wolfie09 Posted October 1, 2020 Share Posted October 1, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 1, 2020 Share Posted October 1, 2020 55 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: The whole state is about 2 weeks ahead of schedule. This is the first time I can recall that in some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 1, 2020 Author Share Posted October 1, 2020 Graupel counts as winter precip correct? If so, just got the first trace of the season here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 1, 2020 Share Posted October 1, 2020 51 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Graupel counts as winter precip correct? If so, just got the first trace of the season here. I know we had hail yesterday but it must be much colder at 850 today if that's the case! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 1, 2020 Share Posted October 1, 2020 I see the band is shifting again...i can't lie I know it's rain but this does have me geeked up for 7 or so weeks from now potentially... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 1, 2020 Author Share Posted October 1, 2020 41 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I know we had hail yesterday but it must be much colder at 850 today if that's the case! Hail is from severe weather, sleet is from winter weather. I know we had graupel in 2007 in October in lake effect rain band and KBUF counted it as winter precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 1, 2020 Author Share Posted October 1, 2020 2007-2008 Buf airport winds stayed at 200/210...keeping temps in 30s...while city and north saw 250 winds. A new intense band formed ahead of the approaching trof and was perhaps enhanced by this additional wind boundary and brought several intense cells right up over the Buffalo Airport and on to western Genesee County. Over an inch of QPF fell in the form of very heavy graupel...which amounted to 2-3 inches in this narrow area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 1, 2020 Author Share Posted October 1, 2020 https://kamala.cod.edu/ny/latest.nous41.KBUF.html 2.67" in West Seneca. 24 hour totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted October 1, 2020 Share Posted October 1, 2020 I distinctly remember driving around in Buffalo in early October 2003 and getting pounded with graupel. It was very chilly! I just looked back and sure enough, there it is! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 1, 2020 Author Share Posted October 1, 2020 The top analog for a winter based on QBO/NINO/Solar/etc....is 2007-2008. I'd take that winter pretty quickly. The tug region did much better than WNY did. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted October 1, 2020 Share Posted October 1, 2020 34 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: The top analog for a winter based on QBO/NINO/Solar/etc....is 2007-2008. I'd take that winter pretty quickly. The tug region did much better than WNY did. A lot of Gulf Low's that winter. Outside of LES, I'm assuming Western NY did pretty well with those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 1, 2020 Author Share Posted October 1, 2020 1 hour ago, Snowstorms said: A lot of Gulf Low's that winter. Outside of LES, I'm assuming Western NY did pretty well with those. Very good synoptic year, below average lake effect year for us. Slightly above average for tug. Toronto had a great year. Insane cell about to move over my house. Is that thing rotating? @DeltaT13 https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=BUF-N0Q-0-6# 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 1, 2020 Author Share Posted October 1, 2020 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN ERIE COUNTY... At 748 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Angola on the Lake, or 13 miles southwest of Hamburg, moving east at 25 mph. Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail are possible with this storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted October 2, 2020 Share Posted October 2, 2020 7 hours ago, wolfie09 said: I'd advance central NY near Cooperstown to past peak on that map. We had spectacular colors over the weekend. The rain has brought down at least 50% of those colorful leaves and the remainder are getting dull quickly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 2, 2020 Share Posted October 2, 2020 Was hoping for some sunset spout watching but storms came in too late and was too dark. Got a few nice lightning shot. Quality sucks uploading to here. Thoughts on the red circle? Waterspout? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 2, 2020 Share Posted October 2, 2020 8 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Was hoping for some sunset spout watching but storms came in too late and was too dark. Got a few nice lightning shot. Quality sucks uploading to here. Thoughts on the red circle? Waterspout? That or the rain shaft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 2, 2020 Share Posted October 2, 2020 3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Insane cell about to move over my house. Is that thing rotating? @DeltaT13 https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=BUF-N0Q-0-6# This would be that cell. Would have been right down my line of sight along the lakeshore. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 2, 2020 Author Share Posted October 2, 2020 snow on whiteface 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted October 2, 2020 Share Posted October 2, 2020 Snow showers in the high peaks of the ADK'S. Whiteface mtn posted a video of snow falling. It's a chilly one here today, that wind makes it feel even colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 4, 2020 Author Share Posted October 4, 2020 Looks like another above normal month incoming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 4, 2020 Author Share Posted October 4, 2020 Through 9 months this year we are at a departure of +3.16 month spread out over all 9 months, or +28.5 total on the year. Has to be close to warmest year on record? (2012) Right now we are at an average temp of 53.98 for the year. 2012 is ranked #1 and finished at 52.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 4, 2020 Author Share Posted October 4, 2020 On 10/2/2020 at 3:43 PM, Revracer800 said: Snow showers in the high peaks of the ADK'S. Whiteface mtn posted a video of snow falling. It's a chilly one here today, that wind makes it feel even colder. From people on the trails this week nearly every high peak has had some accumulating snow on it. Microspikes needed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Looks like another above normal month incoming? I like that. The averages are still in the 50s for most of the region during this time period so an extended period of 60s and hopefully sunny weather would be nice. I enjoy winter but lets get a few weeks of sun and 60s/30s and then end of October switch to 30s and wet snow and lake effect/snow chances. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Through 9 months this year we are at a departure of +3.16 month spread out over all 9 months, or +28.5 total on the year. Has to be close to warmest year on record? (2012) Right now we are at an average temp of 53.98 for the year. 2012 is ranked #1 and finished at 52.1 I don’t think you can use KBUF numbers with how their sensor was way hot for quite some time. I bet it’s one of the warmest years on record but I would question that we’re nearly 2 degrees above it at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 4, 2020 Author Share Posted October 4, 2020 1 hour ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: I don’t think you can use KBUF numbers with how their sensor was way hot for quite some time. I bet it’s one of the warmest years on record but I would question that we’re nearly 2 degrees above it at this point. That's because Oct/Nov/Dec will lower that number substantially. I doubt we finish above 2012 with that low of a difference already. April/May brought down the average quite a bit. We should finish in the top 5 warmest though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brentrich Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 9 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Looks like another above normal month incoming? Nah it will be short lived above average. EURO and GPS is showing trough in the east middle of October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 Fall. Pumpkin pie, apples, Halloween, the smell of freshly fallen leaves and...the inevitability of the GFS fantasy runs!!! https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ The fantasy in the making begins in the October 15th timeframe...and just for consistency it shows up in the 00z as well!!! Lmao...i missed these days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said: Fall. Pumpkin pie, apples, Halloween, the smell of freshly fallen leaves and...the inevitability of the GFS fantasy runs!!! https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ The fantasy in the making begins in the October 15th timeframe...and just for consistency it shows up in the 00z as well!!! Lmao...i missed these days... As far a GFS fantasy runs go this is tame and not too unrealistic for mid-late October. The fantasy runs are inevitable though lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 5, 2020 Author Share Posted October 5, 2020 2 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said: Fall. Pumpkin pie, apples, Halloween, the smell of freshly fallen leaves and...the inevitability of the GFS fantasy runs!!! https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ The fantasy in the making begins in the October 15th timeframe...and just for consistency it shows up in the 00z as well!!! Lmao...i missed these days... Fantasy runs are the best runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Fantasy runs are the best runs. Lmao...they are!!! Especially after a summer as hot as this was...ill take any fantasy eye candy I can get!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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