LakeEffectKing Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 Eta!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 You beat me to it, bastard lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 Para doesn't merge the two.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 Day 3 wpc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 Kbuf not overly impressed..Still 3"-4" here which would be welcomed lol For once, I agree with their forecast!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 935mb, SLP, RLMAO Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 Kbuf Accumulating lake effect snow likely during this period... An anomalous 500mb trough will sharpen as it tracks from the eastern Great Lakes Sunday night to northern New England Monday night. Cold air advection behind a departing cold front will result in 850mb temperatures of -6 C to -8 C. The combination of large scale ascent and upstream moisture from the passing trough and lake induced instability and cold surface temperatures will provide support for lake effect snow, accumulating at times through Monday night east of both lakes. A westerly flow will position lake effect bands east of both Lakes Sunday evening with surface temperatures falling into the 20s. Initially, moderate snow showers will be occuring east of Lake Erie with the best concentration across Chautauqua, Cattaraugus and southern Erie counties as a secondary cold front approaches from the west. Forecast soundings show saturation to the equilibrium level of 15k feet and unidirectional westerly flow east of Lake Erie. Snow showers will taper off further inland and into the Niagara Frontier. Lake effect snow showers east of Lake Ontario will be confined to the Tug Hill region Sunday evening before intensifying as the secondary cold front approaches this area into Monday morning. The cold front will move through the entire region Monday morning and northwest flow will shift lake snows south and across a majority of the region. There will likely be a upstream connection to Lake Huron and Georgian Bay reaching parts of the Niagara Frontier and southeast Chautauqua county. At this time, surface temperatures will climb into the upper 30s to low 40s making it more difficult to accumulate especially across the Lake Plains but snow showers will be the most likely p-type through Monday afternoon. Strong winds will also move into the region resulting in areas of blowing snow. Accumulations of 2-4 inches are possible across the higher terrain east of Lake Erie and on the Tug Hill plateau through Monday afternoon. Elsewhere, a dusting to 2 inches are possible with the higher amounts across the higher terrain. The trough moves east Monday night into Tuesday. Dry air and subsidence will move into western NY and snow showers will become less intense however linger during this time. Accumulations will be lower with an additional 1-3 inches east of Lake Erie during this time. The opposite can be said about east of Lake Ontario where upper level vorticity advection and a surface low move toward the North Country Monday night. This will reinvigorate lake effect snow showers east of Lake Ontario with upstream moisture and lift increasing while surface temperatures fall below freezing. Additional accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts on the Tug Hill are possible into Tuesday morning. Windy conditions expected Monday night with near 30-40 mph close to the Lakes. Snow showers will taper off Tuesday with most of them confined to the southern shower of Lake Ontario as high pressure moves into the region. Temperatures will rise into the low to mid 40s and upper 30s across the higher terrain. Accumulating snow Sunday night through Monday night may require Winter Weather Headlines for areas east of Lake Erie and east of Lake Ontario. Accumulating snow may impact the Monday morning commute across the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 Both events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 31, 2020 Author Share Posted October 31, 2020 Anyone know where to find EPO index? The teleconnection page only shows 4 indexes. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 So what are the chances we see some wet snow squalls right at the end of the game tomorrow? It’s frustratingly close but seems to probably be a couple hours to late with the changeover. Dang it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 High resolution Canadian still going big.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 Looks like practically every high rez model has at least a foot somewhere over the tug, between both events.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 Maybe Sullivan County in the Catskills gets an inch from these streamers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 WWA issued for this evening, WSW for tomorrow afternoon through Tuesday morning.. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY... ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... * WHAT...For the Winter Weather Advisory, snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. For the Winter Storm Watch, heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 7 to 10 inches possible with localized heavier amounts. * WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. * WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday. For the Winter Storm Watch, from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday and Tuesday commutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 Now to the details. Quiet over NY now, but that changes late this morning/midday as rain spreads across region due to strong height falls and diffluence aloft from jet driving across southern Plains to Ohio Valley. As quick as widespread rain moves in, it moves out by late day, starting to change to snow over higher terrain of western NY as cold air pours in behind the cold front marching across the region. South winds ahead of front are gusting over 40 mph this morning along Lake Erie south of Buffalo and expect these strong winds to shift west this afternoon and become strong and gusty farther north into the western Niagara Frontier, including the Buffalo Metro. Gusts to 45 mph look likely, especially mid afternoon post cold front and when pressure rises move across enhancing the winds. A brief period of stronger gusts could also occur farther east, but too brief to highlight in a wind advisory as areas along Lake Erie are now under. Late this afternoon and early this evening, setup quickly becomes favorable for lake enhanced snow downwind of both lakes. Lake equilibrium levels start climbing to around 15kft early evening off Lake Erie and not much later off Lake Ontario as the whole leading trough stays progressive. Winds in the building lake effect convective layer are strong with 30-45 kts, so that will limit residence time over the lakes and also will fracture dendrites. Net result of both factors will be to limit SLRs and snow accums. Even so, as the period of strongest lake enhancement occurs late evening through the early overnight, snowfall rates could reach 1 inch per hour for a few hours. Total snow accums by late tonight in the areas favored by nw flow east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario could reach 6 inches. Higher terrain of Chautauqua and western Cattaraugus county and on the Tug Hill would be where heaviest snow is expected. That said, much of higher terrain over western NY will see at least a few inches of snow along with some blowing snow due to the strong winds. Have issued winter weather advisories over western Southern Tier into the higher terrain of Southern Erie and Wyoming county and also for the eastern Lake Ontario region. Outside of these areas, light snow with the gusty winds will result in areas of lower visibility which could linger into the Monday morning commute. Will mention this hazard in the HWO. Lull in lake effect will be brief as another round of heavy lake effect snow is possible late Monday afternoon into Monday night especially for westerly to northwest flow targeting the Tug Hill region. See details on this in the short term discussion. Brief improvement expected on Monday into early afternoon. Drying and subsidence behind the departing upper trough will leave just some light snow showers and flurries. Winds will remain gusty so patchy blowing snow still could occur especially in areas that see the most snow overnight tonight. Final issue late tonight into Monday morning will be chilly conditions with temps in the upper 20s to around 30 and wind chill readings in the upper teens to lower 20s. Lull in lake effect will be brief off Lake Ontario as another round of heavy lake effect snow is possible late Monday afternoon into Monday night especially for westerly to northwest flow targeting the Tug Hill region. See details on this part of the event in the short term discussion. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... ...Significant accumulating lake snows possible east of Lake Ontario during this period... While the broader mid-level trough slowly progresses east Monday across the Lower Lakes, a secondary potent shortwave will drops SE channeling down the back side of the broader trough. While lake snows weaken off Lake Erie, the exact opposite can be said east of Lake Ontario where westerly flow across the lake will make use of the longer fetch to produce what could be our first significant snowfall, especially across the Tug Hill. The only hindrance right now appears to be residence time of the band over any given location which is expected to gradually settle southward over the course of the night. However, confident enough that there will be time for snowfall accumulation greater than +7 inches east of Lake Ontario in the most intense portion of the band. A Winter storm watch has been issued for this potential from Monday evening through Tuesday morning. Some minor accumulations can still anticipated east of Lake Erie overnight but with drier air moving in and equilibrium levels falling this will limit the lake response off Lake Erie. The aforementioned mid-level trough then moves well east of the region by early Tuesday morning. The loss of background moisture with the departing trough and lowering equilibrium levels will then aid in gradually weakening and diminishing lake snows over the course of the day. After Tuesday, dry weather returns as sfc ridging builds off the Mid- Atlantic and Northeast coast. This will not only provide dry weather through the end of this period but also initiate a big warm up. Temperatures anticipated to climb well above normal with highs climbing into the 60s for the later