NNE Cold Season Thread 2020-2021

[qg_omega]

Think this is a gainer for the dacks, not seeing much if any rain

[backedgeapproaching]

00z NAM pretty damn fugly.

[qg_omega]

4 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

00z NAM pretty damn fugly.

Looks pretty good to me, solid hit 

[PhineasC]

Just now, qg_omega said:

Looks pretty good to me, solid hit 

Wrong forum?

[qg_omega]

Just now, PhineasC said:

Wrong forum?

You know we do talk about the dacks in the NNE mountain thread

[PhineasC]

2 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

You know we do talk about the dacks in the NNE mountain thread

00z NAM looks like a ton of rain for your area, just at quick glance. Unless I am mistaken about your spot.

[backedgeapproaching]

5 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Looks pretty good to me, solid hit 

Well, you know I'm not referring to the Dacks...its bad for everyone in this forum. 

Although it does have the backside upslope up and down the spine and over into N NH after it moves into Southern Canada.

[PhineasC]

11 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Well, you know I'm not referring to the Dacks...its bad for everyone in this forum. 

Although it does have the backside upslope up and down the spine and over into N NH after it moves into Southern Canada.

Hopefully the mesos are too amped and the globals stick with the more eastern solution.

[alex]

Even the NAM solution would mean (if that) bare ground for a few hours followed by upslope. It’s not like we have that much to lose. A 5” snowpack would be very easy to make up in an upslope area. But if course, it’s the NAM at 84 hrs so I wouldn’t expect much reliability (nor at 60, for that matter)

[backedgeapproaching]

Just now, PhineasC said:

Hopefully the mesos are too amped and the globals stick with the more eastern solution.

For sure.. NAM and Reggie are pretty similar(in a bad way) but it's still long range for those mesos. Stick with globals for now, but keeping an eye open for that as an option too.

[qg_omega]

22 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

00z NAM looks like a ton of rain for your area, just at quick glance. Unless I am mistaken about your spot.

Looks like 6  to 8 inches at Gore to me on the NAM.  NAM and RGEM smoke the dacks, wow

[PhineasC]

6 minutes ago, alex said:

Even the NAM solution would mean (if that) bare ground for a few hours followed by upslope. It’s not like we have that much to lose. A 5” snowpack would be very easy to make up in an upslope area. But if course, it’s the NAM at 84 hrs so I wouldn’t expect much reliability (nor at 60, for that matter)

I'm timing coming back up there on Sunday so in theory by the time I get there late it will be like the rain never happened! LOL

[PhineasC]

6 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Looks like 6  to 8 inches at Gore to me on the NAM.  NAM and RGEM smoke the dacks, wow

If the low cuts inland like the NAM, that depiction is a period of heavy cold rain after the thump. Verbatim.

[PhineasC]

RGEM looks too cold to me given the track (at 850 -- surface is torching). Definitely a better look for the Adirondacks versus VT or NH with that track. Hope the globals stay east.

[qg_omega]

4 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

If the low cuts inland like the NAM, that depiction is a period of heavy cold rain after the thump. Verbatim.

No, that’s a classic track for the dacks, it’s a Gore jackpot track on the NAM and RGEM.

[PhineasC]

Just now, qg_omega said:

No, that’s a classic track for the dacks, it’s a Gore jackpot track on the NAM and RGEM.

You would know better than me. Best of luck.

[LaGrangewx]

9 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

No, that’s a classic track for the dacks, it’s a Gore jackpot track on the NAM and RGEM.

Heading up to Gore for Thursday, Friday but they’re sold out for the weekend. Thinking of trying to hit Oak Mountain for some runs on Saturday. Agreed forecast looks great as of now for Saturday. Looking more and more like 6+ really hoping it holds.

[PhineasC]

The 00z GFS is still pretty decent. Definitely not buying the NY/VT border track.

Basically just one panel where temps are iffy.

[J.Spin]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

See I'll disagree, I don't really see any issue with this discussion.  Seems to lay it out that to the vast majority of their snow lover population this won't be a big net gain.

I think the disco lays it out pretty honestly... for the vast majority of their population it will be a net loss, with the only exception being the few folks living in Coos County like Alex and Phin.

For most snow lovers who live outside the sparsely populated areas, it won't be a good event...I actually think the AFD would be misleading if it was the other way around, advertising this as a positive event for the bulk of snow lovers, ha.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
...Potential for a Moderate Impact Event This Saturday...
Model guidance remains in good agreement for the first
significant system in a few weeks it seems. A rapidly developing
surface low on an approaching closed 500mb trough in the Ohio
River valley will tap into Atlantic moisture on Saturday. IVT
values are in the 90th percentile with a descent atmospheric
river signature, but the signature if brief. Pattern recognition
and longevity of this quick moving system most likely support a
1" widespread rainfall event on the coastal plain, with 1.5"
across the southerly favored upslope areas. Most of the rain
will fall in a quick 6hr burst moving from the south to north
through the day. This is definitely an all rain event south of
the mountains except for a brief period of snow to mix across
the Lakes/Foothills Saturday morning. Overall, this will be a
snowmelt storm for the majority of the area, so bare ground for
mid-January looks to be the case by this weekend. The only
exception will be the higher terrain of the mountains, where the
snow could hang on a bit longer, but expect a changeover even
here all the up to 3K feet. The only area we have to watch for a
potential wet snow event would be Northern COOS county if
things trend just a little cooler. Overall not a good event for
snow lovers.

I totally agree that they’re hitting things correctly for the majority of the population, but I guess I’m just used to the way the BTV NWS typically seems to give sufficient attention to the mountains as well.

