NNE Cold Season Thread 2020-2021

[qg_omega]

43 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The ol’ 998 over GFL.

CMC running the border, crush job

[PhineasC]

I feel personally attacked by the latest GYX AFD. LOL

Man, f*ck your atmospheric river.   

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 0.2” Snow/Trace” L.E.

 

According to the BTV NWS AFD, last night’s snow was from the upper-level shortwave passing just southwest of forecast area.  It looks like that system has moved on east of the region, and the next shortwave mentioned in the discussion is one approaching from north of the Great Lakes today.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.2 inches

New Liquid: Trace

Temperature: 27.0 F

Sky: Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 6.5 inches

[powderfreak]

25 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

Event totals: 0.2” Snow/Trace” L.E.

 

According to the BTV NWS AFD, last night’s snow was from the upper-level shortwave passing just southwest of forecast area.  It looks like that system has moved on east of the region, and the next shortwave mentioned in the discussion is one approaching from north of the Great Lakes today.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.2 inches

New Liquid: Trace

Temperature: 27.0 F

Sky: Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 6.5 inches

It wasn’t snowing here and then I saw the ASOS was ripping 1/2sm moderate snow at MVL, ha.  Radar had a real narrow band probably only a couple miles wide going right through the ASOS.

METAR KMVL 131305Z AUTO 00000KT 1/2SM SN FZFG BKN013 OVC035 M03/M04 A2997 RMK AO2 P0000 T10281039

[J.Spin]

It was just cloudy at observations time this morning, but snow has started back up here at our site.  The next shortwave isn’t expected to be in the area until tonight, so it’s a bit tough to pinpoint where this snow is coming from, but one of the earlier BTV NWS AFD entries does give a bit of insight:

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

315 AM EST Wed Jan 13 2021

 

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

As of 306 AM EST Wednesday...Very little change anticipated today from Tuesday acrs our fa. Water vapor shows several weak embedded 5h vorts in the west/northwest flow aloft, along with narrow ribbons of enhanced mid lvl moisture.

[alex]

1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

I feel personally attacked by the latest GYX AFD. LOL

Man, f*ck your atmospheric river.   

Lol. We are on the same boat on that river they want us rafting down 

[qg_omega]

6z NAM was a bomb 

[PhineasC]

7 minutes ago, alex said:

Lol. We are on the same boat on that river they want us rafting down 

I am praying that this is just some hedging of bets with all the rain talk. Even a little rain book-ended by some snow is fine. I may lose it if we have another cutter that wipes out the fragile pack. I will yell at a cloud for sure.

[amarshall]

We're booked for the loaf this weekend.  With all the covid protocols we had to book weeks ago. Complete dartboard with weather. 

[borderwx]

Dusting cycle continues....

 

 

 

[J.Spin]

56 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Seems like a really tall order under the current weather regime. Need a total pattern flip. My temp has only been single digits a couple times this winter... really abnormal based on the past data I looked at. 

LOL, you’re killin’ us with the freak out episodes Phin – it must be the Mid-Atlantic weenie in you or something.  I’m not sure what a “pattern flip” would actually mean for us up here, but my advice would be to not screw with what looks like a potentially great week or more ahead for resurfacing the slopes and/or building the base.

If you’re looking for snow along the coast in the Mid-Atlantic, sure there might need to be some change in the pattern, but you have to change your mind set for your NNH place.  A classic example I see discussed time and time again in the forum would be zonal flow.  I’ve always found it weird how every subforum along the east coast seems to malign a typical zonal flow pattern, because it’s filled with “pacific puke” or whatever.  Seriously, if a typical, average, zonal flow isn’t going to cut it for snow in your location, then it’s really the location, not the pattern.  In places like that, looking for snow is going to mean constantly looking ten days out for that perfect pattern or storm to line up, because that’s really what it takes to get snow.  For things to work out in the snow department in those sorts of locations you’d need a better than average, or in some cases a far better than average pattern that represents just a small percentage of a typical winter.  Aside from when things do actually line up, it just seems like an exercise in medium to long-range model watching.

It’s literally been snowing on your Randolph webcam this morning.  I think you said you were down south for a bit now?  Hopefully it’s not that environment getting to you!

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, J.Spin said:

LOL, you’re killin’ us with the freak out episodes Phin – it must be the Mid-Atlantic weenie in you or something.  I’m not sure what a “pattern flip” would actually mean for us up here, but my advice would be to not screw with what looks like a potentially great week or more ahead for resurfacing the slopes and/or building the base.