half of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 Maybe Sullivan County in the Catskills gets an inch from these streamers?Not likely, but you've already saw snow now its our turnSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 Kbgm expected snowfall (first event only) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 I love how the Tug gets lake effect snow on a NW wind. It should be impossible as they have no lake to their NW, but they get it. A terrible set up for the Thruway corridor. Don’t expect much in the big 3. But seeing flakes will be fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 Well the NWS failed to mention the West-WSW flow just behind the CF, before the switch over to a NW Flow.. It's more of a wrap around regime, tug/dacks have closer proximity and elevation.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 1, 2020 Author Share Posted November 1, 2020 Pretty good first event of the season, enjoy the flakes because winter is going away for at least 2 weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 4-7" for our area with Advisory seems way way overdone then another 3-6" with the watch ober the TUG which seems much more realistic but well see > supposeSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: I love how the Tug gets lake effect snow on a NW wind. It should be impossible as they have no lake to their NW, but they get it. A terrible set up for the Thruway corridor. Don’t expect much in the big 3. But seeing flakes will be fun! That's the "NW flow event" I waited for the entire winter I was there! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 59 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Pretty good first event of the season, enjoy the flakes because winter is going away for at least 2 weeks. I see KBUF put Niagara Frontier at an inch. This is a good idea as upwind at Lake Michigan, Superior and Huron are full tilt right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 Friday was a no-show snow and tomorrow is looking less exciting for this area as we get closer. Hopefully it's not 5 months of this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 18 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Friday was a no-show snow and tomorrow is looking less exciting for this area as we get closer. Hopefully it's not 5 months of this! I’m thinking a light accumulation, up to maybe an inch by Monday a.m. for us. After that we start warming up. I have a tee time for next Sunday so a nice global warming November will be “warmly” greeted here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 11 minutes ago, Syrmax said: I’m thinking a light accumulation, up to maybe an inch by Monday a.m. for us. After that we start warming up. I have a tee time for next Sunday so a nice global warming November will be “warmly” greeted here. You would...haha. I am thinking the same. An inch that will melt during the day tomorrow...then maybe another inch tomorrow night. Syracuse has broken so many warm records lately. I wish I lived here when winters used to be real winters! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 18 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: You would...haha. I am thinking the same. An inch that will melt during the day tomorrow...then maybe another inch tomorrow night. Syracuse has broken so many warm records lately. I wish I lived here when winters used to be real winters! Since I’ve been here (15 winters), we have been average or above avg for snowfall for probably 11 or 12. So not bad...although the propensity for consistent snowcover has been lacking. I haven’t seen any real analysis of this compared to longer term averages, so I don’t know if it’s a real trend or imagined. However, more frustratingly for me, is that we def have had a number of recent Dec/Jan periods where it magically gets mild right before Xmas and into at least the first half of January. Which is really a downer from an overall seasonal “quality of experience” standpoint. Last winter a perfect example...starts early, gets mild in prime time, yet a cold wet spring with snow into mid May. On top of the Covid misery. Blech! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 I remember in the 90’s I used to get so jealous of Syracuse. I’d wake up here in Rochester with bright sun and see a report of heavy snow in Syracuse with 14” fresh. They seem to have stopped having a lot of those Syracuse blaster bands that come off the SE of Ontario and literally just bisect the city. It could be that they just had some anomalous years then. Hey! Syracuse still has the big swinging dic. in the thruway cities. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 1, 2020 Author Share Posted November 1, 2020 Syracuse average snowfall has been going up the last 30 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 1, 2020 Author Share Posted November 1, 2020 46 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: You would...haha. I am thinking the same. An inch that will melt during the day tomorrow...then maybe another inch tomorrow night. Syracuse has broken so many warm records lately. I wish I lived here when winters used to be real winters! We're 51 days away from winters start date. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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