NNE Cold Season Thread 2020-2021

[J.Spin]

22 hours ago, Lava Rock said:

Has Jay really received 67" on the season? That's what their reporting. Gusts to 95mph tomorrow. Overstated?

 

19 hours ago, PhineasC said:

I didn’t realize that’s the measurement at the summit. Makes more sense in that case, I suppose. 

 

16 hours ago, bwt3650 said:

I bet it’s close, but very deceiving.  I haven’t been up there non-stop since November, but from when I have, I’ve seen probably 30-40 of that and I’m at about 1850’.  There was an early November storm that was over a foot and probably 10” this Tuesday.  Thanksgiving week we nickel and dimed about another 10” too and I know I missed at least one double digit upslope.  So at the summit, it may be a bit of a jay measuring number, but i bet it’s close.  The real issue is that there has been no real lasting pack.  Thanksgiving week washed away that Thursday, many of the early events only lasted a few days and this week’s is clearly gone.  The numbers were pretty average until about the last ten days, but the “pack” was way down.

There’s only so much correlation between snowfall and snowpack unless you’re taking about high-elevation spots in the Rockies, Sierra, etc. that don’t see any substantial melting/snowpack loss throughout a typical season.  That correlation gets a bit better here as we move farther into the season and you get snowpack down that is just too thick and dense to melt with an occasional warm sector storm, but we’re still too early to be there.

Although that 67” snowfall number for the season thus far at Jay Peak is decent, it’s likely a bit behind average pace, and the same would go for that Mansfield/Stowe 55” number.  The Northern Greens from Bolton Valley through Jay Peak typically average about 2X the snowfall I record here at our site (e.g. if I record 150” they’ll be in the 300” range, and if I record 200” they’ll be in the 400” range, etc.), so if our average through 12/25 here is 41.0”, average snowfall pace for them at this point should be 80”+.  I’m not sure if PF has daily season averages for his Stowe plot, but I know he’s got monthly averages and should be able to say where the mountain’s snowfall should be by the end of this month with respect to average pace.

[PhineasC]

8 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Heavy damage

Dear Belleayre Friends and Family,

After a tremendous amount of rain and high winds, which has severely impacted our ability to operate in the current environment, The Christmas storm has dumped over 6.5 inches of rain on Belleayre.

This morning, supersaturated snow from the Yahoo trail let loose and slid into the Overlook Lodge. The lodge sustained significant damage, with windows and doors broken. No injuries have been reported.

The mountain will remain closed for the 26th of December as we are unable to provide a safe environment for our guests. The operations team is working diligently to manage the current situation and help the mountain recover quickly as we head into the rest of the holiday week.

For those of you that had tickets for the 26th, please complete the Customer Service form and we will get back to you with regards to your purchases as soon as possible. As we continue to adjust resort operations, we will continue to prioritize the safety of our guests and our staff. Moving forward we are encouraging our guests to please check back on our website with regards to any pertinent updates!

The mountain is currently planning to reopen on Sunday the 27th.

Upslope can’t fix the lodge. LOL

[jculligan]

Up to 3.18" of rain here in Jackson. My biggest single storm total since August was 3.33" on 11/30-12/1 so this has a fair chance of surpassing that. Temp down to 48F.

[klw]

It didn't seem like we got much rain out of this- long duration but not heavy at anyone time.  That being said the pack is toast and all of a sudden this morning our springs all erupted and streams started from all parts of our hill.

Look like KLEB has 0.90 so far which feels right. The two closest stations on WUnderground are at 1.26 and 1.56.

[powderfreak]

2 hours ago, J.Spin said:

Yeah, but you know it’s not going to play out like that around here.  Heck, Mansfield will probably get more than that 1” from the snow on the back side of this system and the subsequent LES.  It just seems like it would be hard to go 16 days at this time of year without substantially more snow than that due to the immovable lift of the mountains.

Yeah agreed but that’s a pretty bleak look right now.  Head up into the mountains and it’s yikes.

I feel like valley snow is well ahead of mountain totals relative to normal right now.

Mansfield at 55” at 3,000ft and Jay Peak only 67”.  Sugarbush at 39” up top.  Smuggs at 44”.

Those might be only be 50-60% of normal heading into the New Year with zero natural snowpack.  It’s sneakily been one of the worst December snowfall totals I’ve seen but will check some numbers in coming days as we approach January 1st.

Mansfield is running +5.5 for temps in December before this torch.  It’ll go down as a 2011 type December (this will likely be warmer this year actually).

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah agreed but that’s a pretty bleak look right now.  Head up into the mountains and it’s yikes.

