bwt3650 Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 42 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Just a "weenie" clown map. 18Z GFS Kuchera snow map through Jan 24. At least some things to watch. Even 1/3 of this would be nice Hmmm...I could see some glades opening up with that. It certainly beats the “0” inches the last seven days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 58 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Just a "weenie" clown map. 18Z GFS Kuchera snow map through Jan 24. At least some things to watch. Even 1/3 of this would be nice 14 minutes ago, bwt3650 said: Hmmm...I could see some glades opening up with that. It certainly beats the “0” inches the last seven days. There’s no color key on the map, but assuming that lavender magenta coloring is ~50”, that would definitely get most of the glades rolling. Actually, for a 14-day period, 1/3 of that amount would represent a below average snowfall pace for the local mountains; something in the range of ½ of those amounts would likely be about average. With how far they are behind average pace, the mountains around here are certainly due for some make-up snowfall though, so odds would argue that with their relatively low snowfall variance, they’ll run into an above average snowfall period at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patriot21 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Have a fresh dusting right now, not sure how long it has been snowing, but it is still coming down. Temperature at 7 this morning was around 2 or 3 according to my outdoor thermometer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Gyx doesn't make one very optimistic... Of course my P&C has no mention of rain at all but consistency is optional (sorry OceanSt) On Friday evening a developing area of low pressure will be moving over the Great Lakes region before moving into eastern Ontario or Quebec by Saturday morning. There remains significant disagreement in the ensemble low tracks with this system as a fair number of the ECWMF individual ensembles have two main clusters, one is located over the Great Lakes region whereas the other is further to the southeast offshore of the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England at 12Z Saturday. These two separate solutions then eventually converge with a mean low track almost directly over our area. The CMC ensembles generally are in decent agreement with the ECMWF in terms of timing but on average they are a little further east. Finally, the GEFS ensemble mean low locations are somewhere in between those of the ECMWF and CMC. The ultimate track of this system will have large implications on precipitation type for our area as a more westward track would favor mostly rain whereas an eastward track would favor more in the way of winter precipitation. Generally favored the more westward solution in this forecast package due to the location of the 500 mb trough which will be located across the center of the country on saturday morning and the 500 mb ridge over the Pacific northwest. This keeps the majority of the precipitation liquid, even across the north. In terms of total QPF from this system, the ECMWF ensemble mean by 06Z Sunday has a swath of around 1" of precipitation across central NH and ME with between 0.50-0.75" further to the north and south. The GEFS ensemble mean by this same time is in overall good agreement with again locally 1" or greater of QPF across central regions. Finally, the NBM is overall somewhere in the middle but still indicated the potential for locally up to around 1" of liquid equivalent precipitation for some locations. This amount of rain combined with dew points up to around 40F will likely melt much if not all of the remaining snow and ice that is on the ground in many locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 They are basically forecasting a warm cutter, I guess. We'll see. Another mini-Grinch storm would be a huge kick in the balls. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 hour ago, PhineasC said: They are basically forecasting a warm cutter, I guess. We'll see. Another mini-Grinch storm would be a huge kick in the balls. Agree, and I don't even have balls 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 1.5" overnight... Better than expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 10 hours ago, PhineasC said: They are basically forecasting a warm cutter, I guess. We'll see. Another mini-Grinch storm would be a huge kick in the balls. It's a bit strange though that with such a high probability of rain in the AFD there is not even a mention in the P&C. The two seem completely disconnected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
borderwx Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Two dimes and a nickel on the rink this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 12, 2021 Author Share Posted January 12, 2021 23 minutes ago, alex said: It's a bit strange though that with such a high probability of rain in the AFD there is not even a mention in the P&C. The two seem completely disconnected Alex, once you have the Bretton Woods rental market totally locked up I think you need to work part time at Gray and get the P&C software up to snuf for the Whites! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Decent burst came through about 3am. Finished with just shy of 3”. It’s a start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 14 minutes ago, alex said: It's a bit strange though that with such a high probability of rain in the AFD there is not even a mention in the P&C. The two seem completely disconnected Is that a request? I'm on long term, so I can give you all rain. It's actually surprisingly easy to keep snow in the forecast. Most of our weather type tools allow some snow up to 37 degrees. We're not ready for full automation yet, you have to be pretty intentional about what you're trying to put into the grids to make it to the P&C. The newer folks are still learning that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 The 06z GFS and v16 both show a sloppy hit here, verbatim. There is only one panel where surface temps get above freezing and 850s are good throughout. Very little margin for error, however. Hopefully this is finally a storm where that Randolph geography pays off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 8 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Is that a request? I'm on long term, so I can give you all rain. It's actually surprisingly easy to keep snow in the forecast. Most of our weather type tools allow some snow up to 37 degrees. We're not ready for full automation yet, you have to be pretty intentional about what you're trying to put into the grids to make it to the P&C. The newer folks are still learning that. For the record, I’m completely cool with all snow here. No need to mention rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Euro not terrible either. V16 is the best depiction so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 12 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Is that a request? I'm on long term, so I can give you all rain. It's actually surprisingly easy to keep snow in the forecast. Most of our weather type tools allow some snow up to 37 degrees. We're not ready for full automation yet, you have to be pretty intentional about what you're trying to put into the grids to make it to the P&C. The newer folks are still learning that. I noticed that when the local discussions in marginal events when they talk about accumulations, they generally undershoot snow totals up here. Even when they mention higher elevation totals, it’s generally a little less than we get. I