jculligan Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: You might get decent snow this weekend too. One thing that will tak a while getting used to is not to fear modeled cutters as much....they often turn into what we're seeing on the Euro. It doesn't make a difference for MD, but in NE (esp NNE) it can go from 50F rainer to snowstorm in a couple cycles. Just a few days back, the Euro had my area torching into the mid 50s this weekend with 1" QPF all rain. Now we're looking at a 6" snow event (as modeled) and the "torch" is limited to a few hours Sunday night. The gfs/Canadian aren't as friendly, but even with its perceived struggles recently...I'm always inclined to lean toward the Euro over the other globals this far out. It'll be interesting to see how this trends over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 19 minutes ago, PhineasC said: It seems like it’s been hanging around 20 degrees since Sunday with flakes in the air. Is this the “bread and butter” pattern? LOL The “bread and butter” expression is in used around here in line with its “basic means of support; source of livelihood; sustenance” definition, and it developed to describe some of the typical/frequent Clipper-style weather systems we get up here in the Northern Greens, and it of course would apply to other parts of NNE with similar climate. The meaning of the expression has actually been a pretty good fit because indeed the storms don’t look flashy on the surface, but they’re frequent, typically quite reliable, and help sustain the quality of the conditions on the slopes. They often don’t look like much to folks who aren’t in the know, but they can routinely put down a half a foot of snow in the higher elevations, simply due to the mountain orographics doing their thing. In the analogy, big synoptic storms like nor’easters would be some sort of special meal I guess. The term can be used to describe the type of systems, as well as the pattern, but this doesn’t feel quite like a full blown bread and butter “pattern” at the moment, at least in the longer-term sense. That type of pattern is most obvious when we can see multiple Clippers/shortwaves queued up on the models upstream, and then they come through every couple of days – sort of when it’s just the northern branch of the jet stream affecting our area. When the southern branch of the jet gets involved, it seems like there’s a lot less reliability (there can be issues of phasing, warm temperatures, larger deviations in track, etc.). But getting continuous/nearly continuous snow for days on end like this is definitely what you can get when bread and butter storms come through like they do. They hit the mountains, drop front side snow, and then back side snow can hang around for quite a while. When the systems are coming in fast enough sequence, they just sort of blend together and it can be hard at times to know when one system ended and another began. As someone who organizes my snow data by specific systems, this can get to be a bit of an organizational challenge at times. Anyway, if it’s continuously snowing over by you guys like it is over here, enjoy! Alex has commented on the aesthetics of this type of snowfall a number of times, so one gets the impression that he likes that sort of climate. The way it’s been lightly (although at times more heavily in spots) snowing almost continuously for the past few days is where the “snow globe” expression comes from as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Nice to have a couple Advisory events on the Euro through Day 5-6. I think the ski areas do well over the next 72 hours too. That’s got “the look”. Then we have whatever the weekend does. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Was snowing pretty hard from Stowe to Waterbury this afternoon on the drive, heaviest right near Exit 10 not far from J.Spin. Looked like I had about a half inch at home before leaving. Big huge flakes. It’s mesmerizing driving through it, lol. Hard to focus sometimes. Its by far the most picturesque snow when thousands of those 1/4”-1/2” diameter dendrites just hang in the air literally like a shaken snow globe. Just like giant feathers in no hurry to get to the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 16 minutes ago, J.Spin said: The “bread and butter” expression is in used around here in line with its “basic means of support; source of livelihood; sustenance” definition, and it developed to describe some of the typical/frequent Clipper-style weather systems we get up here in the Northern Greens, and it of course would apply to other parts of NNE with similar climate. The meaning of the expression has actually been a pretty good fit because indeed the storms don’t look flashy on the surface, but they’re frequent, typically quite reliable, and help sustain the quality of the conditions on the slopes. They often don’t look like much to folks who aren’t in the know, but they can routinely put down a half a foot of snow in the higher elevations, simply due to the mountain orographics doing their thing. In the analogy, big synoptic storms like nor’easters would be some sort of special meal I