I feel like valley snow is well ahead of mountain totals relative to normal right now.

Mansfield at 55” at 3,000ft and Jay Peak only 67”.  Sugarbush at 39” up top.  Smuggs at 44”.

Those might be only be 50% of normal heading into the New Year with zero natural snowpack.  It’s sneakily been one of the worst December snowfall totals I’ve seen but will check some numbers in coming days as we approach January 1st.

Nice. More snow for the chickens so far than Sugarbush.

[powderfreak]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Nice. More snow for the chickens so far than Sugarbush.

That one storm will be a difference maker most of this season lol.

Okemo with 51” so far this season... and 44 of them came in a 24 hour period, ha. 

[backedgeapproaching]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

The problem is a wave of low pressure formed on the front and really inverted the whole system. So up here it slowed and down south it accelerated...hence why we’re going to be getting the front and caa from the SW. It’s not as if the fronts up here are always slow...we can rip them through too. We’ve just had some exceptionally bad cutters lately. Plenty of winter to go though. We’ve rocked the 2nd half after a crap first half before (not that it’s been crap here). 

BML adding to that 50F+ dewpoint record for MET winter that you posted about the other day with that graph.  Tack on another 9-10 hours.

[dendrite]

Just now, backedgeapproaching said:

BML adding to that 50F+ dewpoint record for MET winter that you posted about the other day with that graph.  Tack on another 9-10 hours.

Next hour CAR should be warmer than EYW.

[dendrite]

Update

 

[backedgeapproaching]

 

[dendrite]

MVL too.

 

[powderfreak]

A very 2011-12 type winter so far.  Temps are almost identical to December 2011 in the mountains (this year might be a tad warmer).

Snow depth on the cam is hard to read due to a foggy lens but seems to be around 5” down from 13” yesterday.  So now under 2011 too.

[PhineasC]

36 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah agreed but that’s a pretty bleak look right now.  Head up into the mountains and it’s yikes.

I feel like valley snow is well ahead of mountain totals relative to normal right now.

Mansfield at 55” at 3,000ft and Jay Peak only 67”.  Sugarbush at 39” up top.  Smuggs at 44”.

Those might be only be 50-60% of normal heading into the New Year with zero natural snowpack.  It’s sneakily been one of the worst December snowfall totals I’ve seen but will check some numbers in coming days as we approach January 1st.

Mansfield is running +5.5 for temps in December before this torch.  It’ll go down as a 2011 type December (this will likely be warmer this year actually).

Honest question: aren’t the totals from these ski resorts kinda biased by snowmaking? Is it somehow kept totally separate?

[J.Spin]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

Honest question: aren’t the totals from these ski resorts kinda biased by snowmaking? Is it somehow kept totally separate?

The snowmaking is totally unrelated to season snowfall (unless a resort is totally clueless and doing something wrong).

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, J.Spin said:

The snowmaking is totally unrelated to season snowfall (unless a resort is totally clueless and doing something wrong).

I was just thinking about blow over from the guns when they are going full blast. I assume the measuring is somewhere separate and protected. 

[powderfreak]

7 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Honest question: aren’t the totals from these ski resorts kinda biased by snowmaking? Is it somehow kept totally separate?

Nope not at all.  They are completely removed from snowmaking.  We have a live cam on one and then we also have a ground based board.  Sugarbush has live cams on their snow board too.  It's very easy to keep totally separate.  Social media has kept the ski areas pretty damn honest in the past decade and most places now have some sort of public facing way to see accumulations.  I always try to post the High Road snow totals and take photos of most of the snowfalls for social media.

These places average 250-300" a year, that's how you get 6-10 foot natural snowpacks common place.  My highest personally measuring almost every inch was 375" in 2017-18.  The best part was the last storm in April was a surprise 13" of dense snow at the High Road snow plot to bring it to an even 375".

[PhineasC]

Maybe just the eggnog talking, but the 18z GFS looks to at least be trying to give us snow on New Years. The front comes through faster than this last POS. 

[mreaves]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Nope not at all.  They are completely removed from snowmaking.  We have a live cam on one and then we also have a ground based board.  Sugarbush has live cams on their snow board too.  It's very easy to keep totally separate.  Social media has kept the ski areas pretty damn honest in the past decade and most places now have some sort of public facing way to see accumulations.  I always try to post the High Road snow totals and take photos of most of the snowfalls for social media.

These places average 250-300" a year, that's how you get 6-10 foot natural snowpacks too.  My highest personally measuring almost every inch was 375" in 2017-18.  The best part was the last storm in April was a surprise 13" of dense snow at the High Road snow plot to bring it to an even 375".