If you’re looking for snow along the coast in the Mid-Atlantic, sure there might need to be some change in the pattern, but you have to change your mind set for your NNH place.  A classic example I see discussed time and time again in the forum would be zonal flow.  I’ve always found it weird how every subforum along the east coast seems to malign a typical zonal flow pattern, because it’s filled with “pacific puke” or whatever.  Seriously, if a typical, average, zonal flow isn’t going to cut it for snow in your location, then it’s really the location, not the pattern.  In places like that, looking for snow is going to mean constantly looking ten days out for that perfect pattern or storm to line up, because that’s really what it takes to get snow.  For things to work out in the snow department in those sorts of locations you’d need a better than average, or in some cases a far better than average pattern that represents just a small percentage of a typical winter.  Aside from when things do actually line up, it just seems like an exercise in medium to long-range model watching.

It’s literally been snowing on your Randolph webcam this morning.  I think you said you were down south for a bit now?  Hopefully it’s not that environment getting to you!

I get it, all snow is nice. But it will take 40-50" to even get me over 100" at this point, which is well below average and basically what Randolph received in the horrid winter of 2015-2016. I mean, at some point it is OK to acknowledge it's been a lousy winter. There is little pack OTG across NNE (especially Maine), lakes and ponds are barely iced over, the major ski places are not even 75% open even in mid-winter... 1-2" per day is fine as long as we have pack. Hopefully this Saturday event doesn't wipe out the fragile pack we all have.

And yes, being in MD this week is causing these meltdowns. LOL

[bwt3650]

14 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

LOL, you’re killin’ us with the freak out episodes Phin – it must be the Mid-Atlantic weenie in you or something.  I’m not sure what a “pattern flip” would actually mean for us up here, but my advice would be to not screw with what looks like a potentially great week or more ahead for resurfacing the slopes and/or building the base.

If you’re looking for snow along the coast in the Mid-Atlantic, sure there might need to be some change in the pattern, but you have to change your mind set for your NNH place.  A classic example I see discussed time and time again in the forum would be zonal flow.  I’ve always found it weird how every subforum along the east coast seems to malign a typical zonal flow pattern, because it’s filled with “pacific puke” or whatever.  Seriously, if a typical, average, zonal flow isn’t going to cut it for snow in your location, then it’s really the location, not the pattern.  In places like that, looking for snow is going to mean constantly looking ten days out for that perfect pattern or storm to line up, because that’s really what it takes to get snow.  For things to work out in the snow department in those sorts of locations you’d need a better than average, or in some cases a far better than average pattern that represents just a small percentage of a typical winter.  Aside from when things do actually line up, it just seems like an exercise in medium to long-range model watching.

It’s literally been snowing on your Randolph webcam this morning.  I think you said you were down south for a bit now?  Hopefully it’s not that environment getting to you!

It’s the mid Atlantic conditioning.  We live with hearing “a pattern change is coming” and “this one should stay all snow” to wake up to 2.75” of dog crap.  I get where he’s coming from.  It takes some adjusting to realize being up here, you just let it play out.  The averages are the averages and mountain climate will win.  I’m at an advantage in Vermont tho, you know with the Vermont chill.  Anytime I have some snow anxiety, I throw on a flannel, crank some phish, and go watch the Subaru’s drive by. 

[Hitman]

53 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I am praying that this is just some hedging of bets with all the rain talk. Even a little rain book-ended by some snow is fine. I may lose it if we have another cutter that wipes out the fragile pack. I will yell at a cloud for sure.

I hate cutters more than most everyone, damn them all to hell, but I've learned to accept that they are a fact of life.  Certainly won't be the last we see of them this season.

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, Hitman said:

I hate cutters more than most everyone, damn them all to hell, but I've learned to accept that they are a fact of life.  Certainly won't be the last we see of them this season.

They've just been extra nasty lately. I am fine with snow to a little rain back to snow. Temps get into the low to mid 30s for a spell. No issues with that. 2 days of temps in the 50s with 4" of rain...? No. LOL

[PhineasC]

4 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

It’s the mid Atlantic conditioning.  We live with hearing “a pattern change is coming” and “this one should stay all snow” to wake up to 2.75” of dog crap.  I get where he’s coming from.  It takes some adjusting to realize being up here, you just let it play out.  The averages are the averages and mountain climate will win.  I’m at an advantage in Vermont tho, you know with the Vermont chill.  Anytime I have some snow anxiety, I throw on a flannel, crank some phish, and go watch the Subaru’s drive by. 

We are certainly not immune from a bad hemispheric pattern. I get that the mountains produce, the mountains are awesome, etc. But the mountains are not creating even seasonable cold air, or blocking warmth from surging north as a low approaches.

