TugHillMatt Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 4 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: You’re a lock Thanks! I hope so. I'm trying really hard not to look at any models because I don't want to get caught up in the highs and lows of changes every 6 hours. haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Yay! Thanks for sharing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 Northern DELCO. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 11 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Nice! Looked about the same here in Otsego when I left for work before 0700 although it was still pretty dark out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 I am happy as it snows moderately 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
manhattanandcatskills Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 Also in DE county..... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 Just now, manhattanandcatskills said: Also in DE county..... Where at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 RGEM showing an interesting event in the mid range. LES on the back of robust screamer that clips just to our north. RGEM is insisting the winds will be N-NE? Which seems all wrong- these events usually have a SW wind? Anyway, snow signature along south shore of Erie all the way to Cleveland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 Look above my friend..Rgem jumps to the coast switching the wind field.. Almost a little wrap around regime, doesn't last long though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 Cold front blasts across region late Sunday afternoon into early Sunday evening. Cold air advection will quickly switch rain to snow by Sunday evening first over the hills of western NY into the higher terrain of the Southern Tier, but eventually all areas (even lower elevations) will see snow by late evening into the early overnight. Widespread precip will end in the evening, but the deep cold trough with deeper moisture and sharply increasing over-water instability leading to lake equilibrium levels/inversion heights rising toward 15kft will result in *at least* moderate intensity lake effect snowfall for areas favored by northwest winds Sunday evening through late Sunday night. Will be a multiband regime, but there continues to be hints of upstream connections off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay which will boost intensity than what would typically occur in multiband setup. Several inches of snow is looking more likely Sunday night over western Southern Tier and also vcnty of the Tug Hill east of Lake Ontario. Another plus is, at least right now, forecast soundings show uniform winds for the depth of the lake convective layer, thus minimal shear to disrupt the lake effect. Strong winds in that layer could displace the snow showers farther inland as well and may even lead to a bit of blowing snow as temps fall into the 20s overnight. Will continue to mention this potential snow in the HWO. Adding to the wintry feel will be wind chill values to start the day Monday in the teens and lower 20s. Brrr. Snow showers will be around on Monday, but as upper level trough moves east of the region, limited deeper moisture and some subsidence/drying will likely diminish intensity compared to Sunday night. Does appear lake effect will flare up again late Monday into Monday night, this time mostly over Tug Hill closer to departing trough and colder air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 First lake effect map of the season.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 7 hours ago, sferic said: It brings out the kid in us with memories of youth and how magical snow is. What I don't like is after the snow moves out and the sun comes out... The anticipation and storm itself is the rush, when it's over it;s a letdown of sorts unless there is another event right in back of it That's what makes lake effect country (esp CNY) interesting for snow freaks. Further east, after a storm it usually clears out and gets sunny. Around here it often sets up round 2...the LES...which is sometimes better than the synoptic snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polarbear Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 1 hour ago, Flying MXZ said: Northern DELCO. Off topic.... what cameras are these?? Recently had my dog stolen (we did get him back btw) I bought a pack of Arlo pro 3 on prime day after some family recommendations but jury is still out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 25 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: First lake effect map of the season.. Time to dust off the KBUF snow map adjustment algo for areas not on the Tug in CNY (divide by 2 or 3)? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 25 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: First lake effect map of the season.. So if you look at the GFS for that timeframe The LES bands are far more west than being depicted by the NWS map. In a NW flow the tug is normally missed and Rochester to Syracuse is in the crosshairs. I’m confused by this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 Postcard morning. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 30, 2020 Author Share Posted October 30, 2020 Really like the look for those south of tug and north of Syracuse for next event. Has it all. 3-6" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 54 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Rgem for Sunday.. If the timing holds it's going to be really nasty out for the Bills game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 First flakes here in rochester. Just flurries but winter has started. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 22 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: So if you look at the GFS for that timeframe The LES bands are far more west than being depicted by the NWS map. In a NW flow the tug is normally missed and Rochester to Syracuse is in the crosshairs. I’m confused by this Well at first the flow looks more"westerly" before veering NW..But due to the proximity of the LP the tug sees some wrap around..These bands obviously tend to be stronger over the higher elevations, not to mention the change over will be much quicker..A lot depends on when the Low jumps the coast.. We'll have to wait and see what SR guidance shows.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 Sunday Night/ Monday Morning Catskill potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
