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NNE Cold Season Thread 2020-2021


wxeyeNH
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4 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

I always start my night with 2 benadryl...I debated taking more, but I may not get up for work, so I crossed my fingers that doubling the amount of everything else I take would work...fail...very fitting way to spend my final day of 2020...feeling like death

Benadryl makes you hyper Di

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1 hour ago, #NoPoles said:

Ugh, I hate insomnia...2hrs of sleep, and I've been wide awake since 130am. I tried taking an extra dose of my melatonin and my CBD with camomile and tryptophan, no joy...

Idk if you drink coffee...obvi avoid caffeine in PM hours. Maybe supplement some magnesium? It’s easy to be deficient in it and it’s vital to our body.

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Event totals: 0.1” Snow/0.01” L.E.

 

We had some standard flakes yesterday afternoon and last night, and I’ve seen graupel falling today, but a tenth of an inch is all I’ve observed for accumulation from this event (which appears to be the remnants of Winter Storm Ivy merging with a clipper to our north) thus far at our site.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.1 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0

Snow Density: 10.0% H2O

Temperature: 36.1 F

Sky: Light Snow/Graupel

Snow at the stake: 1.0 inches

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3 hours ago, #NoPoles said:

Ugh, I hate insomnia...2hrs of sleep, and I've been wide awake since 130am. I tried taking an extra dose of my melatonin and my CBD with camomile and tryptophan, no joy...

You ever try low dose THC? Like 2-5mg Gummies/edibles. They have helped me immensely get better sleep. Not for everyone obviously, just an idea.

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Skiing was actually really fun today; fast, slick but not at all icy. Long lines at the lifts though... makes the Bretton Woods Club worth every penny! @PhineasC if you ski BW a lot you should definitely consider it. 

Too bad that the natural base is so bad. Next week would have been a great ski week otherwise - fresh snow, and perfect temperatures... Hopefully we get enough to open some more natural trails and glades up. 

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3 minutes ago, alex said:

Skiing was actually really fun today; fast, slick but not at all icy. Long lines at the lifts though... makes the Bretton Woods Club worth every penny! @PhineasC if you ski BW a lot you should definitely consider it. 

Too bad that the natural base is so bad. Next week would have been a great ski week otherwise - fresh snow, and perfect temperatures... Hopefully we get enough to open some more natural trails and glades up. 

Yes, we plan to look into the BWC. I mentioned the same to the wife yesterday while standing in a lift line! So far been very happy with how BW is handling the COVID deal. Workable blend of caution and practicality. 

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10 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Yes, we plan to look into the BWC. I mentioned the same to the wife yesterday while standing in a lift line! So far been very happy with how BW is handling the COVID deal. Workable blend of caution and practicality. 

I agree. Lots of people but it doesn't feel unsafe at all; of course, I never go into the lodge except for the Club (the "bubble") and the new one at top. But even up there the tables are spaced well, I don't see much of an issue. 

BWC is totally worth it if you can fit it in your budget. I love being able to store my stuff there - and the boots are nice and toasty when you get in them, and while I didn't care of skipping lines before having kids since we always just skied midweek, now with kids it makes a huge difference. They do have a bit of a waiting lists - friends of ours had to wait about a year, but it probably is different now. 

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Happy New Year to all NNEnglanders...     Lets hope 2021 is a better year!!!

As we wait for the next storm I thought I would post another drone flight that I made today. (Follow-up to my last one).  Since the Old Man of the Mountain came down I have seen posts and video's of "The Watcher".   It can only be seen from the cliff edge looking back down toward Franconia Notch.  It is a arduous long bushwhacking hike that takes many hours to get up to the look out point.  Last month I tried to fly the drone up to her but ended up videoing the wrong cliff.  So I made another attempt today.  You really cant' see her profile as I would have to get to about 15 feet of the trees and look back.  I got pretty darn close thought  but navigating a $1200 drone from a smartphone screen a mile away and 1500 feet below is quite the task.  If anyone is interested here is a picture of her taken by  some hikers and my video.  Some of the cliffs are incredible in the notch. 

 

TW.jpg

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Event totals: 0.2” Snow/0.01” L.E.

 

 

We’ve had flurries/light snow on and off all day, but just an additional 10th of an inch of accumulation through noontime with some of the graupel.  I haven’t seen anything accumulate this afternoon with the temperatures a few degrees above freezing – it’s been fluffy flakes that melt fairly easily relative to the graupel.