[Hitman]

12 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I get it, all snow is nice. But it will take 40-50" to even get me over 100" at this point, which is well below average and basically what Randolph received in the horrid winter of 2015-2016. I mean, at some point it is OK to acknowledge it's been a lousy winter. There is little pack OTG across NNE (especially Maine), lakes and ponds are barely iced over, the major ski places are not even 75% open even in mid-winter... 1-2" per day is fine as long as we have pack. Hopefully this Saturday event doesn't wipe out the fragile pack we all have.

And yes, being in MD this week is causing these meltdowns. LOL

We have yet to begun to fight.  things do look bleak atm, but that's just because we havent had a real prolific period which usually happens at some point.  Whether it happens in January, february or march, who knows, but chances are it happens.  and then there's mud season.    hang in there.

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, Hitman said:

We have yet to begun to fight.  things do look bleak atm, but that's just because we havent had a real prolific period which usually happens at some point.  Whether it happens in January, february or march, who knows, but chances are it happens.  and then there's mud season.    hang in there.

Law of averages definitely says a good period is coming. 

[Hitman]

8 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

They've just been extra nasty lately. I am fine with snow to a little rain back to snow. Temps get into the low to mid 30s for a spell. No issues with that. 2 days of temps in the 50s with 4" of rain...? No. LOL

'nothing we haven't seen many times before, unfortunately.  Now if we could just get these damn mountains up to about 10k feet, we'd be in a much better place.

[Hitman]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

Law of averages definitely says a good period is coming. 

If you want to make yourself feel better, take a look at the '06-'07 season.  Brutal torch december into january, modest improvement in the latter parts of january early february, then the vday bonanza followed by st. pattys day and easter dumps.

[rclab]

9 minutes ago, Hitman said:

'nothing we haven't seen many times before, unfortunately.  Now if we could just get these damn mountains up to about 10k feet, we'd be in a much better place.

Good observation and I guess, depending on plate movement, not likely for awhile. I often wonder if, instead of the Mississippi, we had the shallow inland sea that was believed to have existed. How different would east coast weather be? As always ....

[wxeyeNH]

Being born in Metro Baltimore and living down there till the age of 22 I understand Phin's worry.   Totally different mind set after living up here for 20 years.  This winter has sucked.  (Other than than the quick 2 feet of snow in 12 hours).  Snowfall is below normal and temperatures above.  Newfound Lake is almost wide open.  I never see that in Mid January.  Jeez,  Alex has barely gone below zero at nights.  Take what you have seen so far as your bottom baseline.  It doesn't get much worse than this.   Even if you go from snow to rain with the next system and back to snow with the net system I bet you come out of it with a net gain!   Promise!!  (Or I will ship up a lump crab cake to Randolph)

[J.Spin]

39 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

It takes some adjusting to realize being up here, you just let it play out.  The averages are the averages and mountain climate will win.  I’m at an advantage in Vermont tho, you know with the Vermont chill.  Anytime I have some snow anxiety, I throw on a flannel, crank some phish, and go watch the Subaru’s drive by. 

That’s some seriously sage advice – indeed it looks like that NVT vibe is a good fit for you.  Of course, having one of those semi-private powder sessions in the local hills like you did yesterday can really help in that regard.

[powderfreak]

55 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

It’s the mid Atlantic conditioning.  We live with hearing “a pattern change is coming” and “this one should stay all snow” to wake up to 2.75” of dog crap.  I get where he’s coming from.  It takes some adjusting to realize being up here, you just let it play out.  The averages are the averages and mountain climate will win.  I’m at an advantage in Vermont tho, you know with the Vermont chill.  Anytime I have some snow anxiety, I throw on a flannel, crank some phish, and go watch the Subaru’s drive by. 

Haha there ya go!  I just picture Phin in his log estate just blasting Phish and jam band music through thousands of square feet.... tossing out green plaid flannel to the kids and telling them to channel their inner mountain chill.  Breath in with Mr Madison and nature, out with the mid-Atlantic.

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

And yes, being in MD this week is causing these meltdowns. LOL

Will you be back up north for the weekend?

The only advice I can give is it will snow at some point.  The law of averages works out.  Might be really crappy and as a first timer pouring over records all summer I get what the expectation was, figuring you'd have warning snows once a week.  What'll happen is we'll get 20" in May or something too.  The snow season is long, April is definitely a snowfall month in the mountains, some Aprils can be huge.  There's plenty of time to at least get some good periods going.  And if not, well then we try again next year.  Eventually it likes to even out, in the past 5-10 years I've definitely changed from angst over a bad winter to just letting the process play out and see where the cards fall.  Eventually climo will win out.

