NNE Cold Season Thread 2020-2021

[MarkO]

Nice dendrites, super dry and slick on the roads. 24.8F

[powderfreak]

Pretty sure we picked up 1" of fluff in about 30 minutes while out on the evening dog walk in Stowe Village on the groomed Rec Path. 

This is what people remember when the spend the night in a ski town and 40-50% chance of snow turns into a nice period of moderate snow.

 

Weakening on radar but also slowing over the area.  Hopefully we can deform for a bit.

 

[#NoPoles]

So this may not be a great pattern for any kind of significant snow amounts....but I sure am glad we are not freezing our azzes off! 

[PhineasC]

Little fluff dusting here. It was more than enough to fully cover the cleared driveway.

[PhineasC]

18 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

So this may not be a great pattern for any kind of significant snow amounts....but I sure am glad we are not freezing our azzes off! 

And no rainy super cutters on the horizon, thank goodness.

[qg_omega]

27 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

So this may not be a great pattern for any kind of significant snow amounts....but I sure am glad we are not freezing our azzes off! 

I’ll take the cold, we need to freeze up the lakes and ground

 

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 2.2” Snow/0.18” L.E.

 

Details from the 10:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 2.2 inches

New Liquid: 0.18 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 12.2

Snow Density: 8.2% H2O

Temperature: 28.6 F

Sky: Light Snow (1-6 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 8.5 inches

[J.Spin]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Pretty sure we picked up 1" of fluff in about 30 minutes while out on the evening dog walk in Stowe Village on the groomed Rec Path. 

This is what people remember when the spend the night in a ski town and 40-50% chance of snow turns into a nice period of moderate snow.

Weakening on radar but also slowing over the area.  Hopefully we can deform for a bit.

This was a nice addition to the recent snow with 0.18” of liquid equivalent here through 10:00 P.M., and we know every bit helps out with improving the base.  We’ve had a bit more snow since those observations, but it’s tapered off now.  We’ll see if anything else flares up tonight.

It does look like a surprisingly quiet week for snow around here, with no obvious bread and butter systems in the northern stream.  After this system, there are some slight chances during the first part of the week, and I guess we’ll just have to see what else might develop.  As NoPoles mentioned, this is a much nicer way to potentially have a quiet week vs. it being due to one of those presses of frigid arctic air that we sometimes get in January.

[J.Spin]

With the influx of snow that the area has seen from Winter Storm John, the snow conditions improved dramatically this weekend.  Based on the liquid equivalent we picked up here at the house, I bet the local mountains picked up something in the range of ¾” of liquid, which is a game-changer relative to where things were before.

The conditions had improved enough that I headed up to Bolton for multiple sessions this weekend, so I can pass along some snow updates and images.

On Saturday morning I decided to go for my first lift-served turns of the season – only the main mountain is open at this point, since coverage is still too thin down at the lower elevations of Timberline.  It was snowing steadily with some big flakes when I arrived at the mountain, and I found about 4 to 5 inches of new accumulation in the Village areas at 2,000’.  The snowfall tapered off to light snow during the midmorning period, but really picked up to some heavy inch/hr snowfall when I was leaving a bit before noon.  That was when the back side of the storm was coming through, and the wind jumped up a bit there, but prior to that the weather was fantastic with temperatures just a bit below freezing and no wind.  There was obviously some surface snow in place from previous systems because I was generally finding powder depths of 6-9” at the 2,400’ level.  Skiing was good, with enough snow to resurface low to moderate angle slopes, and listening to skiers and riders on that terrain you’d hear absolutely nothing.  On higher angle slopes you could still hear contact with the old base snow, so it was obvious that ¾” of liquid can only do so much with holiday levels of skier traffic.

With the way it had been dumping inch/hr snowfall when I headed home around noontime, I decided it would be worth another session in the afternoon.  This time I went for a tour on Wilderness, which had its uphill route officially reopened as of Saturday thanks to the accumulations from Winter Storm John.  There had been additional snow, and I’d say 6-10” of powder above the base snow would represent a good summary of what I found overall in the 2,000’ to 3,000’ elevation range, which was a combination of the snow from this storm on top of the accumulations from previous events.  With Bolton having access to the entire Wilderness Lift area of moderate-angle, cut trails all starting above 2,000’, I’m sure a lot of folks see it as a very good option with the rather thin base currently in place at lower elevations.  That, and the fact that it was a holiday weekend, meant that there was a lot of uphill traffic.  Fortunately, there was still decent access to untracked powder along the edges of trails, and the turns were quite good and bottomless on low and moderate-angle terrain with the recent snow we’ve picked up.

