backedgeapproaching Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 14 minutes ago, PhineasC said: The scenario some of us are hoping for is a heavy snow thump of 3-5, followed by a short soak of 35 degree rain (not a pack annihilator), and then finally back to several inches of upslope powder. Freeze that all solid afterwards. That’s how this becomes a net gainer. We will see. Right, that's the way rainer's should be---not 24 hours of 50F Dews that wipes out everything in sight. I think those that are In and Up will see a net gain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 17 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said: Right, that's the way rainer's should be---not 24 hours of 50F Dews that wipes out everything in sight. I think those that are In and Up will see a net gain. The 06z NAM and RGEM show a fairly short window of plain rain here. Very likely a decent period of non-accumulating slop on either end of that too. The track is really bad but the surface result isn't terrible. Seems like they ticked a little colder. Rates also look really good for MBY for a period which might hold off some of the rain. They seem to support the general idea we are targeting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 It will be a refreshing change of pace to see a cold front blast through here quickly to shut off the rain instead of getting stuck in PA for 24 hours like happened in the last two cutters. Here's hoping... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MRVexpat Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Yeah weird track for sure but a pretty good thump on the front end and then prolonged upslope on the back end so hopefully solid net gainer. Will be checking out the Sherbie this weekend, anyone hear of latest conditions there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 35 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Agreed, I just hope the rain period is shortened and it will at least be cold rain, not the 60 degree Grinch nonsense. I have about 5 inches OTG right now. I am figuring by Sunday night I could still have that in some form (perhaps glacier layer with fluff on top, or perhaps just 5 inches new fluff). It's pretty sad that this is what we have to work with this winter. This is more like a MD winter storm, where we are begging for scraps and hoping the rain is cold... I have about 3" left here but we looked to be starting from a clean slate once again after this one, Looking at 40's and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Just now, dryslot said: I have about 3" left here but we looked to be starting from a clean slate once again after this one, Looking at 40's and rain. Damn, the worm has gotta turn soon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Just now, PhineasC said: Damn, the worm has gotta turn soon... I think the rest of Jan is cooked after this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: I think the rest of Jan is cooked after this one. Don't disagree. If I was still down south full time, I would have read the tea leaves after Grinch and thrown in the towel then. The promise of future copious amounts of bread 'n butter and frigid temps is keeping me going here for now... I know it doesn't help you as a snowmobiler, but if the ski places can get and stay 100% open I will just punt the rest of the winter IMBY if needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Feb needs to rock harder than a Judas Priest/Iron Maiden/Ozzy Osborne joint world tour to celebrate the end of COVID lockdowns to make up for this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Don't disagree. If I was still down south full time, I would have read the tea leaves after Grinch and thrown in the towel then. The promise of future copious amounts of bread 'n butter and frigid temps is keeping me going here for now... I know it doesn't help you as a snowmobiler, but if the ski places can get and stay 100% open I will just punt the rest of the winter IMBY if needed. The one good thing is, From your area NNW into the Rangeley-Jackman corridor look to cash in on this, I have guys i ride with in Eustis and a place to stay so i'm banking on getting up there next weekend if this one pans out, Its thin there too right now with like 6-8" in that area and more in some of the 3-4,000' elevations where we ride so it looks for the near future i will be trailering up there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 45 minutes ago, PhineasC said: I have about 5 inches OTG right now. Everyone has roughly 5 inches OTG as an average it seems, ha. Highest is only 8" at 1,000ft near Jay Peak. Pretty crazy how uniform the snow depths are. Even only 14" at 4,000ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jculligan Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 While I'm not super optimistic about the outcome of this event imby, the recreationist in me is fairly excited about the potential for the high country on the east side of Mount Washington. It looks like thermal profiles support mostly snow for the duration of the event at elevations above 3000' and potentially down to 2000'...and with a pretty robust easterly LLJ, I think there will be a period of pretty impressive snowfall rates for places from Pinkham Notch up to Hermit Lakes. Ratios won't be very impressive, but I can definitely envision up to 15" of dense base-building snow to finally open up some of the backcountry terrain on the east side of MWN (Gulf of Slides, Sherburne Ski Trails). I might finally be able to stop lapping groomers when this is over. Good upslope potential for the Vermonters and Alex/Phin on the backside of this thing Sunday into Sunday night as well. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Maybe we get the Messenger shuffle over the next 24 hrs or so to help some areas out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 14 minutes ago, dryslot said: Maybe we get the Messenger shuffle over the next 24 hrs or so to help some areas out. I think your namesake will probably be the biggest limiting factor here. Blows through south of the mountains pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I think your namesake will probably be the biggest limiting factor here. Blows through south of the mountains pretty quickly. Once the WF lifts north, With its current track, That's all we can hope for down here at this point, I'd rather have it NW of here anyways, It would take at least 2 in the 6+ range down here for riding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 1 hour ago, dryslot said: I think the rest of Jan is cooked after this one. 06z GFS agrees. Gives me perhaps a 1" starter atop my 5" pack, then 1"+ RA at U30s to 40. Then it shows the first sustained cold of the season but only about 0.05" qpf for the rest of the 16-day. Suppression city? I don't think that forecast will totally destroy our little pack but may leave the driveway needing both 5-gal buckets of wood ashes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 1 minute ago, tamarack said: 06z GFS agrees. Gives me perhaps a 1" starter atop my 5" pack, then 1"+ RA at U30s to 40. Then it shows the first sustained cold of the season but only about 0.05" qpf for the rest of the 16-day. Suppression city? I don't think that forecast will totally destroy our little pack but may leave the driveway needing both 5-gal buckets of wood ashes. Suppression is real, That will just pour more salt into an gaping wound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 12hr GFS, NAM 3k and 12k seem to want to hold onto the cold a little longer. Reggie is a soaker. Ekster/ Legro have confidence in their forecasts? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 43 minutes ago, dryslot said: Maybe we get the Messenger shuffle over the next 24 hrs or so to help some areas out. 12z gfs puts the line right over my chimney. We've seen how this works. Expecting a net gain, although it will be fugly. Gonna head north and west for playtime this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 30 minutes ago, MarkO said: 12hr GFS, NAM 3k and 12k seem to want to hold onto the cold a little longer. Reggie is a soaker. Ekster/ Legro have confidence in their forecasts? 12z GGEM is a little colder too. Less of a horror show run than 00z was. Trend is on. Let's see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 53 minutes ago, dryslot said: Once the WF lifts north, With its current track, That's all we can hope for down here at this point, I'd rather have it NW of here anyways, It would take at least 2 in the 6+ range down here for riding. It looks like a tightrope. Could be a bit of a blue bomb into the foothills, but could also be 33 and rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 10 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: It looks like a tightrope. Could be a bit of a blue bomb into the foothills, but could also be 33 and rain. Yeah, It does look borderline on soundings depending on model of choice there, I'm going to make the trek towards the Rangeley-Jackman corridor as we gain more elevation so i have a little more confidence for that area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 43 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said: 12z gfs puts the line right over my chimney. We've seen how this works. Expecting a net gain, although it will be fugly. Gonna head north and west for playtime this weekend. The slp track blows for this time of year, If we had a decent high over QUE this would be off the coast and most would be in better position for snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MRVexpat Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 12z euro SSE of 0z at the onset of precip and then gets shunted east quicker. Weenie maps a bit more robust fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Just now, MRVexpat said: 12z euro SSE of 0z at the onset of precip and then gets shunted east quicker. Weenie maps a bit more robust fwiw. Yeah, blasts me with a big thump, followed by a little rain, and then upslope. Sign me up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: Yeah, blasts me with a big thump, followed by a little rain, and then upslope. Sign me up. Couple tics colder, Looks good over you and NW of there, Hope its right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 0.75-1.00” of rain here and then call it a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 17 minutes ago, dendrite said: 0.75-1.00” of rain here and then call it a day. Similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 2 hours ago, OceanStWx said: It looks like a tightrope. Could be a bit of a blue bomb into the foothills, but could also be 33 and rain. 6" paste for Mile Hill at 800', 1" (at most) slush in MBY at 390'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 53 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Yeah, blasts me with a big thump, followed by a little rain, and then upslope. Sign me up. Phin, what’s your elevation there? Interesting to see how this plays out for you there. I’m optimistic that I’m going to have enough elevation to get a solid gain and hopefully, kill it on the upslope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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