manhattanandcatskills Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 5 hours ago, Ericjcrash said: Where at? A few miles NE of Delhi 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 Rgem for Sunday..RLMAO, all rain till the last few frames. I just wanna see some flakes as its still quite early here for any appreciable accumulations but I'll definitely take it, but I doubt we see anything before Thanksgiving. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 Sunday Night/ Monday Morning Catskill potential?Not goodSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 I dont think we're anywhere near cold enough for serious accumulations anyway unless Sun-mondays event happens primarily during the evening and throughout the night as temps dont get much lower than the lower 30's and thats at night as well so we'll see I suppose....Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 5 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Cold front blasts across region late Sunday afternoon into early Sunday evening. Cold air advection will quickly switch rain to snow by Sunday evening first over the hills of western NY into the higher terrain of the Southern Tier, but eventually all areas (even lower elevations) will see snow by late evening into the early overnight. Widespread precip will end in the evening, but the deep cold trough with deeper moisture and sharply increasing over-water instability leading to lake equilibrium levels/inversion heights rising toward 15kft will result in *at least* moderate intensity lake effect snowfall for areas favored by northwest winds Sunday evening through late Sunday night. Will be a multiband regime, but there continues to be hints of upstream connections off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay which will boost intensity than what would typically occur in multiband setup. Several inches of snow is looking more likely Sunday night over western Southern Tier and also vcnty of the Tug Hill east of Lake Ontario. Another plus is, at least right now, forecast soundings show uniform winds for the depth of the lake convective layer, thus minimal shear to disrupt the lake effect. Strong winds in that layer could displace the snow showers farther inland as well and may even lead to a bit of blowing snow as temps fall into the 20s overnight. Will continue to mention this potential snow in the HWO. Adding to the wintry feel will be wind chill values to start the day Monday in the teens and lower 20s. Brrr. Snow showers will be around on Monday, but as upper level trough moves east of the region, limited deeper moisture and some subsidence/drying will likely diminish intensity compared to Sunday night. Does appear lake effect will flare up again late Monday into Monday night, this time mostly over Tug Hill closer to departing trough and colder air. Yeah, I'll remain skeptical with this next set-up but it looks like the NWS is all go on our first decent event of the season, wow! I still don't know where these temps their talking about are coming from cause I dont see it on any of the models, H850's get to a mere -6C perhaps we flirt with -9C for a few hrs but then we quickly warm, idk I guess we wait and see.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 5 hours ago, Syrmax said: That's what makes lake effect country (esp CNY) interesting for snow freaks. Further east, after a storm it usually clears out and gets sunny. Around here it often sets up round 2...the LES...which is sometimes better than the synoptic snow. So true! Thanks for the reminder. While places outside of the lakes see sun and the roads slushing up, we can keep the fun going. 5 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said: So if you look at the GFS for that timeframe The LES bands are far more west than being depicted by the NWS map. In a NW flow the tug is normally missed and Rochester to Syracuse is in the crosshairs. I’m confused by this I was a bit confused too. 5 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Really like the look for those south of tug and north of Syracuse for next event. Has it all. 3-6" I hope so. But if it ends up a Westerly flow and then shifts northwest, we will be the dreaded transition zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 42 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: I dont think we're anywhere near cold enough for serious accumulations anyway unless Sun-mondays event happens primarily during the evening and throughout the night as temps dont get much lower than the lower 30's and thats at night as well so we'll see I suppose.... Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk I mean the meat of this event happens between 6pm and noon the next day. Pretty much perfect timing to maximize nocturnal cooling. Point sounding certainly look like all snow if you believe the GFS. I see no reason to think there wouldnt be measurable snow by Monday morning in many places. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 30 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Yeah, I'll remain skeptical with this next set-up but it looks like the NWS is all go on our first decent event of the season, wow! I still don't know where these temps their talking about are coming from cause I dont see it on any of the models, H850's get to a mere -6C perhaps we flirt with -9C for a few hrs but then we quickly warm, idk I guess we wait and see.... Here is Monday Morning in Rochester. Surface temps below freezing. 850's are about -12c Lower atmosphere is fairly saturated. Winds aren't conducive for ROC to get lake effect, but thats a snowy temp profile no matter how you slice it. Stay positive man. We are 8 hours into the winter season and you are already a bastion of negativity. Good Grief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 5 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: I mean the meat of this event happens between 6pm and noon the next day. Pretty much perfect timing to maximize nocturnal cooling. Point sounding certainly look like all snow if you believe the GFS. I see no reason to think there wouldnt be measurable snow by Monday morning in many places. Definitely a decent sounding fo sho so lets see what changes abound from now till then, lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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