If you measured with snowmaking, you’d average 750” a year 

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Nope not at all.  They are completely removed from snowmaking.  We have a live cam on one and then we also have a ground based board.  Sugarbush has live cams on their snow board too.  It's very easy to keep totally separate.  Social media has kept the ski areas pretty damn honest in the past decade and most places now have some sort of public facing way to see accumulations.  I always try to post the High Road snow totals and take photos of most of the snowfalls for social media.

These places average 250-300" a year, that's how you get 6-10 foot natural snowpacks too.  My highest personally measuring almost every inch was 375" in 2017-18.  The best part was the last storm in April was a surprise 13" of dense snow at the High Road snow plot to bring it to an even 375".

Appreciate the info. Not trying to doubt you at all.   just wondering how they handle it when the snow guns are all going full blast. 

[J.Spin]

Just now, PhineasC said:

I was just thinking about blow over from the guns when they are going full blast. I assume the measuring is somewhere separate and protected. 

That’s right.  Any resort that tried to incorporate manmade snow into their season snow totals would pretty much be laughed at.  If they wanted to play that game then each season’s snowfall could essentially be infinite.

[backedgeapproaching]

32 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Next hour CAR should be warmer than EYW.

That's got to be a first for DEC, no way that has ever happened before. 

[backedgeapproaching]

CAA finally arriving.  39F 

[bwt3650]

50 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

A very 2011-12 type winter so far.  Temps are almost identical to December 2011 in the mountains (this year might be a tad warmer).

Snow depth on the cam is hard to read due to a foggy lens but seems to be around 5” down from 13” yesterday.  So now under 2011 too.

Do you have the jay depth info?

[J.Spin]

13 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Maybe just the eggnog talking, but the 18z GFS looks to at least be trying to give us snow on New Years. The front comes through faster than this last POS. 

There were model runs showing that sort of result for this current storm as well.  It’s not impossible, but in my experience, you really need something more than just the front pushing though (such as touches of redevelopment) to get substantial snows.  Obviously in terms of locations, the Northern Greens can wring out moisture with the best of them, but I don’t think I’ve ever seen more than a few inches of snow from a pure frontal passage.  It’s possible that the models are picking up on something that’s changing that back side of that modeled storm to something more than just a typical cold frontal passage, and I’m sure the meteorologists can comment on that.

[dendrite]

Front just roared through.

As for CAR...just noticed they had their first ever Nov 70s this year and their first ever Dec 60s as well. Lots of record highs up there the past 2 months.

[PhineasC]

3 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

There were model runs showing that sort of result for this current storm as well.  It’s not impossible, but in my experience, you really need something more than just the front pushing though (such as touches of redevelopment) to get substantial snows.  Obviously in terms of locations, the Northern Greens can wring out moisture with the best of them, but I don’t think I’ve ever seen more than a few inches of snow from a pure frontal passage.  It’s possible that the models are picking up on something that’s changing that back side of that modeled storm to something more than just a typical cold frontal passage, and I’m sure the meteorologists can comment on that.

Oh I’m just looking for a few inches. I like just having snow in the air. 

[powderfreak]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Front just roared through.

As for CAR...just noticed they had their first ever Nov 70s this year and their first ever Dec 60s as well. Lots of record highs up there the past 2 months.

And this summer too.  Been a lot of heat records in NNE between the obscene summer heat and then this start to winter.

[PhineasC]

14 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

And this summer too.  Been a lot of heat records in NNE between the obscene summer heat and then this start to winter.

Pretty sure it’s me.   

[J.Spin]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

Oh I’m just looking for a few inches. I live just having snow in the air. 

That can definitely be done in your location, it will just depend on the makeup of the front.  I think snow from fronts such as this are part of the fraud crew in SNE, but it’s definitely different up here

That’s what’s so great about winter up here in the mountains though – as I mentioned, while indeed you may not get all snow from every storm (this December is trying to make that blatantly obvious), you will get some snow from just about every storm.  At least that’s how it works in this area.  We sort of have a bit more of the Great Lakes/LES hookup over here in the Northern Greens to make that happen, and we’re still trying to figure out exactly how things go in your neck of the woods, but you should get in on a lot of it (Alex seems to get in on most of it in his location).

Our point forecast here suggests an inch of accumulation through tomorrow night, and the Mansfield point forecast is in the 2-5” range, so anything in that realm is possible.  These fronts can be funky because the air is trying to dry out as the colder temperatures arrive, so sometimes they can flop, even here.  Typically, there’s some snow to wring out though.