Upstate/Eastern New York

[BuffaloWeather]

So I'm bored at work. What are the top 5 best LES events in history off of Erie and then off of Ontario?

I'll try Erie, I don't have access to my history book but this is a good start. 

1.) Nov 2014

2.) Oct 2006

3.) Dec 2001

4.) Dec 1945

5.) Jan 1985/Dec 1995/Dec 2010

[NEOH]

34 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

So I'm bored at work. What are the top 5 best LES events in history off of Erie and then off of Ontario?

I'll try Erie, I don't have access to my history book but this is a good start. 

1.) Nov 2014

2.) Oct 2006

3.) Dec 2001

4.) Dec 1945

5.) Jan 1985/Dec 1995/Dec 2010

One of the best and earliest I can remember off of Erie in Ohio - http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/(Gh)/arch/cases/961109/home.rxml

[Thinksnow18]

38 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

So I'm bored at work. What are the top 5 best LES events in history off of Erie and then off of Ontario?

I'll try Erie, I don't have access to my history book but this is a good start. 

1.) Nov 2014

2.) Oct 2006

3.) Dec 2001

4.) Dec 1945

5.) Jan 1985/Dec 1995/Dec 2010

It's interesting you say that. I think the '85 blizzard was the most impactful as it was over the densely populated metro...i then follow that with 01 because again that was a 5 day event and everyone from the northtowns to southtowns received a minimum 2 ft with the sweet spot being west Seneca at 83 inches. Now as far as historical 06 will always be #1 because it was literally 3 weeks after we had a 90 degree high in Sept that year, if memory serves me...'14 was really just south Cheektowaga to orchard park and while no storm can touch it's amount of snow in those 2 events, it matters a bit who was affected.

[wolfie09]

A few off Ontario in no particular order..

 

Obviously only going back to the mid 90s..

[CNY_WX]

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

So I'm bored at work. What are the top 5 best LES events in history off of Erie and then off of Ontario?

I'll try Erie, I don't have access to my history book but this is a good start. 

1.) Nov 2014

2.) Oct 2006

3.) Dec 2001

4.) Dec 1945

5.) Jan 1985/Dec 1995/Dec 2010

You left off January 1977.  Is that because it wasn’t pure lake effect or because it was before your time?

[Thinksnow18]

5 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

You left off January 1977.  Is that because it wasn’t pure lake effect or because it was before your time?

Lmao sort of both! I was 2 1/2 at that time and have zero memory of that whole year. Also it was a low pressure system that dropped out of the NW, this is from reading about it, kicking up 50 to 60 mph wind gusts and dropping only about 10 or so inches...but the real hay was the amount of snow that built up on the lake that year. It's the earliest on record of the lake freezing in Buffalo record keeping history and was the largest annual snow fall at 199". That was a huge wind maker more than anything else.

[Buckeyes_Suck]

I’m a huge fan of dec 2001and nov 2000

[DeltaT13]

1 hour ago, CNY_WX said:

You left off January 1977.  Is that because it wasn’t pure lake effect or because it was before your time?

The lake was completely frozen over.  That amazing storm should never be mentioned with lake effect events.  I think only 10 inches of snow fell during the whole thing.  It was a windstorm with a huge snowpack.

[BuffaloWeather]

2 hours ago, NEOH said:

One of the best and earliest I can remember off of Erie in Ohio - http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/(Gh)/arch/cases/961109/home.rxml

This is awesome. I did not even know about this one. 70" is an incredible event. I believe Erie has produced only a handful of these. 5-6 total throughout record keeping. 

[BuffaloWeather]

36 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

The lake was completely frozen over.  That amazing storm should never be mentioned with lake effect events.  I think only 10 inches of snow fell during the whole thing.  It was a windstorm with a huge snowpack.

Yep. There was nearly 40" of snow on lake erie as it froze that year extremely early (Late December) that blew with 70+ mph winds all over WNY for a period of a few days. This in conjunction with the foot of new snow that fell caused the blizzard of 1977. That storm is still unbeaten in WNY. 

[BuffaloWeather]

2 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said:

It's interesting you say that. I think the '85 blizzard was the most impactful as it was over the densely populated metro...i then follow that with 01 because again that was a 5 day event and everyone from the northtowns to southtowns received a minimum 2 ft with the sweet spot being west Seneca at 83 inches. Now as far as historical 06 will always be #1 because it was literally 3 weeks after we had a 90 degree high in Sept that year, if memory serves me...'14 was really just south Cheektowaga to orchard park and while no storm can touch it's amount of snow in those 2 events, it matters a bit who was affected.

Any event that effects WNY can be included. Even the big time southern tier events could. But those bands are usually weaker and easier to deal with then the 3-5" per hour events up in Erie county. Also much less population down there. 

[NEOH]

5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

This is awesome. I did not even know about this one. 70" is an incredible event. I believe Erie has produced only a handful of these. 5-6 total throughout record keeping. 

It was incredible and an experience I will never forget. Pretty remarkable to get those kind of totals in northeast ohio with the limited fetch we have to deal with. We were without power for 5 days due to the tree damage. I will probably never see that amount of thundersnow again in my lifetime. Every night the sky would be illuminated with a greenish tint from the lightning. The snow would diminish in intensity during the day as it became more cellular... then get heavy again every night. Once in a lifetime for sure. 

