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NNE Cold Season Thread 2020-2021


wxeyeNH
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3 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Never lost power here. We have been lucky with that. Winds have died down, rain setting in now. Pack is gone aside from some piles here and there. It’ll be a total restart. I wonder if Bretton Woods will have anything left?

Snowmaking trails will be fine. Naturals wiped out.

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56F Light rain.  Only 1.25" so far but second batch to arrive soon.

Just took a ride at 1245pm.  Almost total snowcover remains down below my elevation but warm wind has melted 25% of the snow in my fields although woods remain snow covered.  I assume that most snowcover will survive in the lowland woods.

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18 minutes ago, alex said:

We are about 1.5 feet in river level from getting flooded. Fortunately not precipitating now but radar looks ominous 

The radar has looked ominous but even though it shows moderate to heavy rain over me it is not raining very hard.  Only .10" in the past hour.  It's lucky you didn't have the 2 foot snow fall like we did or there would be a ton of snowmelt coming down the mountain.

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23 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

The radar has looked ominous but even though it shows moderate to heavy rain over me it is not raining very hard.  Only .10" in the past hour.  It's lucky you didn't have the 2 foot snow fall like we did or there would be a ton of snowmelt coming down the mountain.

There’s a lot of brightbanding right now on the edge of the beam.

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2 hours ago, PhineasC said:

Would a second giant cutter a week from now do it? LOL

Well if the Euro is right we do it again in a week.

Going to be real impressive if we go a week or two in NNE mtns in heart of winter with bare ground.  I don’t even see much snow shower chances.  Then a warm heavy rainer again.

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Well if the Euro is right we do it again in a week.

Going to be real impressive if we go a week or two in NNE mtns in heart of winter with bare ground.  I don’t even see much snow shower chances.  Then a warm heavy rainer again.

The GFS and CMC show the cutter too, just they have a little snow on the backside (bread and butter to cover the mudslides LOL). So it seems pretty locked-in. Just sick.

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5 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

The GFS and CMC show the cutter too, just they have a little snow on the backside (bread and butter to cover the mudslides LOL). So it seems pretty locked-in. Just sick.

It's really hard to go 16 days of model fantasy in mid-winter and actually have a part of NNE where there is literally not even a tenth of snow printed over a two week period.  And 1-6" max in most of the mountains during a 16-day period too.

gfs-deterministic-neng-total_snow_10to1-0280000.thumb.png.31bbfb3b5889e86d060e2349a35359f2.png

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It's really hard to go 16 days of model fantasy in mid-winter and actually have a part of NNE where there is literally not even a tenth of snow printed over a two week period.  And 1-6" max in most of the mountains during a 16-day period too.

gfs-deterministic-neng-total_snow_10to1-0280000.thumb.png.31bbfb3b5889e86d060e2349a35359f2.png

I guess it hasn't really been a terrible winter yet in terms of raw snow totals. Randolph is slightly north of 40" now I believe. But these cutters are just brutal. Averages being what they are, I assume we are due to get clobbered here fairly soon. Having seen a small taste of how wintry it can be here, it really hurts to get these tropical systems. In MD I was used to this BS, but up here it feels abnormal. These cutters also seem worse than in MD. They hit harder and last longer IMO. The cold fronts drag and drag. Longitude is a bitch in these setups.

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The problem is a wave of low pressure formed on the front and really inverted the whole system. So up here it slowed and down south it accelerated...hence why we’re going to be getting the front and caa from the SW. It’s not as if the fronts up here are always slow...we can rip them through too. We’ve just had some exceptionally bad cutters lately. Plenty of winter to go though. We’ve rocked the 2nd half after a crap first half before (not that it’s been crap here). 

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54 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It's really hard to go 16 days of model fantasy in mid-winter and actually have a part of NNE where there is literally not even a tenth of snow printed over a two week period.  And 1-6" max in most of the mountains during a 16-day period too.

gfs-deterministic-neng-total_snow_10to1-0280000.thumb.png.31bbfb3b5889e86d060e2349a35359f2.png

Not to worry. Jspin wiil double or triple those totals.

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58 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It's really hard to go 16 days of model fantasy in mid-winter and actually have a part of NNE where there is literally not even a tenth of snow printed over a two week period.  And 1-6" max in most of the mountains during a 16-day period too.

gfs-deterministic-neng-total_snow_10to1-0280000.thumb.png.31bbfb3b5889e86d060e2349a35359f2.png

Yeah, but you know it’s not going to play out like that around here.  Heck, Mansfield will probably get more than that 1” from the snow on the back side of this system and the subsequent LES.  It just seems like it would be hard to go 16 days at this time of year without substantially more snow than that due to the immovable lift of the mountains.

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21 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

Yeah, but you know it’s not going to play out like that around here.  Heck, Mansfield will probably get more than that 1” from the snow on the back side of this system and the subsequent LES.  It just seems like it would be hard to go 16 days at this time of year without substantially more snow than that due to the immovable lift of the mountains.

Agreed, I am hoping for a little surprise this week. Would raise spirits.

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My wife got to see a white Christmas for the first time this morning as we went to Banner Elk, NC in the mountains. It felt just like a solid Vermont upslope event with temps between 8-13F and periodic moderate to heavy high ratio snow. 

 

FB_IMG_1608914076542.jpg

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55 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I guess it hasn't really been a terrible winter yet in terms of raw snow totals. Randolph is slightly north of 40" now I believe.

My data say that we could hardly be more average to this point in the season than what we’ve seen.  We’re at 40.1” of snow on the season, and we just fell behind average snowfall yesterday (12/24 mean = 40.4”).  Mean snowfall through today is 41.0”, but our point forecast suggests we won’t see any additional snow here until after midnight.

Things may feel a bit more off of average pace than they are due to the fact that November was better than average on snowfall, and December thus far has been below average.  Also, I suspect snowpack (SDD) is behind average pace as well, which can give the month a less average feel.  Mean snow depth for this date at our site is roughly 7 inches, and obviously we’re below that with only a trace out there right now.

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Heavy damage

Dear Belleayre Friends and Family,

After a tremendous amount of rain and high winds, which has severely impacted our ability to operate in the current environment, The Christmas storm has dumped over 6.5 inches of rain on Belleayre.

This morning, supersaturated snow from the Yahoo trail let loose and slid into the Overlook Lodge. The lodge sustained significant damage, with windows and doors broken. No injuries have been reported.

The mountain will remain closed for the 26th of December as we are unable to provide a safe environment for our guests. The operations team is working diligently to manage the current situation and help the mountain recover quickly as we head into the rest of the holiday week.

For those of you that had tickets for the 26th, please complete the Customer Service form and we will get back to you with regards to your purchases as soon as possible. As we continue to adjust resort operations, we will continue to prioritize the safety of our guests and our staff. Moving forward we are encouraging our guests to please check back on our website with regards to any pertinent updates!

The mountain is currently planning to reopen on Sunday the 27th.

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