rochesterdave Posted November 23, 2020 Share Posted November 23, 2020 34 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Yup! Unfortunately for me, my job's location in Baldwinsville is at minimum 40 minutes from a good snow retention area outside of Upstate tropics. Not willing to do a long commute, so remain, I shall...and live vicariously through webcams and snow on car rooftops...lol I’ve missed your catastrophe takes. Lol. I feel ya. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 23, 2020 Share Posted November 23, 2020 4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: I’ve missed your catastrophe takes. Lol. I feel ya. Lol. I teach ELA, so my writing is often filled with dramatizations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 23, 2020 Share Posted November 23, 2020 Wow. Toronto with 19cms according to Twitter. What is that? 7.5”? Not bad. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 23, 2020 Share Posted November 23, 2020 I just looked this up to make certain it was correct...Youngstown NY to Toronto across Lake Ontario is 33 miles. That’s all the furthest point of the Niagara frontier missed out on a half foot plus snows and roughly 60 miles from the metro. Perspective. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 23, 2020 Share Posted November 23, 2020 So if the 00z Euro has its way then the Nov 30th Dec 1st time frame would deliver a impactful LES event in or vey near the metro area on a very cold SW flow. And honestly this is only 7 days out so while fantasy land still, it’s not impossible to think... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 23, 2020 Author Share Posted November 23, 2020 1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said: So if the 00z Euro has its way then the Nov 30th Dec 1st time frame would deliver a impactful LES event in or vey near the metro area on a very cold SW flow. And honestly this is only 7 days out so while fantasy land still, it’s not impossible to think... Above average temps start again on Wednesday this week lasting until end of the month. Nov 30th-Dec 2/3rd there is a chance of something, not much cold air but enough After that we warm up for another week Mid. December-Mid January should be the goods of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 23, 2020 Author Share Posted November 23, 2020 2 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said: I just looked this up to make certain it was correct...Youngstown NY to Toronto across Lake Ontario is 33 miles. That’s all the furthest point of the Niagara frontier missed out on a half foot plus snows and roughly 60 miles from the metro. Perspective. I think YYZ (Toronto) is already at 10" on the year. That's close to 25% of their yearly snowfall and its 11/23. It's easier to get to normal when you average 40-45" a season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaistDeepSnow Posted November 23, 2020 Share Posted November 23, 2020 12 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said: 35 and rain is just the shittiest weather. I beg to differ. 25 and rain is worse. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 23, 2020 Author Share Posted November 23, 2020 26 minutes ago, WaistDeepSnow said: I beg to differ. 25 and rain is worse. I love the username. Also, welcome to the forums. Another poster from WNY! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 23, 2020 Author Share Posted November 23, 2020 We get a really strong +PNA in December, but no real cold air to tap into Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 23, 2020 Share Posted November 23, 2020 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: I think YYZ (Toronto) is already at 10" on the year. That's close to 25% of their yearly snowfall and its 11/23. It's easier to get to normal when you average 40-45" a season. As of this morning were at 8.3" for the season. So about 18% of our yearly snowfall. Wish we got more but an east-west wind orientation off Lake Ontario is rare. You guys in Upstate NY get all the fun from Lake Ontario. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 23, 2020 Share Posted November 23, 2020 8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: We get a really strong +PNA in December, but no real cold air to tap into It may not turn arctic however with that look BN temps should yield snow chances. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 23, 2020 Share Posted November 23, 2020 Just now, Snowstorms said: As of this morning were at 8.3" for the season. So about 18% of our yearly snowfall. Wish we got more but an east-west wind orientation off Lake Ontario is rare. You guys in Upstate NY get all the fun from Lake Ontario. Congrats on your snowfall yesterday! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 23, 2020 Author Share Posted November 23, 2020 15 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: It may not turn arctic however with that look BN temps should yield snow chances. My biggest worry is the PV strengthening quickly and not allowing any cold air to come down this winter. So SSW events in forecast is not a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 23, 2020 Share Posted November 23, 2020 Near miss on the GFS D7, something to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 23, 2020 Share Posted November 23, 2020 Round and round we go lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 23, 2020 Author Share Posted November 23, 2020 Just now, wolfie09 said: Round and round we go lol The only source of cold air is that low pressure system generating its own. That's never going to happen lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 23, 2020 Share Posted November 23, 2020 Canadian D7 cuts the system with a transfer, lake effect on the backside.