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Upstate/Eastern New York


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3 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

18 runs of the Hi Res really want to blow up that lake band over BUF.  4-6” of rain through Friday AM?  KBUF office doesn’t even sound interested in their AFD...

 

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They should be excited because it’s cool but likely a non event from the standpoint of any sort of damage or concern. If we half those totals so they are realistic, 2-3 inches of rain in 24-36 hours after weeks of below normal rainfall is beneficial and likely easily absorbed. 

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21 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

They should be excited because it’s cool but likely a non event from the standpoint of any sort of damage or concern. If we half those totals so they are realistic, 2-3 inches of rain in 24-36 hours after weeks of below normal rainfall is beneficial and likely easily absorbed. 

As long as this replicates itself in about 9 weeks or so I'll be fine with it

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Just got back from Lake George for my buddies bachelor party. It was warm enough Saturday to take a boat out and go tubing and cliff jumping. Then hiked up and backpacked the Gothic high peak loop on Sunday/Monday. It was sunny and warm in the town and chilly and wet the entire 15 hour and 19 mile hike. Just brutal up there! The entire high peak region is just about at peak foliage. Unfortunately couldn't see anything above 3,000 feet due to being in the clouds/fog. Up to 19/46 peaks!

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1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said:

There is definitely a model that KBUF is looking at that's not impressive. Just not sure which one it is...

It’s because the total precip output maps are notoriously off by a factor of 2 or even 3x.  We all know this from the clown maps during all winter storms.  

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53 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

It’s because the total precip output maps are notoriously off by a factor of 2 or even 3x.  We all know this from the clown maps during all winter storms.  

I agree about the clownmaps during the winter, but ultimately I chalk that up to ratios and storm intensity and track. In the spring summer and fall I kinda believe the liquid amounts of rainfall more than the accumulation of snow/sleet. Now I'm definitely not advocating were getting 4" to 6" by any stretch but 2" to 2 1/2" would not surprise me.

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43 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

 

I agree about the clownmaps during the winter, but ultimately I chalk that up to ratios and storm intensity and track. In the spring summer and fall I kinda believe the liquid amounts of rainfall more than the accumulation of snow/sleet. Now I'm definitely not advocating were getting 4" to 6" by any stretch but 2" to 2 1/2" would not surprise me.

Much needed, btw.

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9 hours ago, Syrmax said:

Good place to hike. I snowshoe there in the winter also.  Rain just got going here down to 58F.  I guess its adios to our last gasp of summer...

Great idea. I will have to take my snowshoes with me in the winter. I probably won't get out of work in time to do it in the evenings I love the 10K trail (yellow trail). You get back in those deep woods and there is nobody around!

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29 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

This "cold" shot sure fizzled away. One day of 50s for highs and then it's pretty much back to normal temps for early October. Cold fronts bring "normal" temps these days...lol

Tug where are you at now? The forecast for temps the next 6 days are all below average and 4 of them in the upper 50's...

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7 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Tug where are you at now? The forecast for temps the next 6 days are all below average and 4 of them in the upper 50's...

The Syracuse region...the warmest place in Upstate New York (outside of maybe Dansville and Elmira)...somebody could fart on top of one of the hills South of here and our temps would warm up.

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3 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

This "cold" shot sure fizzled away. One day of 50s for highs and then it's pretty much back to normal temps for early October. Cold fronts bring "normal" temps these days...lol

The forecast changes over the last few days have been a good winter preseason reminder for all of us that:

a)  The models will constantly show cold air *just* around the corner, and;

b)  The models will show multiple large lake effect events which will dwindle to a minor event, probably in a different location, once the event actually takes place. 


I’m not trying to be negative, but the 7-10 day forecast often looks cold and/or snowy, only for it to fade as we get closer to those actual dates.  Then the process starts over again....

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13 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Round 2 upcoming and round three out over the lake just looks plain nasty.

Yeah, just started really cranking here. We haven’t received any meaningful rain here since early June (the lake shadow did it’s best to make my neighborhood a desert this summer), so this is a welcome sight. 

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1 hour ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

Yeah, just started really cranking here. We haven’t received any meaningful rain here since early June (the lake shadow did it’s best to make my neighborhood a desert this summer), so this is a welcome sight. 

The lake is active! Im close to 1" for the day since 7am. The diurnal effects are taking hold, even one month later this would be a steady, solid band instead of cellular precip

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