difference!) that winter. I will take it please. Also a reminder of why I need to move 10 miles north. lol I closed on my house on November 9, 1995 in the middle of a lake effect storm. From then through December it seemed like I was snow-blowing 2-3 times a week. I thought wow, I’m in the jackpot zone. It’s been downhill ever since. BTW, that was the snowiest November on record in Syracuse. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 25, 2020 Author Share Posted November 25, 2020 GEM is about 12-18 hrs quicker and stronger which leads to the cutting. GEM GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 At least we have something to watch but the GTA will need to thread the needle big time to see this pattern produce a winter storm (The southern GTA and Niagara. Other parts have already seen a snowstorm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 Canadian also has another system coming up the coast that looks like it hurts our chances for lake effect (at least initially) lol So much going on that's for sure.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 8 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: I closed on my house on November 9, 1995 in the middle of a lake effect storm. From then through December it seemed like I was snow-blowing 2-3 times a week. I thought wow, I’m in the jackpot zone. It’s been downhill ever since. BTW, that was the snowiest November on record in Syracuse. Ha! Well, this year, you have been doing much better than most of us in Onondaga County. When I first moved to Upstate New York, I thought, "Wow, I moved into a jackpot - " Oh, who am I kidding...I moved to Upstate New York and the climate has been downhill since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 54 minutes ago, Syrmax said: The good news is that, as we all know, model output changes in time, esp the further out it in time that it goes. Sort of the worst thing is to be jackpotted on Day 7 thru 14 on a run. Cuz that rarely materializes. Of course, if recent GFS runs are accurate...we're Bogged till mid December. One of my favorite things about living in the Great Lakes region is you can usually get some surprises in there...even if the pattern is meh. The pattern has been so infiltrated with either Pacific air or SE Ridging the past couple winters that even our location/generally lower elevation can't make much of anything work in it. If we could just get some marginal cold air that hangs in for longer than 24 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now