CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 CPC says things overall stay warmWhen dont they??Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 13, 2020 Author Share Posted November 13, 2020 2 hours ago, mississaugasnow said: what's everyones thoughts on the Sunday storm? Looks like there could be some big winds and lakeshore flooding along Lake Erie HWO in effect for it. Thinking 50-60 mph winds. This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Strong gusty winds are possible Sunday and Sunday night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 13, 2020 Author Share Posted November 13, 2020 Just now, CNY-LES FREAK said: When dont they?? Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk This is true. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 13, 2020 Author Share Posted November 13, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 Rgem getting into range.. Looking good for the higher elevations early on.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 Something to watch for D10.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 7 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: This is shaping up to be a nice wind event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 13, 2020 Author Share Posted November 13, 2020 2 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Rgem getting into range.. Looking good for the higher elevations early on.. Yeah last few runs look like moisture quickly exits and marginal temps. Not liking setup for lower elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 26 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah last few runs look like moisture quickly exits and marginal temps. Not liking setup for lower elevations. On to December!!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 The latest RGEM has a foot+ for parts of the tug by Monday evening, still going strong.. Looks like it could be a doozy for some of those areas, I'll be on the northern periphery of the heaviest snows.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 13, 2020 Author Share Posted November 13, 2020 Please give me a negative NAO in December! Nearly every blockbuster Metro Buffalo event features a negative NAO or some type of blocking pattern. Weeklies get progressively better in December. Dateline ridge builds with a bit of a west based -NAO look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 18 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Please give me a negative NAO in December! Nearly every blockbuster Metro Buffalo event features a negative NAO or some type of blocking pattern. Weeklies get progressively better in December. Dateline ridge builds with a bit of a west based -NAO look. Saw that in the New England forum 40/70 benchmark showed the same regarding the weeklies. I think the Euro has been on to something and the GFS is still following the it’s going to stay warm bit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 13, 2020 Author Share Posted November 13, 2020 11 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Saw that in the New England forum 40/70 benchmark showed the same regarding the weeklies. I think the Euro has been on to something and the GFS is still following the it’s going to stay warm bit I'll take some more warmth the next few weeks if it means -NAO all of December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 13, 2020 Author Share Posted November 13, 2020 A really strong band showing up very early Monday morning across Metro, could be some graupel mixed in? A month later and thats a lake snow warning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 Some fantasy land goodies courtesy of the 12z euro.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 Maybe an actual storm to track, who knows, 10-11 days away.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 13 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Maybe an actual storm to track, who knows, 10-11 days away.. After that it gets super intriguing in the LR just after Thanksgiving with a cutoff low right above Lake Superior...that would be the money shot... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 Where will the front set up could be the question, if it stalls at all.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 14, 2020 Author Share Posted November 14, 2020 There goes the rest of my fence... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 50 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: There goes the rest of my fence... Dude I told you to go with wood With gyms closing I can attest that digging posts is one hell of a workout. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: There goes the rest of my fence... Was it the halloween storm last year that wrecked it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 14, 2020 Author Share Posted November 14, 2020 3 hours ago, DeltaT13 said: Was it the halloween storm last year that wrecked it? Yep. It wasn't installed correctly. Going to court in 3 weeks for damages. I'm getting the Nest installed in case something else happens. It's a good security blanket. I was planning to get fixed in summer, but wanted to wait for court date first. Hoping it last until next summer to get fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 14, 2020 Author Share Posted November 14, 2020 13 hours ago, Luke_Mages said: Dude I told you to go with wood With gyms closing I can attest that digging posts is one hell of a workout. It wouldn't look good with my house. Everyone in my neighborhood as vinyl. Very low maintenance and wood you have to stain every few years. After doing that this year with my large deck, NO THANKS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 First call by Tues AM..A little south for my liking but we are just getting into Hi rez range.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 This is a pretty solid first wind event for us this season. Latest gfs went really deep with the pressure, 973mb!! However the over amplified gfs has bit me more than a few times in the last year so I’m not getting too excited. Still a nice storm track with a deepening system (for the most part), also the frontal passage looks to take advantage of some diurnal mixing which should up the ante a bit. I’m guessing we get some sporadic power outages with this one. Finally something to track 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 Both the 6z rgem and 3k Nam look decent and farther north than the NWS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 Here downstate there doesn't look to be nearly enough mixing to produce gusts close to advisory range but 25-35 looks most reasonable 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 14, 2020 Author Share Posted November 14, 2020 23 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: This is a pretty solid first wind event for us this season. Latest gfs went really deep with the pressure, 973mb!! However the over amplified gfs has bit me more than a few times in the last year so I’m not getting too excited. Still a nice storm track with a deepening system (for the most part), also the frontal passage looks to take advantage of some diurnal mixing which should up the ante a bit. I’m guessing we get some sporadic power outages with this one. Finally something to track I'm going to be outside physically holding my fence today tomorrow afternoon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said: This is a pretty solid first wind event for us this season. Latest gfs went really deep with the pressure, 973mb!! However the over amplified gfs has bit me more than a few times in the last year so I’m not getting too excited. Still a nice storm track with a deepening system (for the most part), also the frontal passage looks to take advantage of some diurnal mixing which should up the ante a bit. I’m guessing we get some sporadic power outages with this one. Finally something to track Hmmm, after a closer look it seems like the frontal passage comes too late in the afternoon for any good diurnal mixing. That’s a shame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 14, 2020 Author Share Posted November 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Hmmm, after a closer look it seems like the frontal passage comes too late in the afternoon for any good diurnal mixing. That’s a shame. Good thing Bills game is away this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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