wolfie09 Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 Well out into next weekend and into the early part of the last week of October, some guidance is suggesting a large cold air mass dropping south into the upper Midwest. 850H temps within the center of this cool airmass are approaching -20C in Western Ontario. While this is a long way out, and well to our northwest, this looks to be the coldest airmass of the season and will works its way east toward the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 Beautiful fall frosty morning. Down to 32 here in my neck of the woods, coldest morning of the season so far. Love it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 Beautiful fall frosty morning. Down to 32 here in my neck of the woods, coldest morning of the season so far. Love it. Yeah, same here and I love the look of a frosty Fall morning! Looking like a decent warm up next week approaching the low 70's then whack, a big cool down next weekend. I really like what I'm seeing on the extended so we'll see. I just wanna see a Normal Fall followed by a decent Winter, Not too cold with feet of snow, thats not asking for much, right?Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 It’s the coldest morning so far this fall season. I’m down to 29 here this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 47 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Yeah, same here and I love the look of a frosty Fall morning! Looking like a decent warm up next week approaching the low 70's then whack, a big cool down next weekend. I really like what I'm seeing on the extended so we'll see. I just wanna see a Normal Fall followed by a decent Winter, Not too cold with feet of snow, thats not asking for much, right? Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk We can hope. We can dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 Made it down to 26° overnight, looks like will be waiting a while longer for our first flakes, globals don't have much of interest in the next 10-14 days.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 41 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Made it down to 26° overnight, looks like will be waiting a while longer for our first flakes, globals don't have much of interest in the next 10-14 days.. Yeah that ended quickly. I said it in an earlier post to BW that I’m hoping this isn’t one of those years where the cold and snow always seems 10 to 14 days away but never gets closer 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 We have had 11 night below freezing so far..Guess that's what happens when you move away from the lake and add a little elevation lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 The LR has really mellowed. It may be some time before we have a shot at winter around here...and for those who say “but the lakes will be warmer” that can be a detriment within about 5 to 10 miles away from the lake between rain and snow...it’s early but I’m getting a bit frustrated looking at all the models having such a warm bias for the winter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 Loving this gorgeous fall weather. 60s during the day and upper 30s-40s at night is just perfect. I hope it stays like this for another month before it flips. It’s great to be able to enjoy fall activities and before you know it it’ll be full on winter and we’ll be wishing for nice weather like this to get out of the house. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champy Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 I did a few drone montages on some of the fall scenery in CNY. Very nice this year. Was up in New Hampshire last weekend - also great stuff going on up there. Did end up with 2 ticks on me after a quick jaunt in the woods today near Skaneateles. Crazy how much more common that is now than when I was a kid growing up. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 Gfs back to having a snow event at months end.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 Canadian same time frame.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 I had forgotten about this! Pretty solid early season micro event. Popped up on my fb timeline today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 Euro day 10.. Probably would see some flakes on the backside.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 Looks like a rainy few days ahead.. A cold front crossing the area early this morning will stall from the western Southern Tier to Central NY from late this morning through Tuesday. Several waves of low pressure will ripple along the stalled frontal zone, producing widespread, beneficial rain across the entire region. A mid level shortwave and upper level jet segment will cross the eastern Great Lakes this morning through mid afternoon, with associated forcing and mid level flow adjustments supporting a baroclinic wave running northeast along the stalled frontal zone. This will support widespread rain today across the entire region. There will likely be a brief break in the widespread rain from mid to late afternoon through early this evening, although abundant and deep low level moisture may still support fairly widespread drizzle and/or light rain. Another mid level shortwave and jet segment will then cross the eastern Great Lakes later this evening through the overnight, supporting another round of widespread rainfall. This second batch of widespread rain will then taper off from southwest to northeast Tuesday morning as the frontal wave moves off into eastern NY and New England. There may still be some drizzle left behind through Tuesday afternoon in some locations, especially across the higher terrain. Total rainfall from today through Tuesday will likely reach 0.75-1.0 inch in many areas, with a few locations across the Southern Tier and eastern Lake Ontario region exceeding 1 inch. Low clouds and patchy fog will become a common theme from late this morning through Tuesday morning as abundant low level moisture locks in on the cool side of the stalled frontal zone. The fog may become somewhat more widespread with lower visibilities across higher terrain where the stratus intersects the hilltops. Temperatures will be quite cool, with highs today struggling to reach 50 in many areas. Temperatures will remain fairly steady tonight, with highs only in the lower 50s Tuesday in most locations. Areas from near the PA state line through the Finger Lakes to Oswego County may reach the mid to upper 50s Tuesday if the stalled frontal zone drifts a little north and west. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Shortwave over the upper Midwest and associated sfc low will take aim at the western Great Lakes Tuesday night, then the whole complex passes to our northwest during the day Wednesday. As this occurs, the frontal boundary residing near the Lower Lakes shift back north as a warm front Tuesday night. Still anticipating a few showers with the warm front, then a brief lull in precipitation will occur until the front returns as a cold front early Wednesday afternoon. With the cold front, best forcing appears like it will reside across the North Country and St. Lawrence River Valley. Should also be enough forcing immediately along the front to produce a narrow band of showers. Have bumped up POPs to reflect this scenario across the forecast area and especially across the North Country. Overall, should be a fair amount of dry time Wednesday and mild conditions. Highs will peak in the upper 60s to the low and mid 70s across the Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 I am glad that it’s not been dry recently in the Great Lakes which can help to keep cooler air around vs If the ground was dry. Looking for promise here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 19, 2020 Author Share Posted October 19, 2020 Washington is insane!! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 All my beautiful colors are gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 9 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: All my beautiful colors are gone I’m over the colors, let’s replace it all with glorious white!! 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 21 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: I’m over the colors, let’s replace it all with glorious white!! The color change was in if the faster ones I can remember...give it about 4 weeks, that is a legitimate time frame...in fact I think our biggest synoptic storm was last year right around mid November 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: All my beautiful colors are gone Yeah we done here. I was in the Hudson Valley (New Paltz) over the weekend and they were at peak. It was a beautiful foliage weekend at Minnewaska. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted October 20, 2020 Share Posted October 20, 2020 11 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Washington is insane!! That looks like mt. Baker. I climbed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 20, 2020 Share Posted October 20, 2020 Still receiving some showers of rain, little over 1" since last night, 45°.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted October 20, 2020 Share Posted October 20, 2020 Just been pouring in Rochester. Feels very November 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 20, 2020 Share Posted October 20, 2020 55 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Just been pouring in Rochester. Feels very November The next week cool down is looking a bit stronger on both the euro and the GFS. It’s possible during the nighttime if any precipitation is around the lower elevations might see their first flakes mixing in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted October 20, 2020 Share Posted October 20, 2020 On 10/19/2020 at 10:22 AM, BuffaloWeather said: Washington is insane!! Location/ name of trail? view looks amazing that's why I ask Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 Another decent soaker.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 Always 10days away lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 Yeah, its looking like we're in store for a wet and cool Fall and thats good news going forward so I'm crossing my fingers Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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