Today I headed back up for a tour with my younger son, and we went a bit farther afield in the Wilderness area in search of untracked powder.  It was definitely harder to come by this afternoon, because there has been heavy ski touring traffic this weekend.  The amount of traffic is relative of course, and nothing like you’d get with lift-served skiing, but after an entire holiday weekend worth of people touring, the untracked snow on the trails had been just about picked clean.  One factor in the traffic is that folks aren’t yet using all the acreage of tree skiing; the trees were generally untouched because people know that it’s still just a bit too thin in there for the skiing to be practical.  If we get one more good snowstorm with an inch of liquid, then the low-angle trees will be in play.

A few images from the weekend:

[mreaves]

2.5" with occasional flakes drifting down 25.7°/24.0° 

Edit: Actual light snow now

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 2.5” Snow/0.19” L.E.

 

Since it was Monday, I also cored the snowpack at observations time this morning and found 0.84” of liquid.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.3 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 30.0

Snow Density: 3.3% H2O

Temperature: 28.4 F

Sky: Flurries

Snow at the stake: 9.0 inches

[alex]

0.4 overnight with a few flakes falling. Now let the drought begin

[Lava Rock]

Trying to figure out how 3" snow otg is going to last at least 2 wks

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

[tamarack]

Another cloudy flakeless day upcoming, maybe 3.  Following the December trend; last month had 21 days I recorded as cloudy, 3 more than in any other month here.  Would like some cold - no safe ice for drilling holes yet which is very odd for early January in central Maine.  Jan minima running 12-14° AN.

[powderfreak]

1.5" was the total at home this morning from last night's burst when I measured at 7am.

See some pretty decent totals in spots... a couple 3-4" range in the Upper CT Valley west of Alex and then 3-5" in Rutland County.

[klw]

2.7 inches for round 2.  7 inches for the weekend.  Nice way to start a base.

[mreaves]

2 hours ago, klw said:

2.7 inches for round 2.  7 inches for the weekend.  Nice way to start a base.

Looking through the PNS reports, the observer near me had 5.3 for round one and 2.7 for this morning.  An 8 spot for the weekend.  I'd be pretty happy if I could get that much every three days or so.

[backedgeapproaching]

1.5"  Now my 18th event of 1.6" of less this year not including traces  

Almost seems impossible to get nearly 20 measurable events and nothing over 1.6" (outside of the mid DEC bomb)

[backedgeapproaching]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

1.5" was the total at home this morning from last night's burst when I measured at 7am.

See some pretty decent totals in spots... a couple 3-4" range in the Upper CT Valley west of Alex and then 3-5" in Rutland County.

Rutland County has definitely had a few more events than my area this year--just some atmospheric luck I guess.  Normally I'm 20-30 inches more than most of the Rutland County Cocorahs stations at the end of the season the past 5-6 years.  I'm sure a few of them are higher than me now.

[wxeyeNH]

1" last night.     34.5" on the season.   3" to 4" OTG

[J.Spin]

December Totals

Accumulating Storms:  11

Snowfall:  23.4”

Liquid Equivalent: 4.69”

SDD:  54.0

 

Calendar Year Liquid: 50.64”

 

I’ve had a chance to put together the December snow numbers for our site, and some notes about them are below:

·         Snowfall was definitely on the lean side for December this season.  It’s interesting to note that we picked up the same amount of snow in December as we did in November, which speaks to a solid November and a poor December.  This December’s snowfall was actually the third lowest in my 15 seasons worth of records; only 2006-2007 and 2015-2016 were lower.

·         Also of note is that SDD were quite low at 54.0 inch-days, whereas the mean is 180.8 inch-days.

[J.Spin]

On 1/2/2021 at 11:53 AM, PhineasC said:

Randolph should be around 48" after this storm (we will see exactly how much the CoCoRaHS guy measures). 

The normal (in the 11 year record) through this time is about 55", but there are some anomalous numbers in the record (like November 2018) that skew the mean with the small data set. Either way, not too far off average so far. 

I’d been meaning to check on where we are at our site, and had a chance to look at the numbers today.

Snowfall:  The combination of a strong November and weak December came together to really keep us right around average on cumulative seasonal snowfall over the past couple of weeks.  We’re just slightly ahead of average pace as of today with 55.7” on the season, vs. a 54.6” average to this date.  This season will presumably fall off the average pace a bit if this week is slow with respect to snowfall; we need 1-2”/day this time of year to stay up with the mean.

Snowpack depth:  Today’s snowpack depth at our stake is 9.0”, which is actually quite close to the mean of 9.7” for this date.