think yesterday, it only mentioned up to an inch. I’m assuming that jay is so unique in its micro-climate that you are more forecasting for the general geographic area and not something so specific and unique like a ski area town. Am my completely off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 00z Ukie looks damn cold for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Just now, bwt3650 said: I noticed that when the local discussions in marginal events when they talk about accumulations, they generally undershoot snow totals up here. Even when they mention higher elevation totals, it’s generally a little less than we get. I think yesterday, it only mentioned up to an inch. I’m assuming that jay is so unique in its micro-climate that you are more forecasting for the general geographic area and not something so specific and unique like a ski area town. Am my completely off? You are covered by Burlington, right? GYX covers the Whites, not your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, PhineasC said: You are covered by Burlington, right? GYX covers the Whites, not your area. Yep, you’re right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 6 minutes ago, bwt3650 said: I noticed that when the local discussions in marginal events when they talk about accumulations, they generally undershoot snow totals up here. Even when they mention higher elevation totals, it’s generally a little less than we get. I think yesterday, it only mentioned up to an inch. I’m assuming that jay is so unique in its micro-climate that you are more forecasting for the general geographic area and not something so specific and unique like a ski area town. Am my completely off? You're mostly right. Sometimes it a broad brushed range over a larger area. But BTV does a better job than most at talking about details down to specific areas of the mountains. I'm actually trying to get better at drilling down to those finer geographical points in my discussions, but it's hard to put that kind of detail into the forecast and still have time to get it out. You could spend all day crafting a perfect forecast for Stowe, Bretton Woods, or Newfound Lake, but those are all just one grid point of thousands. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 21 minutes ago, bwt3650 said: I noticed that when the local discussions in marginal events when they talk about accumulations, they generally undershoot snow totals up here. Even when they mention higher elevation totals, it’s generally a little less than we get. I think yesterday, it only mentioned up to an inch. I’m assuming that jay is so unique in its micro-climate that you are more forecasting for the general geographic area and not something so specific and unique like a ski area town. Am my completely off? He forecasts for NH and ME. Edit: Damn it, Ninja'd! I should have read down a post or two before replying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 11 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: You're mostly right. Sometimes it a broad brushed range over a larger area. But BTV does a better job than most at talking about details down to specific areas of the mountains. I'm actually trying to get better at drilling down to those finer geographical points in my discussions, but it's hard to put that kind of detail into the forecast and still have time to get it out. You could spend all day crafting a perfect forecast for Stowe, Bretton Woods, or Newfound Lake, but those are all just one grid point of thousands. 38 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Is that a request? I'm on long term, so I can give you all rain. It's actually surprisingly easy to keep snow in the forecast. Most of our weather type tools allow some snow up to 37 degrees. We're not ready for full automation yet, you have to be pretty intentional about what you're trying to put into the grids to make it to the P&C. The newer folks are still learning that. The snowy P&C warms the heart but doesn't open glades unless it actually materializes. So if you could keep the grids as is and make sure it's in fact all snow, that'd be great! Jokes aside, it's not really meant as a criticism even though it sounds like it. I can't imagine how hard it is to capture the uncertainty and all the variables inherent to forecasting over such a long period and wide area. One day that you're bored I'd love to hear how the system actually works... It seems fascinating! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Surprising bit of snow in the pre-dawn, 1.0" of 40:1 fluff though I rounded LE up to 0.03" - covers the dusting that fell 7-8 AM after I cleared the board. If wxeyeNH's request of 1/3 of the Kuchera fantasy were to verify, I'm all done thru 1/24 as that map had me at about 3". 06z GFS dumps about 1.5" of low 40s RA over the weekend and the ever-retreating cold has moved completely beyond 384; all 16 days show AN minima, ranging from a few degrees to 20+ during the deluge. In other trivia, yesterday's mean temp was 1° BN, stopping the AN run at 21 days. (And leaving me wondering how long before the next BN.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 12, 2021 Author Share Posted January 12, 2021 28F and partly cloudy on the downslope side today. This is one of the benefits of living right on the other side of the high terrain. While it is just mostly cloudy but boring north of me I will have enough sun today to make 30F pleasant. I'm not yet looking at the models for later this week as don't want to get invested in any one outcome. Still a bit too far out for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 34 minutes ago, alex said: The snowy P&C warms the heart but doesn't open glades unless it actually materializes. So if you could keep the grids as is and make sure it's in fact all snow, that'd be great! Jokes aside, it's not really meant as a criticism even though it sounds like it. I can't imagine how hard it is to capture the uncertainty and all the variables inherent to forecasting over such a long period and wide area. One day that you're bored I'd love to hear how the system actually works... It seems fascinating! I definitely don't take it as a criticism, and actually sometimes I come here because I can't check every P&C for accuracy and consistency. I like to say we're way more akin to a graphic designer than how these guys did things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 12z GFS maintains an iffy but possibly workable look. My weenie recollection says the GFS sometimes misses CAD at this range, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 v16 takes the low off the coast, really nice look. GYX may need to temper the atmospheric river deluge language for up here. LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 2 hours ago, mreaves said: He forecasts for NH and ME. Edit: Damn it, Ninja'd! I should have read down a post or two before replying. Yeah, my bad. I didn’t realize that, but he confirmed what I suspected anyway. Just out of curiosity, is there anyone from BTV here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 minute ago, bwt3650 said: Yeah, my bad. I didn’t realize that, but he confirmed what I suspected anyway. Just out of curiosity, is there anyone from BTV here? Don't think so, unless they are lurking quietly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 minute ago, bwt3650 said: Yeah, my bad. I didn’t realize that, but he confirmed what I suspected anyway. Just out of curiosity, is there anyone from BTV here? They are too busy sharing bread 'n butter memes with J. Spin over text to post here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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