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted November 23, 2020 Share Posted November 23, 2020 5 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said: I just looked this up to make certain it was correct...Youngstown NY to Toronto across Lake Ontario is 33 miles. That’s all the furthest point of the Niagara frontier missed out on a half foot plus snows and roughly 60 miles from the metro. Perspective. I got lucky up here on the escarpment in Hamilton that I got about 3". Downtown Toronto along the lakeshore only received 1cm or about 0.5" while only 5 miles up Yonge street away from the lake received 4-8". I think Lake Erie does the same thing to Downtown Buffalo occasionally, especially early season marginal LES events. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 23, 2020 Share Posted November 23, 2020 26 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: The only source of cold air is that low pressure system generating its own. That's never going to happen lol GFS is doing GFS things. Euro is cleaner and has plenty of cold air. In fact if we’re starting to keep score Euro sniffed out the NW track of the last system 3 full days before GFS did...in Euro we trust!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 23, 2020 Author Share Posted November 23, 2020 40 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: GFS is doing GFS things. Euro is cleaner and has plenty of cold air. In fact if we’re starting to keep score Euro sniffed out the NW track of the last system 3 full days before GFS did...in Euro we trust!!! Yeah Nov 30th-Dec 2nd is definitely best time for next snow across Upstate, then we get warm for a bit. We need EPO help. EPO is only accessible for paid websites now. If i had to wager it would be +4-5 Standard Dev. Will start a new thread this weekend for Dec. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 23, 2020 Share Posted November 23, 2020 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah Nov 30th-Dec 2nd is definitely best time for next snow across Upstate, then we get warm for a bit. We need EPO help. EPO is only accessible for paid websites now. If i had to wager it would be +4-5 Standard Dev. Was just over in the NE forum reading 40/70 Benchmark and he’s really bullish on the latest trends showing after the 10th we (northeast) gets the cold air and snow...shows why with slot more explanations than I just gave but he’s going above climo for a white xmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 23, 2020 Share Posted November 23, 2020 Tomorrow night is looking a bit more interesting for some snow across much of the region before we warm up for Wednesday. Starting to get some graupel showers here with the light lake effect beginning to kick in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 23, 2020 Share Posted November 23, 2020 Wolfie beat me as usual. But we can watch this. Split the Canadian and GFS for something interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 23, 2020 Share Posted November 23, 2020 ^^^ I have been keeping an eye on it lol Good if you want snow in the air, bad if you want it to actually stick lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 23, 2020 Share Posted November 23, 2020 Is the GFS PARA not active? I thought that was the new one? Only seems to be running once or twice a day? Did they give up on it already? Remember all the epic snowfalls it showed last year when only one or two ever came to fruition? I recall that one run where it had BUF and just BUF getting 3 feet inside of 84 hours. I think it was all rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 23, 2020 Share Posted November 23, 2020 Well that was one boring euro run lol Even most of the lake effect was rain/mix verbatim.. (Tomorrow) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 23, 2020 Share Posted November 23, 2020 13 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Well that was one boring euro run lol Even most of the lake effect was rain/mix verbatim.. (Tomorrow) In that specific run (snoozapalooza) we’d be pretty cold but dry as Canadian high pressure would be shoving the storm track well East of here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 23, 2020 Author Share Posted November 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: In that specific run (snoozapalooza) we’d be pretty cold but dry as Canadian high pressure would be shoving the storm track well East of here. The absolute worst pattern. Cool the lake and no snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 23, 2020 Author Share Posted November 23, 2020 SE Ridge flipped to PAC Ridge with no cold air in sight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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