[powderfreak]

12z GEM goes up the Champlain Valley.  Not what we wanted to see there.  Closer to the NAM solution.

I will say, I find the 12z GFS east and weak more suspect given the larger scale upper level pattern.  The 5H plots with a trough axis in like the Great Lakes looks like a cutter set-up, but somehow the GFS punts it east.  The upper level winds are just like screaming almost due south to north at even 250mb. 

[powderfreak]

Hopefully we can use coldest climo time of year to produce something, but stepping back and looking at the overall set-up.  We don't usually get big snows with an ULL going from Toronto to Watertown, NY.

12z NAM

[alex]

1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

They've just been extra nasty lately. I am fine with snow to a little rain back to snow. Temps get into the low to mid 30s for a spell. No issues with that. 2 days of temps in the 50s with 4" of rain...? No. LOL

I think we see a net gain. And that's usually the case with most cutters anyways, unless they really flood us with warm air. It seems that the most likely scenario is snow to a mix/dryslot to backend upslope -> net result, we gain. That's based on my abysmal knowledge of weather and about 37 seconds spent looking at models; should really go a long way to make you feel better. 

[Hitman]

25 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Hopefully we can use coldest climo time of year to produce something, but stepping back and looking at the overall set-up.  We don't usually get big snows with an ULL going from Toronto to Watertown, NY.

12z NAM

I'll ride the gfs which currently has me at about 4" for saturday and another couple for monday.

[J.Spin]

2 hours ago, PhineasC said:

I get it, all snow is nice. But it will take 40-50" to even get me over 100" at this point, which is well below average and basically what Randolph received in the horrid winter of 2015-2016. I mean, at some point it is OK to acknowledge it's been a lousy winter. There is little pack OTG across NNE (especially Maine), lakes and ponds are barely iced over, the major ski places are not even 75% open even in mid-winter... 1-2" per day is fine as long as we have pack. Hopefully this Saturday event doesn't wipe out the fragile pack we all have.

There’s little doubt that snowfall/snowpack are generally below average up here, even well below average in terms of snowpack for some spots, but it’s probably a bit unnerving in your case because it’s your first season at your new place and I’m sure you’d love it to really deliver at an above average pace.

Those of us who have lived in this climate for a while have a bit more perspective, and I can tell you that the current state of things is really not that unprecedented.  I know that the Randolph CoCoRaHS site doesn’t have as long a record as I do here, and things may be slightly more off the average pace over there, but I can let the data do the talking.  The mean seasonal snowfall through Jan 12 at our site is 64.0”, and this season’s total was 57.9” through yesterday.

That total is perfectly respectable, and even ahead of the pace for a number of seasons.  Look at the snowfall through Jan 12^th for the list of seasons below at our site – some of them were way behind where we are now:

2015-2016:  20.2”

2006-2007:  26.6”

2011-2012:  46.0”

2013-2014:  48.8”

2016-2017:  53.6”

In terms of snowpack, we’ve currently got 6.5” at the stake, and it’s basically been up and down in that range for close to two weeks at this point.  Average snowpack depth for this date at our site is 9-10”, and looking at my records, there are 6 to 7 seasons where the snowpack for this date was lower than it is right now.

Yes, we know if you integrate the snowpack over the season thus far, SDD are well below average.  That only matters so much outside the high elevations in the early season because in the lower elevations, as you’ve seen, snowpack can be nearly wiped out in some cases, but it can also quickly return to normal levels.

Remember, below average winter weather up here in the mountains of NNE is still really, really wintry, not just in a regional sense, but even in a national sense.  From what I’ve seen over the years, the tenor of this board is sort of set by folks living in climates where 80-90% of their time is spent looking for the “next big pattern” or “next big storm”.  Many people seem to be more interested in tracking the models and the thrill of big winter weather events vs. the actual practical utility of the snow with respect to everyday life.  I just find that it sets up a tenor that is one of frequent dissatisfaction, impatience, and anxiousness.

Things may be below average at your Randolph place, but if you think about it, there’s enough snow to ski, the kids can go sledding, the ground is covered, I’m sure there’s ice around for skating, and it’s definitely winter, etc.  People often forget that an important perk of a climate like the mountains of NNH is that a below average, or even a way below average winter regime still gives you a very functional winter.  There are groups like snowmobilers and other folks who need deep snowpack or ice that are definitely getting short changed a bit with the current state of the winter, but a lot of winter activities are moving along quite well.  It’s also hard to see this next storm totally wiping out your snowpack at your Randolph house, and the forecast really does look decent for the coming period around here.