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NNE Cold Season Thread 2020-2021


wxeyeNH
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Pretty typical January day.    31/18F for me.  Seems kind of cool but just looked at Concord NH's average January temperature and it's 31/10F so in actuality today is slightly above normal in temperature.  

Some interesting possibilities upcoming but still too far away to pay attention.  

Jan house.jpg

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

The inversion pics from this morning are wild.

I love this one from a friend about how fluid the atmosphere is... flowing left to right like water moving over rocks.  Can see why the Spruce Peak base area mixes down some strong winds there on that SE side.

135496582_4584547131685_4085395647747171

Such a great picture.  I would love to have had my drone over there on a morning like this or the other day when it was snowing at the base and clear just above.  With the 4K cam it would have been very easy to see the ice crystal growth ascending and descending.

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3 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Snow tomorrow?

Wow, I guess so.  I wasn’t expecting to see things start to fire up until Tuesday, but it looks like chances begin to appear tomorrow:

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

646 PM EST Sun Jan 10 2021

.SYNOPSIS...

More active weather is expected this week with several chances of light snow showers. Temperatures mainly in the 20s and 30s will become colder this weekend behind a more substantial low pressure system likely passing to our north.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

As of 630 PM EST Sunday...The advertised mid-level clouds are beginning to filter into our forecast area. Froude numbers also remain quite low with evidence of more low-level clouds upstream. Thus, no change to the forecast. Although, looking into tomorrow for the TAFs, decided that between the upper shortwave, a jet streak to our south, and just enough moisture, that a few areas may be able to produce some light snow accumulations of a dusting to a few hundredths and swapped in light snow for flurries. Everything else remains in great shape. Have a great night!

Tomorrow night, snow showers are favored ahead of a more vigorous upper-level trough across northern Vermont. The wave looks to move through rapidly so duration of accumulating snow looks short. Snow ratios should be roughly climatological in the 12 - 13:1 range. Favorable snow growth temperatures in the precipitating cloud layer will be counteracted by fairly warm conditions below that production zone and weak upward motion. The compact forcing will also make location tricky. While northernmost Green Mountains will likely see light snow accumulations, still could see snow showers a little further south than currently indicated into Stowe and into the central Vermont region. While a very minor snowfall of up to an inch, this area has been snow starved as of late, so it will be nice to see for many.

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Even with the lack of snow and the absolute torch relative to normal so far this winter, the only redeeming value has been that temperatures have been sub-freezing enough to retain the little snow that has fallen.

It's one of those things I've always felt around here... where 4-6" looks the same as 24" in the general landscape viewpoint.  If you are looking at a wide field, as long as you can't see the corn stalks or grasses.... no matter how much snow is there it all looks about the same, a wintry scene.

Two photos still with a wintry vibe all things considered:

View from the Rec Path while walking my dog down in the valley bottom, looking due east at the Worcester Range that makes the western Stowe town line at 3,000-3,600ft.  Black circle is where second photo was taken from looking back at this area.

Jan_9_RecPath.thumb.jpg.cd23b7287388b0fd718867742d18f35a.jpg

Likewise a friend's photo from the Stowe Pinnacle (black circle on first shot) looking back westward over the town of Stowe, with Mount Mansfield and the Spine forming the western town line.  Pretty much everything seen in this shot is the town of Stowe (2nd largest town in Vermont by square miles).  But this view looks the same whether there is 4-6" of snow or 24-36" on the ground.

StowePinnacle_jan9.thumb.jpg.9476d885bbf9e342656e69ebbb133a87.jpg

 

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7 minutes ago, alex said:

I think GYX should issue a Severe Angeldusting Warning. Surprised how noticeable it is at 5/-4, usually it’s when it’s below 0

FED1E363-6AF6-45F8-8D2C-88D593F875D0.jpeg

We had some decent flakes flying again this morning under the low level cloud deck in town, dusted up the roads.  The low levels seem to have had a lot of moisture lately, especially overnight when the nocturnal inversion strengthens.  Crystals have been forming in plentiful numbers.

8F here but no diamond dust at this point. 

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16 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

We had some decent flakes flying again this morning under the low level cloud deck in town, dusted up the roads.  The low levels seem to have had a lot of moisture lately, especially overnight when the nocturnal inversion strengthens.  Crystals have been forming in plentiful numbers.

8F here but no diamond dust at this point. 

Also I’m an idiot and I always call it angel instead of diamond dust. But being northern New Hampshire, neither would surprise me 

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Near zero this morning, first BN minimum since 12/20.  Average max here for 1/11 is 26° and the forecast high is low 30s so it's probably 50/50 whether the mean can end the string of ANs at 21.  06z GFS was not impressive, <1/4" qpf in 16 days, Fri-Sat is RA and the arrival of deep cold pushed back to the 24th.  Next run will be different, one way or another.

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6 hours ago, tamarack said:

Near zero this morning, first BN minimum since 12/20.  Average max here for 1/11 is 26° and the forecast high is low 30s so it's probably 50/50 whether the mean can end the string of ANs at 21.  06z GFS was not impressive, <1/4" qpf in 16 days, Fri-Sat is RA and the arrival of deep cold pushed back to the 24th.  Next run will be different, one way or another.

And 12z was worse.  The weekend event is now a 1-1.5" snowpack swallower and the cold finally arrives, sort of, at 384 (after another cutter.)  It never happens quite that way, even with cutters.   Normal low temp at CAR in mid-January is near zero.  That 12z run has them never getting below 11°.

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