Thinksnow18 Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 28 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: It definitely has a cold bias outside of 6-7 days. On the contrary I also believe the Euro overdoes the WAR at times as well. This could lead to a real tight gradient synoptic track in December and especially January 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 14 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: A quick drone video I put together of the beautiful foliage at holiday valley Mavic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 15, 2020 Author Share Posted October 15, 2020 32 minutes ago, vortmax said: Mavic? Yeah Mavic Air. Going to be upgrading to Pro 3 at release. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 15, 2020 Author Share Posted October 15, 2020 1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said: On the contrary I also believe the Euro overdoes the WAR at times as well. This could lead to a real tight gradient synoptic track in December and especially January https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/us-winter-outlook-cooler-north-warmer-south-with-ongoing-la-nina?fbclid=IwAR1CoWldQvKKAcDeoh5h1pgPNbmlDc1QB5xawS90hnjNB22yjIpl1mbO_4c Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 15, 2020 Author Share Posted October 15, 2020 I take this look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 15, 2020 Author Share Posted October 15, 2020 Last years outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 15, 2020 Author Share Posted October 15, 2020 Usually Ninas have a more active northern jet. It's been a long time since we've had a nice clipper pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 Obviously take it with a "grain of salt". Link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 I like what I remember about La Nina storm pattern. Good track for WNY. Less so for CNY/ENY but it all depends on where mother lays down those tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 15 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I take this look. That’s a perfect look, can get several transient lake bands and 2-4” snow falls, also the apps runners are more prevalent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 I’m looking for the snow belts to jump out to a big early start. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 We are on the verge of record breaking territory for the lack of Arctic sea ice for this time of year. It's just insane to see that just 30 or 40 years ago we had nearly twice as much as ice at this time as we do today (~4 million square kilometers more of pack ice!). If you don't think that makes a huge difference in our winters then I don't know what to tell you. Climate change is accelerating and will decimate winters as we know them in the coming decade or two. Just heart breaking to see this.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 15, 2020 Author Share Posted October 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: We are on the verge of record breaking territory for the lack of Arctic sea ice for this time of year. It's just insane to see that just 30 or 40 years ago we had nearly twice as much as ice at this time as we do today (~4 million square miles more of pack ice!). If you don't think that makes a huge difference in our winters then I don't know what to tell you. Climate change is accelerating and will decimate winters as we know them in the coming decade or two. Just heart breaking to see this.. I saw that the other day. There is a reason all long term winter outlooks show all red and orange. It's not because they have a warm bias, its because of global warming. The entire planet on average is warming at an accelerating rate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 Could be the first actual accumulation in the Northeast/New England with this next system.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brentrich Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 The weather channel just released their 3 months outlook for DJF (including November) all 4 months above average in the northeast, do you believe them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 38 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Could be the first actual accumulation in the Northeast/New England with this next system.. This is quite plausible and right on schedule with this regions first historical accumulation. Will most like be elevations above 3000 feet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 5 hours ago, DeltaT13 said: We are on the verge of record breaking territory for the lack of Arctic sea ice for this time of year. It's just insane to see that just 30 or 40 years ago we had nearly twice as much as ice at this time as we do today (~4 million square kilometers more of pack ice!). If you don't think that makes a huge difference in our winters then I don't know what to tell you. Climate change is accelerating and will decimate winters as we know them in the coming decade or two. Just heart breaking to see this.. Will it really decimate our winters though? I mean, the sun will still leave the Arctic for 6 months and the ice will reform through the winter. How much difference will it make down here at lower latitudes if the temps are -20 on average around the arctic circle versus -30? I know this is oversimplifying things and no doubt temps are warming. Maybe it’s more a question of how warm can we really get in winter months when farther northern latitudes will always be super cold thanks to no sun. To counter my own thoughts, perhaps the normal seasonal snow pack pushes north year after year, say from near Ottawa now (they always seem to retain a pack when we torch and green in winter!) to insert name of Canadian town here. In which case we end up with winter climo of Columbus, OH in 25 years. So yeah, decimated would be a good choice of words in that scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 16, 2020 Author Share Posted October 16, 2020 lake effect rain band off erie over my area tonight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 Some frost advisories issued for this evening.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 “Snowy” look to the radar today. I assume it’s snow at 10,000’ or something and melting before it gets to the ground? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_rules Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 31 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Some frost advisories issued for this evening.. I don’t like how they do this. The 10 of us on this weather forum understand why they are not showing frost advisories for the rest of the counties in upstate NY, but the 15 people in my office think there will be a frost in those counties but no frost in the counties where they don’t show a frost advisory. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 14 hours ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Will it really decimate our winters though? I mean, the sun will still leave the Arctic for 6 months and the ice will reform through the winter. How much difference will it make down here at lower latitudes if the temps are -20 on average around the arctic circle versus -30? I know this is oversimplifying things and no doubt temps are warming. Maybe it’s more a question of how warm can we really get in winter months when farther northern latitudes will always be super cold thanks to no sun. To counter my own thoughts, perhaps the normal seasonal snow pack pushes north year after year, say from near Ottawa now (they always seem to retain a pack when we torch and green in winter!) to insert name of Canadian town here. In which case we end up with winter climo of Columbus, OH in 25 years. So yeah, decimated would be a good choice of words in that scenario. I'll have to search for the paper, but I remember reading that a study predicted that lake effect snow would increase with climate change. Don't quite remember the reasoning....warmer lake waters perhaps? Still need the cold temps though. Outside of a lake effect area, I can see reasoning for a diminishing winter impact. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 1 hour ago, winter_rules said: I don’t like how they do this. The 10 of us on this weather forum understand why they are not showing frost advisories for the rest of the counties in upstate NY, but the 15 people in my office think there will be a frost in those counties but no frost in the counties where they don’t show a frost advisory. Well those places have already been rocked by a hard freeze so it doesn’t really make a difference. The damage is done. The plants are gone and the growing season ended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 Little bit of lake effect rain, sitting at about 3/4" of rain since last night.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 Let me preface this by saying I’m buying into a vaccine for Covid by Christmas (which is next to 1% on a scale) than I am into the 12z train wreck known as the GFS but for a minute it would be effing incredible if what’s on there played out at months end... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 Gonna have to keep an eye on the lake band late tonight into early tomorrow. Maybe see some graupel? Now, northeast of Lake Erie including Buffalo Metro will be tricky as temps will fall quickly and some patchy frost may try to start to form in outlying areas away from the city. However, just as that occurs, arrival of upstream shortwave and swath of deeper moisture in large scale trough swing across which along with sw low-level flow with H85 temps -2c will set up a lake response off Lake Erie aimed toward Buffalo Metro. Forecast soundings show lake equilibrium levels climbing toward 20kft, so lake response could be robust, at least briefly. Pops were already high, but increased QPF some. Heavest lake effect could produce rain amounts over 0.50 inch later tonight if they stay stationary long enough. As this lake effect ramps up, expect temps later tonight downstream of Lake Erie to rise back into the 40s. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 Same text mentions the cold blast at the end of next weekend into the following week, this might have legs... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Same text mentions the cold blast at the end of next weekend into the following week, this might have legs... We'll see. It's late October then so it's bound to get cold sooner or later but seems like it gets delayed every run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 Euro!!! (Practicing for winter) Has some flakes at the end of it's run lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 16 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Euro!!! (Practicing for winter) Has some flakes at the end of it's run lol Gotta think even with rain at lower elevations those temps are upper 30’ at best. This could get interesting for the lake belts if comes to fruition. And did the euro just cave to the GFS at long range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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