Thinksnow18 Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Always 10days away lol I will say the models did have a good read on the snowstorm for the upper Midwest this week about a week ago, I think climatologically speaking we are a bit early around here but I do think the second week of November is beginning to look interesting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 I’ve also been peering at other forums and there are some signs forming of a colder second part of November and cold December. Might get a shot at a front loaded winter based on some current indications. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 That’s a big fire... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 10 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: That’s a big fire... My sister has a friend who lives in Fort Collins, CO. As of a few days ago the fires were about 40 miles from her. She said the smoke is very noticeable in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 Both the Montague and Binghamton NWS radars are down this morning. Other than local radar central New York has to depend on the radar out of Buffalo which isn’t very accurate in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 11 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: That’s a big fire... Quite the streamer off the lake, eh. Epic view from economy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 Well at least we are cutting into the drought.. Only 1.75" in September, approaching 4" in October with more to come.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 3 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Sometimes those drought maps don't make sense to me, but I'm sure the people doing them are correct. We're approaching 2" from this multi-day event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 In the Catskills ( Liberty NY) till mid November, hopefully some frozen precipation as per the Para GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 While geeking out this morning I threw in TWC to keep any semblance of mainstream media out, and they were discussing the snow that has fallen to this point in the inter mountain west and the northern plains/upper Midwest, there’s 13.8% of the United state’s covered in at least 1”of snow or mire the most ever for this date going back in decades. If the snowpack even stays somewhat north of that area into Canada one would think this could help as the days shorten next Sunday to refrigerate any cold intrusions coming down from Canada as we get into November 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 What a beautiful morning, huh? Nearing 70° as of 10am.. Bottom falls out tomorrow with a high of 49° and declining temperatures throughout the day..Looks like some flakes were introduced from Monday through Wednesday, albeit a small chance Monday Night Rain showers before 2am, then a chance of rain and snow showers. Low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Tuesday A chance of rain and snow showers before 10am, then a chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 44. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Tuesday Night A chance of rain and snow showers after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Wednesday A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 48. Chance of precipitation is 30%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 Not totally in fantasy land. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 37 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Not totally in fantasy land. On Sullivan County (Liberty NY) for a few weeks so hoping that map comes to fruition ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 Swing and a miss on the Canadian but it's there.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 Please let this verify for the catskills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 Better hp placement/timing and "maybe" we have something cooking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 24, 2020 Share Posted October 24, 2020 Para gfs sobered up from its ridiculous 1-3' 0z run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 24, 2020 Share Posted October 24, 2020 Also trees up here @ 2000' are now 99% bare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 24, 2020 Share Posted October 24, 2020 ^^^Beat me to it lol European and Canadian want none of it..Still 6 days out but looks like the gfs/para up to the same old tricks lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 Has support from the ICON now too. Probably out to lunch but interesting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 Only 5 days to start time? Maybe a real threat. Would certainly suck for the kiddos who want to still trick or treat. Trudging through a foot of cement? Doesn’t get more 2020 than that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 1 hour ago, Ericjcrash said: Has support from the ICON now too. Probably out to lunch but interesting. That is within a week... not true fantasy land 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 Para still has it..So yeah, we'll see lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 25, 2020 Author Share Posted October 25, 2020 Safe to say I found winter 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 55 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Para still has it..So yeah, we'll see lol Just looked at the 12z Euro and it has the same concept, pulls the gulf system north and merges it with the 4 corners low and shoots it into the Ohio valley, the H is right over us maybe but north so the cold would be there, but it doesn’t bring the precip shield past the PA line and keeps it liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 Just catching up on models from the last day or so. Wow, good stuff!! 5 days out and tracking a possible historic storm!! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 1 minute ago, DeltaT13 said: Just catching up on models from the last day or so. Wow, good stuff!! 5 days out and tracking a possible historic storm!! Snow I hope you mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 More amped....gonna take a bunch out of the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 14 hours ago, sferic said: Snow I hope you mean Of course! I’m not sure what other aspect would be historic around here? Measurable snow in October is exceedingly rare in Rochester. Since 1950 we’ve only had 3 days that ever had over 1 inch of snow and never a day with more than 3”. So seeing these model outputs teasing a foot of snow is pretty amazing! That 0z run is pretty magical, but the tree damage would be catastrophic if one of these runs verifies. Looks like crazy low ratio stuff (that’s if we can actually flip the column via dynamic cooling on the lake plains). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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