Thinksnow18 Posted September 24, 2020 Share Posted September 24, 2020 Why does the forecast for next week looking less chilly by the day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brentrich Posted September 24, 2020 Share Posted September 24, 2020 6 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Why does the forecast for next week looking less chilly by the day? I'm from Rochester, NY and the forecast from few days ago and today shows still the same to me for next week. Maybe it's different form where you are from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted September 24, 2020 Share Posted September 24, 2020 Slower trend with the CF for the beginning of the week.. The back half of the week looks similar here with mid 50s-low 60s for highs.. Cold front that was once to approach and bring a showery day on Sunday continues to trend slower. Increased temps more on Sunday now into the upper 70s to near 80F and now have lowered to only slight chance of rain across the board, but it would appear we are on our way to a dry forecast. Slower trend in the front continues Sunday night through Monday night as well. Was looking like due to slow moving front crossing and right entrance of upper jet that some of the region on Monday would see widespread showers with even a small risk of thunder. Not so sure on that now. Temps will be cooler than the warm weekend, but if this slower trend holds, we would still make it to the lower 70s for much of the area on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 24, 2020 Share Posted September 24, 2020 13 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Why does the forecast for next week looking less chilly by the day? Because it’s the GFS at 10 days out and this is what it does all the time lol. It also shows a big cool shot and then as it gets closer it keeps pushing it further and further back and makes it look less and less impressive each run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted September 24, 2020 Share Posted September 24, 2020 LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A pattern shift will take place through the Long Term and warm, dry weather will transition to cool, wet weather by Thursday. Unfortunalty, there are different model solutions during the Long Term period and therefore confidence remains low in regards to intensity and timing of some weather features. A southerly flow continues across the eastern Great Lakes Monday. Clouds and showers are possible as a cold front approaches from the Central Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Temperatures will likely reach the 70s through the afternoon. A deepening trough across the central U.S. will become squeezed between two strong ridges on both sides by Tuesday. This may produce a cut off low across the Lower Mississippi Valley while a shortwave trough moves across the Great Lakes into mid-week. Whether low pressure forms along the cold front or the cold front moves through the eastern Great Lakes Tuesday-Wednesday, showers are likely. A period of windy conditions during this time can`t be ruled out. The shortwave trough will evolve into a large scale trough across much of the eastern CONUS. Cool, Canadian air will filter south across the Great Lakes. A cool, showery period is likely late in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted September 24, 2020 Share Posted September 24, 2020 It's definitely passed "just changing" in the higher elevations of the tug..Took a ride through barnes corner, worth, Loraine and into N Redfield, trees looks quite advanced lol Some really nice color.. Probably should take some pics next time I roll through lol Just outside Copenhagen, 1200 feet asl.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 There's some nice colors really starting to show here this week...especially over the past 2 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_rules Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 48 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: There's some nice colors really starting to show here this week...especially over the past 2 days. Same thing in the Catskills. The changes have been visible almost daily the last few days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 Couple of the recent runs showing a real nice high wind event next week (). Could get a little dodgey with all the trees still holding full foliage. This is also the reason for the delayed cold push. That storm blows up and retrogrades back West in the recent models! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 8 hours ago, DeltaT13 said: Couple of the recent runs showing a real nice high wind event next week (). Could get a little dodgey with all the trees still holding full foliage. This is also the reason for the delayed cold push. That storm blows up and retrogrades back West in the recent models! There's not much holding the leaves on here. We are changing colors by the day and with almost no rain the last 2 weeks they are going to come down quickly in wind and rain I think. Could be a very compressed foliage season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 Some much needed rain.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 Just under 1/4" of rain so far this month.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 16 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said: Why does the forecast for next week looking less chilly by the day? Persistent cloud cover. With that -NAO block building up near Newfoundland were likely going to see some lake effect rain showers and constant clipper activity for the next week or so. The GFS stalls the low in Hudson Bay for a few days too. It'll be cool and wet regardless. Our best chance for widespread frost will likely be next weekend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 15 hours ago, winter_rules said: Same thing in the Catskills. The changes have been visible almost daily the last few days. Possibly peak weekend coming up? If we get a good storm next week it could be. Very pretty drive around this morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 21 hours ago, DeltaT13 said: Couple of the recent runs showing a real nice high wind event next week (). Could get a little dodgey with all the trees still holding full foliage. This is also the reason for the delayed cold push. That storm blows up and retrogrades back West in the recent models! Oh, yay. Cutters even suck in the early fall too. Right when the leaves start changing...knock em down! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 11 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Unfortunately even as Monday into Tuesday forecast seems to be getting better tuned now, the Wednesday into Thursday period is becoming fraught with uncertainty. Mainly this is tied to the ECMWF and Canadian handling of upper trough over the middle of the North America. Both these models are insistent on larger trough from central Canada to northern Plains/Upper Great Lakes with stronger trough digging farther south across the southern United States. This solution is somewhat supported by 12z EC and NAEFS ensembles but it is not supported by GFS. Long story short, the non-GFS solutions would bring that southern stream system back across the northeast later Wednesday into Thursday while the GFS is more broadbrushed in bringing gradually colder and more moist cyclonic sw flow into our region within the broad troughing pattern. Current forecast is more GFS like, but looking at these trends from the ECMWF and Canadian, some adjustments to forecast may eventually be needed Wed-Thu. Eventually all models do show the trough and cold air settling across, but it may now not be until very late in the week. Models often struggle in these type of strong pattern changes and that seems like what is occurring this time around. The climate is just making sure we have yet another above normal September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 8 hours ago, Flying MXZ said: Possibly peak weekend coming up? If we get a good storm next week it could be. Very pretty drive around this morning. Wow! Quite early! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted September 27, 2020 Share Posted September 27, 2020 LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A longwave trough will slowly pass over our region this period, bringing chances for rain showers each day. Early in the period cold air aloft and southwesterly flow ahead of the trough may generate lake effect rain to the northeast of the lakes Wednesday - Friday, while Friday night and Saturday a westerly flow will focus rain showers east of the Lakes. October will open with much below normal temperatures, with highs Thursday - Saturday 6 to 12F degrees below normal. Overnights will be chilly, and while there will be concerns for frost/freeze late in the period as 850 hPa temperatures dip below zero Celsius, the presence of the upper level trough/moisture and lacking strong surface high/subsidence may not lead to much areal coverage of frost/freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted September 27, 2020 Share Posted September 27, 2020 I am guessing there will be too much cloud cover and breeziness with this next push of cold air to allow for much frost or freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted September 27, 2020 Share Posted September 27, 2020 Colors really starting to blossom, just wish I had better camera phone lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted September 28, 2020 Share Posted September 28, 2020 For fun the 00z GFS has a really interesting retrograde low the second weekend of October that would give the Adirondacks their first flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted September 28, 2020 Share Posted September 28, 2020 11 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Colors really starting to blossom, just wish I had better camera phone lol Yea, it was a beautiful weekend in the Catskills. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted September 28, 2020 Share Posted September 28, 2020 Took a day trip up to Old Forge and Inlet area Saturday. The fall colors up there are absolutely beautiful right now, was such a beautiful day for a ride. Old Forge was a zoo, crazy how many people were there. Even the fall colors on the southern part of the Tug Hill were beautiful. On the way home stopped in Redfield, damn is the reservoir extremely low, never seen it that low. So glad i got to take the trip for the day. Leaving Old Forge the traffic on 28 heading into town was back up a good 2-3 miles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted September 28, 2020 Share Posted September 28, 2020 Some more tropical activity at the end of the run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted September 28, 2020 Share Posted September 28, 2020 Gfs trending wetter for mid week.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted September 28, 2020 Share Posted September 28, 2020 RGEM now goes out to 84 on pivotal, which is a nice touch with winter coming up.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted September 28, 2020 Share Posted September 28, 2020 34 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: RGEM now goes out to 84 on pivotal, which is a nice touch with winter coming up.. I think the Buffalo metro gets a good dose of LER tomorrow night thru Wed. All models showing about a 24 hour stretch of SW winds in that time frame and good moisture...too bad this wasn't 8 weeks from now... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted September 28, 2020 Share Posted September 28, 2020 3 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said: I think the Buffalo metro gets a good dose of LER tomorrow night thru Wed. All models showing about a 24 hour stretch of SW winds in that time frame and good moisture...too bad this wasn't 8 weeks from now... Yup, global canadian shows it well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted September 28, 2020 Share Posted September 28, 2020 Time to start hunting those first flakes lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted September 28, 2020 Share Posted September 28, 2020 Latest WPC rain forecast through Wednesday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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