wolfie09 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 LR NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 best map I could find from euro eps. Feel free to react 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Thats crazy. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Gfs vs NAM at 84.. Nam going neutral, in the process of phasing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 31 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said: best map I could find from euro eps. Feel free to react That's only like 4 days away...dang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Icon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Going to have a lot of "noise" over the next few days..We will know how much to expect when we are measuring (if at all) lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Everyone forgets about elevation out in the Plains, lol. Ppl think the plains are flat, which they are, but still much higher in elevation than anywhere around here. As you drive from Nebraska into CO, or Wyoming you don't realize ur at about 3500' in elevation and as you go further West it just gets higher and higher. It may be flat in Eastern CO but their at about 4000' in elevation otherwise they'd get very little snow in October and November. Amarillo TX is at 3650' thats why they can snow and it takes much longer for us to get out first flakes. Even Western Nebraska is close to 3000' and the tugs highest hill I think is 2800' but I may be wrong so yeah, they'll snow before US pretty much every yr.Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 And just because it shows out there, doesn't mean Jack for us, sorry.....Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Its gonna be a very cold rain for most of us on this forum from Thursday into Thursday night and then we may see some dynamics come into play depending upon how strong the SLP gets. Perhaps we'll see a changeover to plain snow early morning Friday beforeit quickly goes back to rain. Its a strung out mess before it gets even close to us then starts to get its act together once it redevelops off the coast and heads for the benchmark so I know this weenie isn't getting his hopes up.Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champy Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Its gonna be a very cold rain for most of us on this forum from Thursday into Thursday night and then we may see some dynamics come into play depending upon how strong the SLP gets. Perhaps we'll see a changeover to plain snow early morning Friday beforeit quickly goes back to rain. Its a strung out mess before it gets even close to us then starts to get its act together once it redevelops off the coast and heads for the benchmark so I know this weenie isn't getting his hopes up. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Damn, I came here just to see if you were posting 500:1 Kuchera maps yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 GFS is up to its tricks already this early in the season, lol. We're already 4 days out and both the EURO and UKMET have it so I'd stick with them 2 and wait till Wednesday to see what the thermals are gonna look like. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Damn, I came here just to see if you were posting 500:1 Kuchera maps yet. Thats Wolfe, I dont post them stupid maps cause they are consistently wrong, but fun to look at! I'm sure their around some where on here. In fact, one was posted on the last page, Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Still not there but an improvement on the gfs.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Nope won't be doing it this year lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 49 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Everyone forgets about elevation out in the Plains, lol. Ppl think the plains are flat, which they are, but still much higher in elevation than anywhere around here. As you drive from Nebraska into CO, or Wyoming you don't realize ur at about 3500' in elevation and as you go further West it just gets higher and higher. It may be flat in Eastern CO but their at about 4000' in elevation otherwise they'd get very little snow in October and November. Amarillo TX is at 3650' thats why they can snow and it takes much longer for us to get out first flakes. Even Western Nebraska is close to 3000' and the tugs highest hill I think is 2800' but I may be wrong so yeah, they'll snow before US pretty much every yr. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Western Nebraska into Wyoming/Colorado is over 5000 feet lol. I know it because I just drove to Wyoming and back last month. When you get to the Western part of Nebraska where 80 splits off to 76 to head to Denver, as you continue on 80 westward it feels like your just going up and up forever. Good point you made though, it may be flat (relatively) but it’s high up there! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 1 hour ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Everyone forgets about elevation out in the Plains, lol. Ppl think the plains are flat, which they are, but still much higher in elevation than anywhere around here. As you drive from Nebraska into CO, or Wyoming you don't realize ur at about 3500' in elevation and as you go further West it just gets higher and higher. It may be flat in Eastern CO but their at about 4000' in elevation otherwise they'd get very little snow in October and November. Amarillo TX is at 3650' thats why they can snow and it takes much longer for us to get out first flakes. Even Western Nebraska is close to 3000' and the tugs highest hill I think is 2800' but I may be wrong so yeah, they'll snow before US pretty much every yr. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Well with this logic, those locations should never be warm and Denver should never crack 70 even on the hottest day of the year. You need sudden elevation changes above the local mean elevation for significant cooling to be realized. Those locations get snow because they are closer the genesis point of strong lee side low pressure systems. Arctic fronts drop quickly and efficiently along the Rockies and down through the plains delivering unseasonably cold air. Couple that with strong dynamic cooling from the rapidly deepening systems and you have a location ripe for early season flakes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 3 hours ago, wolfie09 said: LR NAM If the LP were to be in that position we would snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 early, but thinking the gfs-p will be a big step down. Just looking what I am seeing so far. Could be wrong ofc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 45 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said: early, but thinking the gfs-p will be a big step down. Just looking what I am seeing so far. Could be wrong ofc. almost an hour later and still stuck at 36 hours strange. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 1 minute ago, SnowLover22 said: almost an hour later and still stuck at 36 hours strange. Typical para activities. Should be complete by 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 1 hour ago, SnowLover22 said: early, but thinking the gfs-p will be a big step down. Just looking what I am seeing so far. Could be wrong ofc. so not a "big step down" but definitely a trend in the wrong direction. Weaker lighter precipitation vs 18z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 Almost flushed. If the Europeans jump, it’s ova. 12z Canadian had a good handle on it. (Hehehe) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 14 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Almost flushed. If the Europeans jump, it’s ova. 12z Canadian had a good handle on it. (Hehehe) Hey at least this whetted our appetites for the inevitability of plenty more failed opportunities!!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 cmon guys you all knew it was coming! nam'd Totals with the event still well-underway. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 27, 2020 Author Share Posted October 27, 2020 6 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said: I’m surprised there isn’t a weather station up there I think there is one on whiteface, but they don't track total snowfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 27, 2020 Author Share Posted October 27, 2020 So we really using the NAM, ICON, PARA this year? We know the combo of Euro, GFS, Ukie is always the best way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: So we really using the NAM, ICON, PARA this year? my post was not meant to be taken seriously. I thought it was pretty clear I was being facetious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 Pretty good consensus between the Euro, GFS, and RGEM now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 I’m going with slushy coating from lower elevations BUF to ROC, 1-2” for the terrain above 1200 feet south of BUF and ROC. Someone in the Adirondacks will see 8” plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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