BuffaloWeather Posted November 5, 2020 Author Share Posted November 5, 2020 SE ridge on entire runs of EPS/GEFS. This warm up has lasting power. Let's get it out of the way in November and turn the tides in December. Keep those lakes toasty. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 20 hours ago, DeltaT13 said: Nice visible loop showing the elevation dependent snowcover in the Adirondacks. Also a neat little strip of snow in NW pa that quickly melts. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16§or=ne&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24 That actually gives a good depiction of the tug. There’s a little jog to the tug’s elevation that extends SE. you can see it here. The tug is almost a triangle. West Turin is in that little corner and I drive through their every winter. They get tons of snow. They have sooo much more than Lowville , which is only 15 miles to their NE and tons more than Lee, to its S. Always 3-4 foot banks. Tractors buried halfway up the wheels. Amazing. There’s a bar there, called the Milk Dairy or some sh.t. I’ve always wondered who goes there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: SE ridge on entire runs of EPS/GEFS. This warm up has lasting power. Let's get it out of the way in November and turn the tides in December. Keep those lakes toasty. This is great timing if you’re like a normal person and hope for a white Christmas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 5, 2020 Author Share Posted November 5, 2020 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: This is great timing if you’re like a normal person and hope for a white Christmas It's also better to be 60s and sunny right now vs 40s and rain. We will keep the lakes super warm until peak season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: That actually gives a good depiction of the tug. There’s a little jog to the tug’s elevation that extends SE. you can see it here. The tug is almost a triangle. West Turin is in that little corner and I drive through their every winter. They get tons of snow. They have sooo much more than Lowville , which is only 15 miles to their NE and tons more than Lee, to its S. Always 3-4 foot banks. Tractors buried halfway up the wheels. Amazing. There’s a bar there, called the Milk Dairy or some sh.t. I’ve always wondered who goes there. Milkplant. Snowmobilers and some of the 50 people in West Leyden keep that place alive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 6, 2020 Author Share Posted November 6, 2020 At least another 2 weeks of above normal temps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 6, 2020 Author Share Posted November 6, 2020 The west seems like their winters have been colder then average for 3-4 years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 6, 2020 Author Share Posted November 6, 2020 Warmest November week ever! Streak of 60s could be longest of all time BUFFALO, NY: — Buffalo is on the way to break a record that has stood in the books for 80 years! It's the kind of weather event that occurs literally once in a lifetime. The streak of 60s that started this week could end up making this the longest run of 65F+ days ever felt in November and essentially the warmest stretch of weather in Buffalo history for the month. Officially Buffalo is off to a great start recording 69F and 67F on Wednesday & Thursday of this week and has a great shot at hitting the mark again on Friday bringing the total to 3 in a row... but how many does Buffalo need to break the record? That number stands at 7. https://www.wkbw.com/weather/warmest-november-week-ever 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 6, 2020 Share Posted November 6, 2020 21 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Warmest November week ever! Streak of 60s could be longest of all time BUFFALO, NY: — Buffalo is on the way to break a record that has stood in the books for 80 years! It's the kind of weather event that occurs literally once in a lifetime. The streak of 60s that started this week could end up making this the longest run of 65F+ days ever felt in November and essentially the warmest stretch of weather in Buffalo history for the month. Officially Buffalo is off to a great start recording 69F and 67F on Wednesday & Thursday of this week and has a great shot at hitting the mark again on Friday bringing the total to 3 in a row... but how many does Buffalo need to break the record? That number stands at 7. https://www.wkbw.com/weather/warmest-november-week-ever We have this in the bag!!! 2020 won’t let us down now!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 6, 2020 Share Posted November 6, 2020 Does the 12z finally offer a bit of hope by the second half of the month??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 6, 2020 Author Share Posted November 6, 2020 7 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Does the 12z finally offer a bit of hope by the second half of the month??? I don't trust the GFS beyond a week. It always shows colder then normal beyond day 10. The EPS gives me hope though. The GEFS shows something similar, but than the SE ridge reemerges to dominant the pattern. The cold air never really makes it to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 6, 2020 Share Posted November 6, 2020 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: I don't trust the GFS beyond a week. It always shows colder then normal beyond day 10. The EPS gives me hope though. Agreed BW that’s why I had reservation but at least there are signs...and if what the EPS shows comes to fruition we would see a decent chance at a synoptic snowfall and eventually our first real LES chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 6, 2020 Author Share Posted November 6, 2020 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: Agreed BW that’s why I had reservation but at least there are signs...and if what the EPS shows comes to fruition we would see a decent chance at a synoptic snowfall and eventually our first real LES chances I edited my post to show what the next few screens show on GEFS. Still not liking the look. SE Ridge never moves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted November 6, 2020 Share Posted November 6, 2020 4 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Warmest November week ever! Streak of 60s could be longest of all time BUFFALO, NY: — Buffalo is on the way to break a record that has stood in the books for 80 years! It's the kind of weather event that occurs literally once in a lifetime. The streak