Doesn’t GYX cover the Presidentials?  Obviously there’s no population there, but it’s a huge alpine recreation area of interest to a lot of people, and it’s hard to believe that it’s simply going to be all rain there.  Does the weather in the Presidentials get covered only in a special recreation forecast?

I guess ultimately these AFDs aren’t really for the public anyway, but the BTV NWS clearly knows that skiers and other mountain recreationalists are using them.  I find them to be an excellent resource when trying to plan ahead for skiing, other winter recreation, etc.

[MRVexpat]

GFS and variants look borderline good for north country even into NW ME. Solid thump to dry slot/drizzle to upslope. Lots of moisture for pack augmentation. Would sign for that now tbh. Such a needle threader tho

[PhineasC]

11 minutes ago, MRVexpat said:

GFS and variants look borderline good for north country even into NW ME. Solid thump to dry slot/drizzle to upslope. Lots of moisture for pack augmentation. Would sign for that now tbh. Such a needle threader tho

Hoping for some east tics (messenger shuffle) over the next couple of cycles as we close in.

[powderfreak]

7 hours ago, J.Spin said:

I totally agree that they’re hitting things correctly for the majority of the population, but I guess I’m just used to the way the BTV NWS typically seems to give sufficient attention to the mountains as well.

Doesn’t GYX cover the Presidentials?  Obviously there’s no population there, but it’s a huge alpine recreation area of interest to a lot of people, and it’s hard to believe that it’s simply going to be all rain there.  Does the weather in the Presidentials get covered only in a special recreation forecast?

I guess ultimately these AFDs aren’t really for the public anyway, but the BTV NWS clearly knows that skiers and other mountain recreationalists are using them.  I find them to be an excellent resource when trying to plan ahead for skiing, other winter recreation, etc.

I’ve had this discussion about the Whites with a few people, and there seems to be a thinking that the Mount Washington Observatory is more the unofficial forecast office for that zone.  Their discussions and forecasts can be fairly in-depth at times for the mountains, and they issue on a regular cadence.  It’s an interesting side angle to have another well renowned weather office (not NWS) covering those mountains.

I think of it like out west, the NWS offices will issue watches/warnings and grids for the mountains, but they let the Avalanche Centers really take over the nitty gritty details.  For example I think the Utah Avalanche Center is actually in the same office area as the SLC NWS.

This is a great resource:

https://www.mountwashington.org/experience-the-weather/higher-summit-forecast.aspx

[alex]

GYX seems to have heard us:

In the mountains, the air mass will initially be cold enough for
wintry precipitation through perhaps half of the event. Using a
blend of column temperatures to derive precip type and amounts,
the potential exists for a plowable amount of snow/sleet in the
White mountains northeastward to Rangeley and Jackman. These
areas will likely mix with sleet and perhaps a few pockets of
freezing rain before eventually going over to a cold rain before
ending. Winter weather advisories may be needed for these
areas.

Winds may be an issue as well, mainly on the coast. Much of the
model suite has converged on a stronger southeasterly LLJ on the
immediate coast Saturday, with values up to 65 knots at 950 MB.
Inverted low levels will keep these highest winds aloft,
however forecast soundings are showing some degree of steep
lapse rates below 950mb which will be capable of mixing down
30-35 knot gusts on the coast Saturday. Not completely out of
the question that we`ll need a wind advisory there which is
generally issued for 26 kt sustained winds and/or 40 knot gusts.

Most of the steady, heavy precipitation shuts off as the
afternoon progresses on Saturday. Thereafter, we`ll have strong
NW flow in place along with upslope snow showers in the
mountains through Sunday night. Could get several inches of snow
in favored areas such as W/NW facing slopes. Thereafter, fair
weather is expected through Tuesday night.

[backedgeapproaching]

BTV going very elevation dependent which is not surprising.

 

[PhineasC]

The GFS and Euro folded to the mesos on the VT/NH border track. 

[dryslot]

Another non winter event on tap, Hate to see it.

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Another non winter event on tap, Hate to see it.

The scenario some of us are hoping for is a heavy snow thump of 3-5, followed by a short soak of 35 degree rain (not a pack annihilator), and then finally back to several inches of upslope powder. Freeze that all solid afterwards. That’s how this becomes a net gainer. We will see. 

[dryslot]

Just now, PhineasC said:

The scenario some of us are hoping for is a heavy snow thump of 3-5, followed by a short soak of 35 degree rain (not a pack annihilator), and then finally back to several inches of upslope powder. Freeze that all solid afterwards. That’s how this becomes a net gainer. We will see. 

You will see the kitchen sink, Some of these model tracks are real ugly.

[TheMainer]

This is starting to get worse than 2016 for me, at least that year we were able to ride in Quebec and I got 1500 miles of a 2500 mile total up there...

Last year sucked but north of Greenville stayed good and we did over 1,800 miles after March 15th as we kept doing big loops in the Maine north woods off trail until April 18th.

This year I have 60 miles on just cutting out blowdowns with my little tundra from that stupid paste job and I got 10 miles on the lake last Saturday with the 850.

I'm just hoping we don't lose the entire pack as CAR is predicting a 2 inch front end thump before rain. If we can hang onto a crusty 5 inches we might be able to groom with the next 10 inch storm. If we lose it all again we're gonna be in tough shape... At least next week looks good for the ice.

[PhineasC]

8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

You will see the kitchen sink, Some of these model tracks are real ugly.

Agreed, I just hope the rain period is shortened and it will at least be cold rain, not the 60 degree Grinch nonsense.

I have about 5 inches OTG right now. I am figuring by Sunday night I could still have that in some form (perhaps glacier layer with fluff on top, or perhaps just 5 inches new fluff). 

It's pretty sad that this is what we have to work with this winter. This is more like a MD winter storm, where we are begging for scraps and hoping the rain is cold...