wolfie09 Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 Need a perfectly placed phase to save CNY or it's riding inland lol 6z kept them separate and we had some rain and backend flakes lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 Yowzer. This would be an inland runner. It’d go west of this if you ask me (I know, nobody asked lol). A track up into CNY is climatologically pretty rare for an A. It’ll probably go up the coast or into Michigan. Now we hope for an eastward trend. Fun to watch for sure!! Solid cartoon of A vs B. I’m not sure why everyone found it so funny? Simplistic? I guess. But pretty accurate. The Bs almost always give WNY a front end thump followed by rapid redevelopment just S of NYC and the fun begins for ENY while we warm and drizzle. A’s are usually good for CNY and ENY. The big ones can get WNY in on the action (Storm of the Century 93). Happy Thanksgiving everyone. I’m so glad to be back having fun watching this stuff! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 24, 2020 Author Share Posted November 24, 2020 2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Yowzer. This would be an inland runner. It’d go west of this if you ask me (I know, nobody asked lol). A track up into CNY is climatologically pretty rare for an A. It’ll probably go up the coast or into Michigan. Now we hope for an eastward trend. Fun to watch for sure!! Solid cartoon of A vs B. I’m not sure why everyone found it so funny? Simplistic? I guess. But pretty accurate. The Bs almost always give WNY a front end thump followed by rapid redevelopment just S of NYC and the fun begins for ENY while we warm and drizzle. A’s are usually good for CNY and ENY. The big ones can get WNY in on the action (Storm of the Century 93). Happy Thanksgiving everyone. I’m so glad to be back having fun watching this stuff! It's definitely rare, but it does happen on occasion. As much as 62 inches of snow blanketed the Ohio Valley and Northeast in November 1950 https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/great-appalachian-snowstorm-november-1950 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Yowzer. This would be an inland runner. It’d go west of this if you ask me (I know, nobody asked lol). A track up into CNY is climatologically pretty rare for an A. It’ll probably go up the coast or into Michigan. Now we hope for an eastward trend. Fun to watch for sure!! Solid cartoon of A vs B. I’m not sure why everyone found it so funny? Simplistic? I guess. But pretty accurate. The Bs almost always give WNY a front end thump followed by rapid redevelopment just S of NYC and the fun begins for ENY while we warm and drizzle. A’s are usually good for CNY and ENY. The big ones can get WNY in on the action (Storm of the Century 93). Happy Thanksgiving everyone. I’m so glad to be back having fun watching this stuff! That type of track (CNY) is perfect for Immediate Buffalo-Youngstown and Niagara/GTA. Too far west and were mostly rain and East well its Rochester-CNY storm with Buffalo-Niagara normally still getting decent 3-6/4-8 but not the big amounts. GTA in the east version literally comes down to miles, 20-30 miles more west and we can salvage 2-4" 20-30 miles closer to coast and its just cloudy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 24, 2020 Author Share Posted November 24, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 10 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Yowzer. This would be an inland runner. It’d go west of this if you ask me (I know, nobody asked lol). A track up into CNY is climatologically pretty rare for an A. It’ll probably go up the coast or into Michigan. Now we hope for an eastward trend. Fun to watch for sure!! Solid cartoon of A vs B. I’m not sure why everyone found it so funny? Simplistic? I guess. But pretty accurate. The Bs almost always give WNY a front end thump followed by rapid redevelopment just S of NYC and the fun begins for ENY while we warm and drizzle. A’s are usually good for CNY and ENY. The big ones can get WNY in on the action (Storm of the Century 93). Happy Thanksgiving everyone. I’m so glad to be back having fun watching this stuff! I think is was more because vort was joking/sarcastic since we never see millers A's anymore lol BW was nice enough to post it even though it was more tongue and cheek, I got a little chuckle lol No malicious intent.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 Can Sullivan County in the Catskills possibly get a dusting tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 This run may be to far inland lol We'll see.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 Break out the shorts? Lol Definitely a possibility if it phases to soon which it does on the euro.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 24, 2020 Author Share Posted November 24, 2020 UK and Euro west into michigan. Also not a lot of cold air around, lots of variables into play. High bust potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 A rather substantial lake effect band set up over me last night. Unfortunately temperatures were a degree or two too warm through most of it. Towards the end the temperature fell to 32 and we were able to get a small slushy accumulation. I measured 0.75 inch of liquid this morning. If it was all snow at lake effect ratios there might be a foot of snow on the ground this morning. As it is I measured 0.4 inch of slush.I agree, if only it was a few degrees colder!! It'll come though, and I like these kinds of Falls versus the past few yrs where we get Winter in November and then a warm Christmas then again Cold after the New Year. This same scenario has happened the last 5yrs or so it seems but Not this yr, its finally acting like a Fall where we gradually step down and when she hits lets hope she finally sticks and this might be the yr it happens but we wait!!