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NNE Cold Season Thread 2020-2021


wxeyeNH
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58 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

This wed/thu deal before the main storm is looking pretty damn potent on the mesos. 

Yeah, the 3k is really starting to light it up weds night with what looks like some serious upslope after the initial burst comes through.  Looks like maybe somehow we could squeeze out a 6 plus deal.  

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Radar never really shows Jay in the low level precip as the beam overshoots it, but I bet you’re doing well in this regime.

We actually have some sun coming out down south here now after some good pulses of snow.

I noticed radar is really bad up here.  I’ve been using the 400 zoom and just kind of following the pulse near Richford to see what’s coming but it’s a lot easier to see what’s going on toward Mansfield.  I’m guessing the weather underground out of Burlington is the best radar for around here.

 

tnrw night into weds looking kinda decent for our area down to Jspin.  

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44 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

I noticed radar is really bad up here.  I’ve been using the 400 zoom and just kind of following the pulse near Richford to see what’s coming but it’s a lot easier to see what’s going on toward Mansfield.  I’m guessing the weather underground out of Burlington is the best radar for around here.

 

tnrw night into weds looking kinda decent for our area down to Jspin.  

The wunderground radar that shows on my PWS actually seems to be the best around here too... NWS' is unusable for upslope

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3 hours ago, bwt3650 said:

I noticed radar is really bad up here.  I’ve been using the 400 zoom and just kind of following the pulse near Richford to see what’s coming but it’s a lot easier to see what’s going on toward Mansfield.  I’m guessing the weather underground out of Burlington is the best radar for around here.

Yeah the beam is just too high in that area... because we can't use the 1st tilt as it's blocked by terrain and need to go up to higher degree scans.  Composite works best up in your areas but still overshoots the upslope usually.  I generally do what you do and you can infer what's happening based on the signature further south towards Mansfield.  If echos are building in the northern Champlain Valley and adjacent western slope areas up there in Richford, you can be sure it's also lighting up over the Jay area.

I've never really looked but it just occurred to me you might get better coverage out of the Canadian radar sites.  I'd assume there's one in Montreal or near there.  Ground is really flat around there so it might get a decent sample around Jay.  The big limiting factor is higher terrain near the radar sites (ie BTV).  Like GYX out of Gray, ME actually samples Phin at the same elevation overhead as BTV does here, despite me being only being like 20 miles from the radar site and Phin 60 miles from the GYX site.  Both of us get sampled at around 5-6k feet elevation.

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Down to 6F at 9pm at the ASOS near here, the snow cover certainly helps, even if only 2-3” of now crusty snow... no grass blades exposed certainly helps wring the cold out.

The top of the ski area is 3F, with a stiff breeze.  44G48 wind speed for a wind chill of -26F right now at the top of the chairlifts, ha.

This afternoon and evening is the first time in a long while it’s felt legitimately winter cold.

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Down to 6F at 9pm at the ASOS near here, the snow cover certainly helps, even if only 2-3” of now crusty snow... no grass blades exposed certainly helps wring the cold out.

The top of the ski area is 3F, with a stiff breeze.  44G48 wind speed for a wind chill of -26F right now at the top of the chairlifts, ha.

This afternoon and evening is the first time in a long while it’s felt legitimately winter cold.

Wind is ripping pretty good here, gusts to 30. 12 degrees.

Calm and 3 degrees at Alex's spot. LOL

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11 hours ago, alex said:

The wind is another fascinating microclimate thing in the mountains. It always does its own thing!

wind in the mountains is very interesting. I've been on top of mount washington in near gale force winds and dropped a few hundred vertical feet and suddenly eerily calm. Same thing happened on Franconia Ridge this weekend - certainly windy above greenleaf hut but last couple of hundred vertical feet was way, way more intense - same exposure, aspect, et cetera.

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58 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

The Monday storm is also coming into focus, starting to look pretty good for parts of NNE with some snow from the coastal. Could be a great three event sequence starting this evening.

Nam and rgem look to keep things real wintery over the next several days.  Starting today up here, Friday looks like the only day without significant snow in the air through Sunday.  The upslope signal looks good too and the weekend looks like it might stay all snow.  Maybe this is what finally gets us started.  Big chances from where this looked like it was headed Monday.

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Flakes started appearing here in Waterbury around 1:30 P.M. ahead of this next system, but it looks like these are just some early forerunner flakes associated with the warm front that shouldn’t amount to much.  The next round of snow comes in this evening, with our point forecast calling for about an inch of accumulation through tomorrow.

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42 minutes ago, MRVexpat said:

radar showing solid echoes but checking on the cams, it seems as though only minor precip is happening throughout the region thus far.


WUNIDS_map?num=1&type=NCR&mapx=400&mapy=240&brand=wui&delay=15&frame=0&scale=0.5&transx=0&transy=0&severe=0&smooth=0&centerx=400&centery=240&station=CXX&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&noclutter=0&showlabels=1&showstorms=0&rand=26822529

Yeah, I saw that relatively strong radar signal as well – it looks like it’s the warm front, but there’s a lot of dry air for the precipitation to overcome.  There should be more notable snow starting this evening though:

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

1252 PM EST Wed Dec 30 2020

 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

As of 954 AM EST Wednesday...Some light snow spreading over the area as a warm front moves through. This will be very short- lived with a clear back edge to the snow and minimal daytime accumulations expected. Otherwise, forecast still on track for increasing gusty winds today and more widespread precip this evening into overnight tonight.

 

Previous Discussion...

Satellite imagery shows increasing mid and high level clouds moving into the region. There is some snow back across western New York, but feel this may not hold together and move into our region as plenty of dry air remains in place.  The better chances will come late in the day and especially tonight as cold front gradually moves toward the region.

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12 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

Starting to come down heavier now...might be some pellets mixed in so doesn’t seem like ratios will be great.  radar lighting up.  3k has close to a foot up here, but 6-8 sounds reasonable.  It would make for a decent morning.

 

 

AFD45B10-22FC-4F0F-AA2D-0B06ADA61866.jpeg

Yeah we are currently in the deep southwest flow sink hole downwind of the Adirondacks.  The Greens get the air lifting around here but not until you are into the NEK does it really start falling.  We see this from time to time when the mid-level SW flow is pretty unblocked.... the standing wave downslope consumes Sugarbush/Bolton/Stowe/Smuggs stretch.  Of course there are other times when the SW flow and the right inversion height blocks the flow and crushes us.  But the models have been pretty steady on a largely unblocked flow depositing precipitation well downwind into the NEK.

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