CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 Perhaps some FZRN as we approach the mid- 20's so something to watch forSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 It will be very windy today, but the strongest winds will follow a cold front which will cross between 3 to 8 p.m. today. Wind gusts of 50 to 65 mph behind the front. This will also cause water levels to rise on Lake Erie resulting in flooding along the shoreline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 I guess the NWS is not buying some of these SR models lol They have like an inch or two here, majority of guidance shows over 6" verbatim.. Even a couple that get this area near a foot or more.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 3k has been very consistent which I'm not accustomed to lol Could be a few inches even for the"Southerners" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 If the front were timed just a bit better I think a more widespread wind event would have been at hand. Here downstate frontal arrival will still be timed far after sunset and without better mixing. Guessing better gust potential here should be with the line itself. Still like the idea of gusts 25-35 here downstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 44 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said: If the front were timed just a bit better I think a more widespread wind event would have been at hand. Here downstate frontal arrival will still be timed far after sunset and without better mixing. Guessing better gust potential here should be with the line itself. Still like the idea of gusts 25-35 here downstate. I am hoping for a coating of snow Tuesday which is clearly in the realm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 These warm sector winds are pretty damn impressive. I hope that’s a sign of things to come! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: 3k has been very consistent which I'm not accustomed to lol Could be a few inches even for the"Southerners" That looks like a possible WNW event. Sure would be nice if it actually happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 15, 2020 Author Share Posted November 15, 2020 18 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: These warm sector winds are pretty damn impressive. I hope that’s a sign of things to come! I'm taking my Kayak out into the lake this afternoon, want to see how the conditions are. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 Yeah, agreed Delta, much stronger than I thought it would be this early.. Gusting 30-40mph at KART.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 Line if severe storms going near Cleveland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 2 hours ago, wolfie09 said: 3k has been very consistent which I'm not accustomed to lol Could be a few inches even for the"Southerners" I’ll eat my hat if SYR or Roc gets over a dusting. It’s an elevation thang. IDK. Haven’t been following because it’s just a Tug situ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 15, 2020 Author Share Posted November 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: I’ll eat my hat if SYR or Roc gets over a dusting. It’s an elevation thang. IDK. Haven’t been following because it’s just a Tug situ Agreed. I also see no arctic air the entire GEFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 15, 2020 Author Share Posted November 15, 2020 Very early Tuesday morning looks interesting for Metro/Southtowns. That time period would be the best shot at any accumulating snowfall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 Winds over 70 in cleveland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 Just now, tim123 said: Winds over 70 in cleveland Just came to post! They are playing football there today too! Game is delayed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 Report from a lake freighter of winds in excess of 80mph with the cold front. That initial blast is going to be crazy! * Special Marine Warning for... Nearshore and Open waters from Geneva-on-the-lake OH to Ripley NY... * Until 230 PM EST. * At 104 PM EST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 25 nm north of Fairport Harbor to 62 nm south of Western Vermilion, moving east at 50 knots. HAZARD...Wind gusts in excess of 70 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 Tornado warning in ne Ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 Severe watch now from Wayne County westward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 Given trends in recent NAM/RAP forecast soundings being too cool compared to observed temperatures in northeast OH, it is reasonable to assume a cool bias for western NY. KBUF VAD is showing 65 kt at 1 km AGL and 100 kt at 6 km AGL. The intense wind fields coupled with the broken band of storms moving rapidly northeast along the I-90 corridor suggest at least an isolated risk for severe gusts and wind damage across western NY. If a brief period (30-60 minutes) of cloud breaks can develop ahead of the convective line prior to moving into northwest PA, a potentially more widespread threat for severe gusts could develop across western NY. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Agreed. I also see no arctic air the entire GEFS run. And on the EPS the exact opposite is the case. Strange that both ensembles are so different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 260,000 power outages in Ohio right now. Hoping we can bring some of that magic up into WNY! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 Wow where you get that report from delta. I'd imagine that goes up with general high wing through the evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Buffalo NY 239 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northwestern Cattaraugus County in western New York... Erie County in western New York... Niagara County in western New York... Chautauqua County in western New York... * Until 330 PM EST.. * At 237 PM EST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 31 miles west of Niagara Falls to 10 miles west of Ripley, moving east at 60 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 Over 300000 now out in Ohio. Almost 200000 in michigan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 26mb drop over the past 24 hours in my backyard! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 Post frontal winds are looking good. Currently sustained at 39 and gusting to 58 in Cleveland. That validates the high wind warning for them and hopefully us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 Really quiet in here. Odd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 Front just came through doubt we gusted higher than 55-60, strong but nothing special. Hopefully the post frontal winds will make up for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 13 minutes ago, tim123 said: Really quiet in here. Odd I mean to be honest we shouldn’t have had much wind at all (so far) given the setup. It’s unusual to get strong winds in the warm sector. 30-60mins after the frontal passage will be out sweet spot. The frontal passage itself is losing steam as downstream rains and clouds used up any good energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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