Thinksnow18 Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 4 hours ago, DeltaT13 said: Of course! I’m not sure what other aspect would be historic around here? Measurable snow in October is exceedingly rare in Rochester. Since 1950 we’ve only had 3 days that ever had over 1 inch of snow and never a day with more than 3”. So seeing these model outputs teasing a foot is snow is pretty amazing! That 0z run is pretty magical, but the tree damage would be catastrophic if one of these runs verifies. Looks like crazy low ratio stuff (that’s if we can actually flip the column via dynamic cooling on the lake plains). 0z gfs still has it but a little less impactful, 0z euro has the same storm but not the snow yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 BUF NWS completely disregarding GFS for Wed.- Sat....."Cool and dry" BGM at least mentions the threat.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 46 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: BUF NWS completely disregarding GFS for Wed.- Sat....."Cool and dry" BGM at least mentions the threat.... Yeah KBUF has been very vanilla lately with their wording. Friday night forecast was for scattered showers and a rumble of thunder possible...it ended up a line of near severe storms and heavy rain for about an hour or so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 Something's gotta give. You have the GFS/GEM camp which is super amped and the EURO which is suppression city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 Canadian? 0z was suppressed.. It's gfs and para vs all at the moment.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 NWS not buying it.. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Cool and dry as an expansive sfc ridge builds in across the eastern Great Lakes. Below normal temperatures anticipated during this period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 While there is some enthusiasm for the possible event at the end of next week, stay cautious and try not to get too caught up in model runs. Ive lived here for the past 20 yrs and have never seen accumulating snow in October. Can it happen, it sure can and 2020 would be the perfect yr for it to occur, lol, as everything else has this yr, but all kidding aside I doubt we see anything other than a few wet snow flakes mixing in if there is even an event to track. All the models have this event in one form or another so the possibility remains but Id bet for it to head much further NW than what the models are predicting. I do think the EURO out to lunch with its suppression look so early in the season but who knows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 Then again when does KBUF buy any event, lol? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 52 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Canadian? 0z was suppressed.. It's gfs and para vs all at the moment.. Oh damn idk what I was looking at. More squashed than euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 It’s sad when they don’t even mention it solely for the sake of what a novelty it is. I can’t ever recall seeing such a significant snow event (modeled) in late October for WNY, even if it’s just just a couple models that are out to lunch. Its rare, fascinating, and cool. Seems like Buffalo has lost some of its passion. McLaughlin (an old legend at the Buffalo NWS) would have at least mentioned it at the end of his discussion because he seemed to truly get excited about weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 European did take some baby steps at 0z.. Look at the positioning of HP from one run to the next.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 Gfs is pretty much a rain storm lol A few back end flakes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Gfs is pretty much a rain storm lol A few back end flakes.. Yep. She gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 14 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Yep. She gone. I’ll give it until the 0z runs tonight before I throw in the towel! On a side note, should be a very snowy game in Denver today. Will be a fun one to watch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 1 hour ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: While there is some enthusiasm for the possible event at the end of next week, stay cautious and try not to get too caught up in model runs. Ive lived here for the past 20 yrs and have never seen accumulating snow in October. Can it happen, it sure can and 2020 would be the perfect yr for it to occur, lol, as everything else has this yr, but all kidding aside I doubt we see anything other than a few wet snow flakes mixing in if there is even an event to track. All the models have this event in one form or another so the possibility remains but Id bet for it to head much further NW than what the models are predicting. I do think the EURO out to lunch with its suppression look so early in the season but who knows. While I agree with you I will always have to turn to October 11th and 12th 2006...the infamous October surprise LES event that dropped 25” at the airport. After that took place I realized anything can happen... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 2 hours ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: While there is some enthusiasm for the possible event at the end of next week, stay cautious and try not to get too caught up in model runs. Ive lived here for the past 20 yrs and have never seen accumulating snow in October. Can it happen, it sure can and 2020 would be the perfect yr for it to occur, lol, as everything else has this yr, but all kidding aside I doubt we see anything other than a few wet snow flakes mixing in if there is even an event to track. All the models have this event in one form or another so the possibility remains but Id bet for it to head much further NW than what the models are predicting. I do think the EURO out to lunch with its suppression look so early in the season but who knows. A few lake effect events in October.. You just missed out on the event in 2015.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 Canadian is trying lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 41 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: While I agree with you I will always have to turn to October 11th and 12th 2006...the infamous October surprise LES event that dropped 25” at the airport. After that took place I realized anything can happen... And that wasn’t the first time either. I believe it happened in the 40s and late 1800s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 A few lake effect events in October.. You just missed out on the event in 2015.. Wow and it was primarily on a NNW flow which is even more bizarre, lol, but yeah, it was close. Maybe Brian can chime about the October snow in our neck of the woods cause I dont remember any of them but I could definitely be wrong. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 The only one I could find was in 1997.. Obviously this is only lake effect.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 Canadian is trying lol Interesting as thats a pretty nice position one would want to see both the SLP and the HP but the thermals are still well above freezing, weird but this one definitely bears watching especially for the higher elevations of CNY. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 12 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Interesting as thats a pretty nice position one would want to see both the SLP and the HP but the thermals are still well above freezing, weird but this one definitely bears watching especially for the higher elevations of CNY. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Not really. Most of Upstate north of Sullivan co. is ~33° or lower away from lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 13 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Interesting as thats a pretty nice position one would want to see both the SLP and the HP but the thermals are still well above freezing, weird but this one definitely bears watching especially for the higher elevations of CNY. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 The only one I could find was in 1997.. Obviously this is only lake effect.. Yeah thats what I thought cause its definitely anomalous for it to snow in October Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 Maybe the game is on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 I would take it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 Para is back on steroids. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 40 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Para is back on steroids. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 1 hour ago, Ericjcrash said: Temps just south of Lake Ontario are 2 degrees above freezing...with any sort of heavy rates it won’t be hard to imagine enough cooling to take place and change everything to snow...in fact temps just north of Lake Ontario are below freezing. The dynamics are there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 18 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Temps just south of Lake Ontario are 2 degrees above freezing...with any sort of heavy rates it won’t be hard to imagine enough cooling to take place and change everything to snow...in fact temps just north of Lake Ontario are below freezing. The dynamics are there. I agree. Temps verbatim aren't really bad in that solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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