[BuffaloWeather]

8 minutes ago, NEOH said:

It was incredible and an experience I will never forget. Pretty remarkable to get those kind of totals in northeast ohio with the limited fetch we have to deal with. We were without power for 5 days due to the tree damage. I will probably never see that amount of thundersnow again in my lifetime. Every night the sky would be illuminated with a greenish tint from the lightning. The snow would diminish in intensity during the day as it became more cellular... then get heavy again every night. Once in a lifetime for sure. 

The dynamics of early season events are unmatched. Everything has to come together to make it work, but when it does nothing beats it. I remember the Dec 2010 event had constant lightning and thunder all night. It was incredible. 

[Thinksnow18]

6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The dynamics of early season events are unmatched. Everything has to come together to make it work, but when it does nothing beats it. I remember the Dec 2010 event had constant lightning and thunder all night. It was incredible. 

I do remember that...even in the baren wasteland of central Cheektowaga...we received roughly a foot and a half as the band passed north and again on the way back...that second pass was at night and at minimum for the 2 or so hours or was over us we picked up about 8" and I lost count of the lightning strikes...if I didn't know better I would've thought it was a July thunderstorm.

[BuffaloWeather]

54 minutes ago, NEOH said:

It was incredible and an experience I will never forget. Pretty remarkable to get those kind of totals in northeast ohio with the limited fetch we have to deal with. We were without power for 5 days due to the tree damage. I will probably never see that amount of thundersnow again in my lifetime. Every night the sky would be illuminated with a greenish tint from the lightning. The snow would diminish in intensity during the day as it became more cellular... then get heavy again every night. Once in a lifetime for sure. 

Feel free to post this winter of the LES events down there. We are impacted by the same lake, makes more sense for you to be in our forum then Centrals. Just don't go cheering for NW wind on me.

[NEOH]

6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Feel free to post this winter of the LES events down there. We are impacted by the same lake, makes more sense for you to be in our forum then Centrals. Just don't go cheering for NW wind on me.

HA! I'm usually cursing you folks when its partly cloudy in Ohio while WNY gets buried for days on a WSW wind direction. I'll definitely be around this winter. Hopefully its a decent one. Let's keep the lakes warm until November. 

[BuffaloWeather]

Euro long range is a carbon copy of last winter. Maybe even worse. Ridiculous central pac ridge, AK vortex, raging +NAO. 

[TugHillMatt]

15 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Euro long range is a carbon copy of last winter. Maybe even worse. Ridiculous central pac ridge, AK vortex, raging +NAO. 

Is this like the new eternal winter pattern?

[BuffaloWeather]

45 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Is this like the new eternal winter pattern?

That's the new earth pattern.

[wolfie09]

Hopefully we are getting it out of the way now 

[cleetussnow]

I’m still digging out from the euro seasonal forecast for last winter.  

[Geez150]

2 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

Is this like the new eternal winter pattern?

I sure hope not! Was really under the early belief that we would have a normal winter here in WNY, but that dream may be fading fast.

[TugHillMatt]

1 hour ago, cleetussnow said:

I’m still digging out from the euro seasonal forecast for last winter.  

Hah! True that.

5 minutes ago, Geez150 said:

I sure hope not! Was really under the early belief that we would have a normal winter here in WNY, but that dream may be fading fast.

Hopefully they're just "blips" but it's hard to go against recent model output given recent winters.

[Thinksnow18]

Not that I put much stock in any long range models, I do believe the norm will be milder winters overall to the mean. Not to say severe winter weather won't occur, however, the days of long cold snaps with small warmups are replaced by longer mild stretches with shots of cold...reminiscent of last year.

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

10 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

So I'm bored at work. What are the top 5 best LES events in history off of Erie and then off of Ontario?

I'll try Erie, I don't have access to my history book but this is a good start. 

1.) Nov 2014

2.) Oct 2006

3.) Dec 2001

4.) Dec 1945

5.) Jan 1985/Dec 1995/Dec 2010

I think it all depends how the storm impacted you with how it would rate.  Would be hard for me to rank a storm I didn’t live through or don’t really remember.  I’d say...

1.  Nov 2014. Just epic.

2.  Oct 2006.  The destruction was just insane.

3.  Dec 2001.  Crazy snow total but really didn’t have a huge impact like Nov 2014 did.

4.  Dec 2010. Was right in the small sweet spot for this one.  Was also stranded in my vehicle for 4 hours.

5.  Nov 2000.  The impact to the downtown commute has never been repeated.  
 

Sleep Pick.  Jan 2017.  The intensity and timing of that band 28” in 6 hours not well forecasted hitting the height of the PM commute.   

 

[wolfie09]

[Thinksnow18]

8 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

From The late gord downie new Orleans is sinking and I don't wanna swim...

[BuffaloWeather]

Has cat 5 potential in the next 48 hours. 

[BuffaloWeather]

tropical depression to cat 4 in less then 24 hours. I don't think I've ever seen that. 

[Thinksnow18]

15 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

tropical depression to cat 4 in less then 24 hours. I don't think I've ever seen that. 

No that's crazy...and I was conversing with my wife about the models after the seasonal forecasts came out yesterday. The LR models have a warm bias, the GFS a cold bias and hurricane models consistently go lower than the strength eventually gets to...in fact as if last night the storm was never expected to get past cat 2...the other canes this year also went well past predicted strength...not a good time for model consistency...