of 60s that started this week could end up making this the longest run of 65F+ days ever felt in November and essentially the warmest stretch of weather in Buffalo history for the month. Officially Buffalo is off to a great start recording 69F and 67F on Wednesday & Thursday of this week and has a great shot at hitting the mark again on Friday bringing the total to 3 in a row... but how many does Buffalo need to break the record? That number stands at 7. https://www.wkbw.com/weather/warmest-november-week-ever Is the streak 60’s or 65+? BUF is at 61 right now, not sure if we hit 65 earlier. Strong SW breeze is keeping it a bit cooler. Probably same deal tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 6, 2020 Author Share Posted November 6, 2020 11 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Is the streak 60’s or 65+? BUF is at 61 right now, not sure if we hit 65 earlier. Strong SW breeze is keeping it a bit cooler. Probably same deal tomorrow. I believe the record is 60+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted November 6, 2020 Share Posted November 6, 2020 14 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I believe the record is 60+ Gotcha, lock it in. Anyone else have much foliage left? Still over 50% leaf-on in my neighborhood with some nice colors holding strong. We’ve only had one freeze so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 6, 2020 Share Posted November 6, 2020 24 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Gotcha, lock it in. Anyone else have much foliage left? Still over 50% leaf-on in my neighborhood with some nice colors holding strong. We’ve only had one freeze so far. Williamsville is just about 80% leaf free at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted November 6, 2020 Share Posted November 6, 2020 43 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Gotcha, lock it in. Anyone else have much foliage left? Still over 50% leaf-on in my neighborhood with some nice colors holding strong. We’ve only had one freeze so far. That's unbelievable. We are 100% leaf free here, and have been for several weeks. I finished leaf clean up in October. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 6, 2020 Share Posted November 6, 2020 56 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Gotcha, lock it in. Anyone else have much foliage left? Still over 50% leaf-on in my neighborhood with some nice colors holding strong. We’ve only had one freeze so far. Probably about 50 percent of the leafs are gone here in Rochester; which is right on schedule. A lot of yellow and some reds still hanging around which is nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted November 6, 2020 Share Posted November 6, 2020 Because of four hours of subfreezing temps last week, I had to take down about a dozen thriving indeterminate tomato plants. I picked more than 85 green tomatoes right before the freeze, I tried to leave part of the vine attached to give them a better chance of ripening, but probably 90% of them were too early. If I could have protected them for four hours, this current spell of weather is warm enough and forecast to continue long enough that they could have vine-ripened! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 7, 2020 Author Share Posted November 7, 2020 18 hours ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Is the streak 60’s or 65+? BUF is at 61 right now, not sure if we hit 65 earlier. Strong SW breeze is keeping it a bit cooler. Probably same deal tomorrow. Hit 64 yesterday at KBUF at 1:31 PM, already 63 today at 10 am. KBUF is +5.3 for the month. I think we finish +8-10. 2020 might end up being top 2 for warmest years ever with 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 7, 2020 Author Share Posted November 7, 2020 Planned a last second trip to the Adirondacks to hit up 2 more peaks this week. Going to be 70 and sunny in lake placid on Tuesday with 5 mph winds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted November 7, 2020 Share Posted November 7, 2020 15 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Hit 64 yesterday at KBUF at 1:31 PM, already 63 today at 10 am. KBUF is +5.3 for the month. I think we finish +8-10. 2020 might end up being top 2 for warmest years ever with 2012. Agree. Looks like if we flip cooler later this month it’s still only close to normal. Damage will have been done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted November 7, 2020 Share Posted November 7, 2020 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Planned a last second trip to the Adirondacks to hit up 2 more peaks this week. Going to be 70 and sunny in lake placid on Tuesday with 5 mph winds. Jealous...Jump in Mirror Lake, just to say you did in November 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 7, 2020 Author Share Posted November 7, 2020 I like this look, Small LES event potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 7, 2020 Share Posted November 7, 2020 3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: I like this look, Small LES event potential? I’m not feeling it. GEFS is different. As long as the two camps aren’t in lock step I gotta think more of the same. I’m concerned about the WAR. It seems that it has become a fixture during the winter months the past decade and is becoming increasingly difficult to move out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 8, 2020 Author Share Posted November 8, 2020 6 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said: I’m not feeling it. GEFS is different. As long as the two camps aren’t in lock step I gotta think more of the same. I’m concerned about the WAR. It seems that it has become a fixture during the winter months the past decade and is becoming increasingly difficult to move out. You're right the GEFS keep the ridge going the entire run. We need an atmospheric shakeup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 13 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: You're right the GEFS keep the ridge going the entire run. We need an atmospheric shakeup. They look very similar today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 Almost 70 at 10am. Should be outside the stadium tailgating right now... Setting the TV up outside in the driveway, guess it will have to do... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 Any hope for wintry weather in the Catskills before November ends or has that ship sailed? GFS has nada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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