 

 

Details from the 12:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.1 inches

New Liquid: Trace

Temperature: 36.5 F

Sky: Light Snow (1-2 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 1.0 inches

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I got a text this afternoon indicating that we’ve been put under a Winter Weather Advisory for this upcoming system, which is substantial enough to have earned the name Winter Storm John.  The BTV NWS advisories map is pretty straightforward with wall-to-wall Winter Weather Advisories throughout the north country.  Our point forecast here calls for 4-8” of snow with the potential for some sleet mixed in on Saturday.  The projected accumulations map looks like it’s on the lower end of that with broad areas in the 3-4” and 4-6” ranges, but the products often get synced up better as the storm gets closer.

31DEC20A.jpg

31DEC20B.jpg

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

That’s where I’m at... I think it’s a widespread 3-7” for NNE but someone could deform their way to 8-9” though it may be like Northern NY and southern Quebec.

I also think snow growth will be real shitty, we could also go to sleet if the mid level warm tongue punches further north as these system have been known to do.  I think it could be like 7:1 ratios for a lot of us in the means.  Sort of like 3-5” of dense white material on 0.50-0.75” water.

Well, the great news is that in whatever frozen form it falls, 0.50-0.75” of L.E. would be huge for base building on natural terrain.  As long as it’s topped off with a bit of lower density stuff, low-angle terrain would immediately be back in action.

Checking on BTV NWS point forecasts, I see projected L.E. of 0.69” here at our site, 0.83” for Bolton, and 0.89” for Mansfield at elevation.

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The latest BTV NWS maps for the upcoming storm are below.  The notable change in the advisories map is the Winter Storm Warning area in NNH, and on the projected accumulations map they’ve refined it to show some areas in the 6-8” shading.  The point forecast here is roughly 3-7” through Saturday, which is right in line with what the map shows.

01JAN21A.jpg

01JAN21B.jpg

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Happy New Year - one than can't (can it?) be worse than 2020.

December 2020:
Avg high:  32.9  +2.3 max 56 on the 1st
Avg low: 19.3    +6.2 min -5 on the 19th
Mean:  26.1   +4.3
The low of 44 on the 1st is my highest minimum in December. 
2nd place is the 43 on Christmas.  The 54/43 on the 25th was +28.8, highest AN for any day since moving here in May 1998.  (now 2nd:  27.8 on 3/22/2012)

Precip:  5.85"  1.36" AN   Biggest day:  2.54" on the 25th, my greatest one-day precip in December.  Yay Grinch!  :fulltilt:

Snowfall:  9.2"  9.8" BN.  Largest event was 6.0 of 4:1 stuff on 5-6.  OND snow total of 11.3" is 47% of average.


2020 - the year:
Avg temp: 42.9  +1.35.  Hottest: 90 on 6/20.  Coldest:  -28 on 2/15

Precip:  46.54"  -2.66"  Wettest month was Dec and day, 12/25.  Driest was September, 1.29" with 1.14" coming on the 30th. 
                                        The 6 weeks 5/17-6/27 had only 0.65".  The 17 days 6/28-7/14 had 8.33".  feast or famine

Snowfall (Calendar year):  72.1", lowest since 2010. 
Biggest storm:  10.3" on 3/23/24   Tallest pack: 21" on 2/19.  (Avg tallest is 30"; median 27")  

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This afternoon’s update from the BTV NWS should be the last one before the onset of the current system moving into the area.  There have been some changes in both the advisories map and the projected accumulations map, with the BTV NWS AFD noting a couple of related forecast changes.  The first is regarding a slightly earlier onset time for snow, and the second deals with snow totals, as discussed below:

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

416 PM EST Fri Jan 1 2021

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

As of 410 PM EST Friday...The second change in the forecast concerns snow totals, mainly along the Canadian border and across the Northeast Kingdom. Snow totals are now expected in the 4 to 8-inch range across this area, the bulk of which will fall between 7 AM and 1 PM on Saturday. Localized accumulations up to 10 inches are possible across the northern Green Mountains. During this time, a band of heavier snow is possible, producing rates up to 1 inch/hour for a brief period of time. This is attributed to enhanced meteorological forcing paired with higher snow ratios as colder, drier air pushes in from the northwest. By late Saturday afternoon, all precipitation will transition to either snow or rain before coming to an end Saturday evening.

Changes in their advisories maps show some Winter Storm Warnings moving into Northern Vermont, and some areas of 8-12” shading in the Northern Greens and Northeast Kingdom.  Our point forecast here got a bump to roughly the 6-10” range, and I see some 6-12” forecast numbers for the higher elevations along the spine.

01JAN21C.jpg

01JAN21D.jpg

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