NNE Cold Season Thread 2020-2021

[PhineasC]

3-6 in the point forecasts in Coos Monday and Tuesday. Fingers crossed. 

[dendrite]

[backedgeapproaching]

1 hour ago, bwt3650 said:

Such a great educational post for someone like me trying to learn about these up-slope events.  I was literally just reading a paper about the blocked vs. unblocked events and froude numbers (all new to me).  So it looks like for the Jay/Mansfield area, we want an unblocked flow which leads to greater precip on the the eastern side?  What Froude number is best; anything over 1?  

Maybe this is what you were reading, not sure, but BTV has a nice succinct write up about it. Even non METS can sort of understand. 

https://www.weather.gov/btv/froude

 

[powderfreak]

Precip has started as snow up here at 3,000ft.

[J.Spin]

I had just come in from yard cleanup because the rain was too heavy, and I got a WWA alert from the BTV NWS, so presumably they feel we’ll hit that criteria.

[J.Spin]

4 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

I had just come in from yard cleanup because the rain was too heavy, and I got a WWA alert from the BTV NWS, so presumably they feel we’ll hit that criteria.

They've updated the alerts map, so here's the current WWA distribution:

[powderfreak]

It is dumping snow up here.  Prob 1”/hr rates.  Quick half inch down.

[J.Spin]

9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It is dumping snow up here.  Prob 1”/hr rates.  Quick half inch down.

Thanks for the updates – it looks like snow levels are still pretty high, with snow falling at the Bolton Valley Vista Peak Live Cam at ~3,150’, but no flakes visible on the Bolton Valley Main Base Live Cam at ~2,150’.

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

Thanks for the updates – it looks like snow levels are still pretty high, with snow falling at the Bolton Valley Vista Peak Live Cam at ~3,150’, but no flakes visible on the Bolton Valley Main Base Live Cam at ~2,150’.

Wet flakes are making it down to top of Mtn Triple at like 2600-2700ft.  Accumulations are 2800-2900ft and up.  I just walked it the rain line ha.  Not as much fun.

Dont know if this works, but a vid of it on Instagram: 

https://www.instagram.com/p/CHD4_t1B9-A/?igshid=elxopp9x865g

[J.Spin]

Here’s the projected accumulations map the BTV NWS has up in association with the incoming weather.  They’ve got us in the 6-8” shading down here, with 8-12” shading for the elevations.  That seems pretty consistent with the point forecast here, although the WWA highlights accumulations above elevations of 1,000’.

 

[J.Spin]

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Wet flakes are making it down to top of Mtn Triple at like 2600-2700ft.  Accumulations are 2800-2900ft and up.  I just walked it the rain line ha.  Not as much fun.

Dont know if this works, but a vid of it on Instagram: 

https://www.instagram.com/p/CHD4_t1B9-A/?igshid=elxopp9x865g

That worked great – I was able to click on it and view it easily.  Nice to see!

[Lava Rock]

Wife said it's chilly, so the stove gets lit

[jculligan]

Could not have asked for a better day in the alpine yesterday; I summited Mount Adams around 10:30am and could see clear to the Atlantic Ocean! I've been up there a bunch, but I have never seen such unlimited visibility before. It was 16 degrees with a wind averaging in the 15-20 mph, so I didn't snap too many pics as my hands got cold fast.

Definitely looks like an interesting couple of days up here. Again, I don't expect much (if anything) from the upslope event here in Jackson though I am interested in seeing how the Froude number applies here in the Whites. It continues to look like there is pretty good Windex potential tomorrow night as that second impulse swings through, so if we're finally going to whiten the ground in my location this is probably our best shot.

Pic below is from the summit of Mount Adams looking toward Mount Madison yesterday morning.

[PhineasC]

38 minutes ago, jculligan said:

Could not have asked for a better day in the alpine yesterday; I summited Mount Adams around 10:30am and could see clear to the Atlantic Ocean! I've been up there a bunch, but I have never seen such unlimited visibility before. It was 16 degrees with a wind averaging in the 15-20 mph, so I didn't snap too many pics as my hands got cold fast.

Definitely looks like an interesting couple of days up here. Again, I don't expect much (if anything) from the upslope event here in Jackson though I am interested in seeing how the Froude number applies here in the Whites. It continues to look like there is pretty good Windex potential tomorrow night as that second impulse swings through, so if we're finally going to whiten the ground in my location this is probably our best shot.

Pic below is from the summit of Mount Adams looking toward Mount Madison yesterday morning.

I thought I saw you up there when I was on my deck. LOL

[powderfreak]

The 18z HRRR looks nice.

[wxeyeNH]

The upslope will catch most of the snow but still looking at the HRRR I should get an inch or two between flurries and the system tomorrow night.  More importantly will be the temperatures tomorrow.  I may stay below freezing all day and with the wind  the windchill will be impressive for 11/2

[powderfreak]

Tomorrow morning does have a nice little period.  The 18z ECMWF from 6-10am shows temps of 32-29F in the valley with a steady light snow.

Total water after the clipper-like system tomorrow night is decent for a global model.  I do think it’s good when the global models show these type of progs... they know there’s terrain there and can often underestimate it.  Usually this is a very good look for a global model.

Jackpot right over Mansfield, Bolton and J.Spins house, lol.

[PhineasC]

38 degrees with some drizzle/mist. Nasty out there. 

[powderfreak]

15 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

38 degrees with some drizzle/mist. Nasty out there. 

Yeah it is.  Heavier precip is over the crest and it’s 37F at 1400ft.  38-41F down in the lower elevations.

[bwt3650]

Tough to tell for sure on my cam, but it looks like a spotty, slushy coating on the sidewalk leading to my front door.  Disappointing to miss the first significant event up there by a week, but I'm glad to see the snow season officially kick off.

[wxmanmitch]

Classic stratiform type upslope snowfall ongoing with fat, fluffy flakes. Still rather wet since it's 32.6° F, but the ground is white once again. Under a WWA for 4-8" through Tuesday. 

[alex]

Flipped over to mixed precip here but still 40F

[PhineasC]

Flakes taking over. Super nasty out there. 

Temp dropped fast to 35. Changeover proceeding. 

[PhineasC]

Quicker changeover than I expected. Still super wet but flakes definitely flying in the spotlights. Looks like mostly snow now. Radar shows nothing. Hope that bodes well. 

[alex]

So far, a bust with just a dusting

[STILL N OF PIKE]

VT will cash in very nicely and I’m sure the hut at 5k On Washington will do well if the winds blowing could stop and measure 

[alex]

Snowing nicely now

[powderfreak]

It is snowing nicely.  MVL ASOS dropped under 1 mile vis for the first time of the season in snow.

Radar looks great.  The office at the ski area is going to get destroyed, lol.

[powderfreak]

[powderfreak]

Grass almost gone at home, blowing and drifting too.  This is some surprisingly dry snow it seems.  Be curious to get JSpin’s water analysis later today when the first round shuts off.