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: UK and Euro west into michigan. Also not a lot of cold air around, lots of variables into play. High bust potential. Yes but euro still brings lake effect Tuesday and Wednesday on a SW flow...at least according to the model 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 Model guidance continues to diverge significantly from Sunday night into the start of the new work week. Current guidance indicates the presence of a 500mb closed low that has been drifting over the southwest during the weekend will propagate eastward, potentially phasing with a deep longwave trough to the north. This amplified upper level trough and associated surface cyclone are then progged to impact the area Monday and Tuesday, overspreading the area with precipitation. Due large discrepancies with the timing, location, and dynamics of this phasing pattern across long-range guidance, have increasing PoPs Monday morning before keeping only chance PoPs through Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures on Sunday and Monday are expected to be at or above normal before cold air advection kicks in late Monday and into Tuesday, also marking a possible transition from mostly liquid precip to snow for much of the area by Tuesday morning. Any snow accumulations and the possibility of a lake response in a NW flow will be difficult to determine until model guidance comes to a better consensus with the track of this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 18z coming in Way west now with a faster phase. I think we have had every possible scenario in the span of 4 runs. It's going to be a rollercoaster of emotions if this thing keeps teasing us.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 1 minute ago, DeltaT13 said: 18z coming in Way west now with a faster phase. I think we have had every possible scenario in the span of 4 runs. It's going to be a rollercoaster of emotions if this thing keeps teasing us.... I never had a chance. Either way someone should end up with some decent LE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 Fun while it lasted. Lol. SW LES opportunities afterward seem like the only chance now. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 Crazy run on the 18z GFS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 Its gonna snow quite heavily later on tonight with the passage of a WF so someone might end up with at at least something to look at, lol, unfortunately it doesn't last too long.Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 Looks like they are putting the boom in early this year... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 Finally got a SOLID BAND.....of virga. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 Finally got a SOLID BAND.....of virga.If you want snow, you picked a horrible spot for sure, lol, but I'm in the same boat unfortunately Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 2 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: If you want snow, you picked a horrible spot for sure, lol, but I'm in the same boat unfortunately Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk I mean, holy moley, I thought it was just a fluke last year....but NW winds are CRAP for this area. Truly, WNW and soooometimes Northerly flow seem to be the only flows that can provide for this area. Horrible transition zone. So maddening. Still looking for something in the Granby/Hannibal/S. Fulton areas. Loosely looking at Volney, but hesitate with a half hour plus commute. It'll warm up tonight and THEN the precip. will reach the ground as rain...or it'll just be a virga "storm" all night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 Looks like Rochester is snowing right now. Dusting on vehicles. http://rochesterwebcam.com/live-webcams/rochester-new-york-park-avenue-cam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 5 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Looks like Rochester is snowing right now. Dusting on vehicles. http://rochesterwebcam.com/live-webcams/rochester-new-york-park-avenue-cam Can confirm. We have moderate fluffy snow, nice dendrites. Air temp is 31.5 so it’s sticking a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 Just now, DeltaT13 said: Can confirm. We have moderate fluffy snow, nice dendrites. Air temp is 31.5 so it’s sticking a bit. Nice! Enjoy. I'm hoping some of it can make it here. I would love to go for a late night snow walk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 Crazy 7 day. Looks like a spring wx pattern. Upper levels spinning around like pinwheels 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: Crazy 7 day. Looks like a spring wx pattern. Upper levels spinning around like pinwheels Looks absolutely putrid for most of our region. I realize we have some chances for something to work out through next week...but yuck. Most of North America looks meh. The Midwest looks to have the best chances at this point. Managed to get a little bit of snow here in the last hour...like one tenth of an inch...lol. But, I went for my late night walk and am enjoying staying up late with no work the rest of the week. (Well, I do have a gazillion papers to grade...) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 0z euro doesn’t swirl around as much, in fact looks much cleaner than the GFS. Both would deliver LES to the metro, but in different time frames...the CNY crew will love that by the end of the run a nor’easter looks to hit you...in euro we trust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said: 0z euro doesn’t swirl around as much, in fact looks much cleaner than the GFS. Both would deliver LES to the metro, but in different time frames...the CNY crew will love that by the end of the run a nor’easter looks to hit you...in euro we trust Yeah and it still finds a way to be a mix for most of CNY lol Overall the run was blah.. Even any potential LES looks blah..6z Gfs looked pretty good for some SW/WSW so we'll see.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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