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NNE Cold Season Thread 2020-2021


wxeyeNH
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On 12/25/2020 at 2:58 PM, powderfreak said:

It's really hard to go 16 days of model fantasy in mid-winter and actually have a part of NNE where there is literally not even a tenth of snow printed over a two week period.  And 1-6" max in most of the mountains during a 16-day period too.

gfs-deterministic-neng-total_snow_10to1-0280000.thumb.png.31bbfb3b5889e86d060e2349a35359f2.png

I know we’re still a full two weeks out from when legitimate verification can be assessed on those projected snowfall numbers, but I honestly expect sites like Mansfield, and even your house, to surpass what the map shows for them.

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13 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

I know we’re still a full two weeks out from when legitimate verification can be assessed on those projected snowfall numbers, but I honestly expect sites like Mansfield, and even your house, to surpass what the map shows for them.

Ha we already have I feel like.  Did it with a lot less liquid!

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Ha we already have I feel like.  Did it with a lot less liquid!

Exactly; the fact that we’ve already surpassed those snowfall numbers just two days into the forecast period really makes it “iron clad” (as they say), and very hard to argue against exceeding the projection.  Sure, snowpack can decrease, but it’s rare to see snowfall numbers decrease once they’re recorded.  Yeah, it’s sticking one’s neck out to guarantee that we’re going to exceed those projections with two weeks to go, but sometimes you have to take big risks and ride out your calls.

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36 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Not them but I have been telling them in the NNE thread to watch Mon Tues

We’re definitely watching Ginx – after this current event, that’s the next one in the bread and butter lineup.  The BTV NWS isn’t concerned about it too much around here at this point, but we’ll see what happens as it gets closer:

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

922 AM EST Sun Dec 27 2020

 

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

As of 922 AM EST Sunday...Southerly flow will increase overnight tonight into Monday ahead our next approaching system. Gusty southerly flow is expected especially in the Champlain Valley with sustained winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts upwards of 30 mph likely, locally higher over the broad lake. Main surface low pressure will pass west of the area and pull off northward into southern Quebec. Temperatures warm tonight into Monday therefore thermal profiles will be supportive mainly of mountain snow and valley rain. Most favored area for steady precipitation will be across western New York with scattered precipitation across Vermont. QPF amounts will generally be a few hundreths to around 0.10" across NY and between a trace and a few hundreths for VT. Snow amounts will generally be confined to a dusting to up to 1" for the Adirondacks.

Bread&Butter.jpg

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Quiet weather day with a few flurries this morning.  Bit of light snow tomorrow and then perhaps a complicated storm for late week.

Phin....take note of the light snow you just had after the cutter.  Alex, you and the Vermont gang just about always will end up white again, even after warm storms.  So the snowy appeal will last for you all winter.  Meanwhile the NW flow does nothing for Central NH  and the Maine gang as we have to wait for synoptic weather events.

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6 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Quiet weather day with a few flurries this morning.  Bit of light snow tomorrow and then perhaps a complicated storm for late week.

Phin....take note of the light snow you just had after the cutter.  Alex, you and the Vermont gang just about always will end up white again, even after warm storms.  So the snowy appeal will last for you all winter.  Meanwhile the NW flow does nothing for Central NH  and the Maine gang as we have to wait for synoptic weather events.

Yup, it’s been great here today, even if it was just the leftovers after J Spin and PF vacuumed most of it up. :)  The ground is covered again and things are mostly frozen up again. Can’t ask for more right now. Hopefully New Years stays frozen. 

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1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

Yup, it’s been great here today, even if it was just the leftovers after J Spin and PF vacuumed most of it up. :)  The ground is covered again and things are mostly frozen up again. Can’t ask for more right now. Hopefully New Years stays frozen. 

Agree. It's a very appealing thing of this area; bare ground in the winter is VERY rare! And even if today's snow was barely measurable (West is not best for us), it still goes a long way to make it feel like winter

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Yup, it’s been great here today, even if it was just the leftovers after J Spin and PF vacuumed most of it up.   The ground is covered again and things are mostly frozen up again. Can’t ask for more right now. Hopefully New Years stays frozen. 
Your in better spirits I see

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

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A lot of times our icing setups trend toward more sleet or just more rain. If we’re getting enough CAD to maintain the ZR, usually it finds a way to be deep enough or cold enough to freeze back to IP. 2008 was pretty bad, but obviously the epicenter was further south...we had a pretty big mixed bag here. 1998 was a mess too, but we warmed up enough at times to 32-34 to minimize the damage and the epicenter was further north into Quebec. We’ve had plenty of moderate icing events though.

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12 minutes ago, dendrite said:

. 1998 was a mess too, but we warmed up enough at times to 32-34 to minimize the damage and the epicenter was further north into Quebec. We’ve had plenty of moderate icing events though.

The 1998 ice storm was a disaster in our town.  So much tree damage down here.  I had the house up here but it was just a weekend fixer upper.  When I drove up from Boston after the storm I couldn't believe the damage.  ice events are the worst.  First 6 hours without power is okay but when there are widespread events it takes so long to get power back if you don't live on a main line.   My dirt road is not a priority.  

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1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said:

The 1998 ice storm was a disaster in our town.  So much tree damage down here.  I had the house up here but it was just a weekend fixer upper.  When I drove up from Boston after the storm I couldn't believe the damage.  ice events are the worst.  First 6 hours without power is okay but when there are widespread events it takes so long to get power back if you don't live on a main line.   My dirt road is not a priority.  

Yeah I think your elevation made it a lot worse. 32-33° down lower is like 30-31° for you.

I had to go pick up my broken down car in Lyndonville during it. I remember driving up with my dad and seeing the drooping trees in the Lakes Region. Then we got up to the notch and it wasn’t too bad at all. Then it picked up again in St. J. 

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Event totals: 5.9” Snow/0.19” L.E.

 

The snow finally tapered off this afternoon and we even saw a little sun, so it looks like this event is over at our site and the above totals will be the final snow and liquid numbers.

 

Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.2 inches

New Liquid: Trace

Temperature: 25.5 F

Sky: Mostly Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 3.5 inches

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Just melted the recent snowfall that fell in the larger Stratus cylinder... found 0.23" water and measured 4.75" cumulative (20.7 to 1 ratio).  4.25" board clearing last evening and then between last night and today another 0.5".  Our garden has a couple tables in it, so I use one to clear and one to leave alone, and the one left alone has 3.5" on it... so has settled about an inch in the past 24 hours. 

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25 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Um there is this reason you average 150 and us under 65. Lol you are new here but we know our place and definitely know swfe climo.

Interestingly, aside from all the jist , I think SNErs still root for snow for us more often than not. I remember when I lived in Mass, knowing that there was snow up North was always comforting in a way even when there was no snow in my back yard. Being a skier of course has a lot to do with that as well. 

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