SDD:  Current snowfall for the season and current snowpack depth suggest that things are pretty typical, and indeed they are in those respects, but SDD incorporates a bit more of the season’s history with respect to snow preservation.  SDD to date at our site is 106.5 inch-days, which is less than half the 243.5 inch-days average for this date.

So, while snowfall and current snowpack depth are typical, it’s definitely been a below average season in terms of snow preservation thus far.

[MRVexpat]

Was in Phin/Alex's hood this past weekend for an AIARE 1 course on Washington. Thank God the snow on 1/2 delivered! Would have been a bit miserable otherwise. 

[jculligan]

0.3" last night brings us up to an even 22.0" on the season so far. The current snow depth is 4-5 inches.

I don't know of any reliable climo data for Jackson in particular, but the COOP in North Conway averages 20.2" through January 1st. I think I average about 1.5 times the amount of snow that falls in North Conway (120" seasonal total versus 80" in the valley) so I would presume we should be closer to 30" on the season at this point in my location. All things considered...we aren't that far off.

I think where we are really struggling is in the snowpack department. I'm pretty certain there should be more than 4-5" OTG at 1500' in the eastern Whites on January 4th, but the December thaws really prevented us from making much progress. The maximum depth I've observed all season was 8" following the 12/17 event.

[PhineasC]

Whole lot of nothing on the models through mid-month at least. No bread or butter to be found anywhere.

 

[wxmanmitch]

My 2020 weather stats:

Total precipitation: 58.32" 

Total Snowfall: 131.0"

Average Temperature: 43.6° F

Lowest Temperature: -7.9° F on 2/15

Highest Temperature: 84.8° F on 7/19

I'm amazed at how high my precipitation total is given that Bennington just over the hill about 12 miles away had only 36.94" and Pittsfield, MA about 30 miles to my SSW had 37.41". This total is from a Stratus rain gauge and not from my Davis VP2 tipping bucket gauge.

 

[Ginx snewx]

6 hours ago, wxmanmitch said:

My 2020 weather stats:

Total precipitation: 58.32" 

Total Snowfall: 131.0"

Average Temperature: 43.6° F

Lowest Temperature: -7.9° F on 2/15

Highest Temperature: 84.8° F on 7/19

I'm amazed at how high my precipitation total is given that Bennington just over the hill about 12 miles away had only 36.94" and Pittsfield, MA about 30 miles to my SSW had 37.41". This total is from a Stratus rain gauge and not from my Davis VP2 tipping bucket gauge.

 

Nice Mitch 

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 2.9” Snow/0.22” L.E.

 

We picked up another 0.4” of snow overnight, which was somewhat unexpected, but the forecasts/discussions did indicate the chances for this type of snow during the first part of this week.  The current BTV NWS discussion suggests that this precipitation is still related to the same storm we’ve been dealing with for the past couple of days, which is now south of Nova Scotia, and the radar (below) clearly shows that moisture coming from the east, so I’m rolling these numbers in with the current system.

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

635 AM EST Tue Jan 5 2021

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

As of 635 AM EST Tuesday...Mainly uneventful weather expected over the next 42 hours despite plenty of clouds. Upper level trough extending west- northwest from offshore low pressure south of Yarmouth, NS continues to pull some mid-level moisture westward back into northern New England/nrn NY this morning and expect this trend to continue into tonight. Therefore, will continue with slight to lower chances of flurries/light snow shower activity across mainly northern counties during this period as forcing will remain weak.

By Wednesday the offshore low and aforementioned upper trough begin to pull east fostering a slight uptick in the low level pressure gradient and northwesterly surface winds. This may allow some partial clearing in the Champlain and CT River Valleys toward afternoon. Temperatures to remain slightly above seasonal norms in the upper 20s to mid-30s.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.4 inches

New Liquid: 0.03 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 13.3

Snow Density: 7.5% H2O

Temperature: 30.0 F

Sky: Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 7.5 inches

[tamarack]

9 hours ago, wxmanmitch said:

My 2020 weather stats:

Total precipitation: 58.32" 

Total Snowfall: 131.0"

Average Temperature: 43.6° F

Lowest Temperature: -7.9° F on 2/15

Highest Temperature: 84.8° F on 7/19

I'm amazed at how high my precipitation total is given that Bennington just over the hill about 12 miles away had only 36.94" and Pittsfield, MA about 30 miles to my SSW had 37.41". This total is from a Stratus rain gauge and not from my Davis VP2 tipping bucket gauge.

 

No surprise you're a lot wetter than Burlington, given its downslope site and your elevation.  The difference with Pittsfield seems more anomalous.

Is that 131" for calendar 2020 or winter 19-20?  My 2019-20 was 85.1" but calendar 2020 only 72.1".

[PhineasC]

Flurries here now, 26 degrees.