guess. The term can be used to describe the type of systems, as well as the pattern, but this doesn’t feel quite like a full blown bread and butter “pattern” at the moment, at least in the longer-term sense. That type of pattern is most obvious when we can see multiple Clippers/shortwaves queued up on the models upstream, and then they come through every couple of days – sort of when it’s just the northern branch of the jet stream affecting our area. When the southern branch of the jet gets involved, it seems like there’s a lot less reliability (there can be issues of phasing, warm temperatures, larger deviations in track, etc.). But getting continuous/nearly continuous snow for days on end like this is definitely what you can get when bread and butter storms come through like they do. They hit the mountains, drop front side snow, and then back side snow can hang around for quite a while. When the systems are coming in fast enough sequence, they just sort of blend together and it can be hard at times to know when one system ended and another began. As someone who organizes my snow data by specific systems, this can get to be a bit of an organizational challenge at times. Anyway, if it’s continuously snowing over by you guys like it is over here, enjoy! Alex has commented on the aesthetics of this type of snowfall a number of times, so one gets the impression that he likes that sort of climate. The way it’s been lightly (although at times more heavily in spots) snowing almost continuously for the past few days is where the “snow globe” expression comes from as well. Yep, been snowing every day since Saturday. Some decent bursts today actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Days of days of upslope. Love that 3 days after a storm, it still looks like this (just taken) 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 It’s the “wintry appeal” vibe when there are just flakes falling all the time. Even if there’s no real accumulation it’s about setting the winter mood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 23 minutes ago, powderfreak said: It’s the “wintry appeal” vibe when there are just flakes falling all the time. Even if there’s no real accumulation it’s about setting the winter mood. For some visitors, that wintry appeal is probably important. For the hard core skiers, they’re likely not too concerned if the situation in town isn’t supremely aesthetic, as long as the snow on the slopes is in good shape. But when you have families come up to vacation with non-skiers who want to just enjoy other winter activities, such as doing things around town, browsing the shops, etc., I bet it keeps them coming back if they know they can come up and expect to get those bucolic, wintry VT scenes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaGrangewx Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Was looking at Bretton Woods on Instagram and saw they reported snow but MW Observatory has not reported any and seemed to be above the clouds yesterday. Can the summit of Mount Washington actually be above the upslope at times? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jculligan Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Just now, LaGrangewx said: Was looking at Bretton Woods on Instagram and saw they reported snow but MW Observatory has not reported any and seemed to be above the clouds yesterday. Can the summit of Mount Washington actually be above the upslope at times? Yes...in fact I personally witnessed this at Cannon Mountain last December. It was snowing enough to accumulate at the base of the mountain...then we ascended through the cloud layer and eventually broke above the clouds with the most amazing undercast I've ever witnessed at the summit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheMainer Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Took yesterday off to clear snowmobile trails in Monson, Maine (just south of Moosehead Lake). What a mess out there. 13 inches of paste did a real number on alders and birches. In 6.5 hours we made it 5 miles and through 3 tanks of chainsaw gas each and that wasn't even cutting everything... Getting a big crew together Saturday to try to make a big push hopefully, 8 to 10 people on sleds with saws should be better than the two of us yesterday. 20 trees blown down in 200 yards After We fit our 8.5 foot wide groomer through here, always a tight section but hoping they log it in the next few years to open it up. Hoping the guidance is right for this weekend, we got a great base started, another 12 inches and we'll be grooming. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaGrangewx Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 10 minutes ago, jculligan said: Yes...in fact I personally witnessed this at Cannon Mountain last December. It was snowing enough to accumulate at the base of the mountain...then we ascended through the cloud layer and eventually broke above the clouds with the most amazing undercast I've ever witnessed at the summit. Wow that’s cool. I wonder if that’s rare or a more frequent occurrence and the summit misses out on some snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 3 minutes ago, LaGrangewx said: Wow that’s cool. I wonder if that’s rare or a more frequent occurrence and the summit misses out on some snow @powderfreak posts some great undercast pictures from the top of Mt. Mansfield from time to time. I saw one from Whiteface yesterday. I don't remember where it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaGrangewx Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 6 minutes ago, mreaves said: @powderfreak posts some great undercast pictures from the top of Mt. Mansfield from time to time. I saw one from Whiteface yesterday. I don't remember where it was. Yup I saw that picture too. I saw it on nws btv Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Coyote? Neighbor’s retriever? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 1 hour ago, LaGrangewx said: Wow that’s cool. I wonder if that’s rare or a more frequent occurrence and the summit misses out on some snow I remember reading about an event in the last decade or so where Pinkham Notch was getting crushed and the summit of Mount Washington had sun with undercast and flurries reaching the summit from the undercast below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 20 minutes ago, dendrite said: I remember reading about an event in the last decade or so where Pinkham Notch was getting crushed and the summit of Mount Washington had sun with undercast and flurries reaching the summit from the undercast below. Damn the weenies there must have been pissed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Just got home to 1” of absolute dust. Can see straight through it. Still snowing lightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 Event totals: 3.8” Snow/0.07” L.E. Well, maybe this is the last round of observations for this event. We’ve still got some flurries out there, but accumulation since the last clearing is sub-0.1” at this point. Whatever goes on with the tail end of this storm, the next system is virtually on our doorstep anyway. Any clearing that we might have had today is supposed to give way to cloudiness tonight, and I see snow chances in the point forecast starting up tomorrow morning. The current point forecast here suggests something in the 4-7” range for this next event. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.4 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 23.2 F Sky: Flurries Snow at the stake: 1.0 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: Just got home to 1” of absolute dust. Can see straight through it. Still snowing lightly. I hear that on the dust – I didn’t even get 0.01” of liquid out of the 0.4” on the board at the 6:00 P.M. clearing. I did get a total of 0.38 mL of liquid from two stacked cores, but that comes in at 0.0021” of liquid per core, which is still well under the 0.005” threshold where it would round up to the 0.01” level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patriot21 Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 I have also had light snow/flurries continuously here since the snow this weekend, I woke up to a fresh inch this morning as I left for work at 3 a.m and there is still white stuff falling now. I do not know if this is considered upslope where I live as I feel I live "back in the hills" more than "up in the mountains", but something is happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 I see that the BTV NWS is getting a bit more detailed on the upcoming system; the Mansfield point forecast suggests something in the 6-10” range. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 634 PM EST Tue Dec 8 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Light snow returns though early Wednesday as an upper level disturbance passes over the region and continues Wednesday night before becoming confined to the mountains on Thursday. Snowfall will range from a dusting to an inch in the lowest elevations, with 2 to 4 inches across the western upslope regions, and over 6 inches on the higher peaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 1 hour ago, J.Spin said: I hear that on the dust – I didn’t even get 0.01” of liquid out of the 0.4” on the board at the 6:00 P.M. clearing. I did get a total of 0.38 mL of liquid from two stacked cores, but that comes in at 0.0021” of liquid per core, which is still well under the 0.005” threshold where it would round up to the 0.01” level. The past couple days definitely feel a bit snowier here than normal in these patterns. Just the right conditions I guess for dendrites. When we left the roads were dry and got back and they were snow covered except for the wheel lanes. Despite literally nothing on radar we've had some decent periods of light snow and almost like a snow mist this evening. It has to be very low level stuff for the radar to not hit it (under 5-6k feet here). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 Snow has picked up in intensity again. Cleared the board -1.8” in 24 hrs. Has no weight to it at all, pure fluff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 The accumulations haven't been all that much, but what a snowy period for literally nothing showing up on the models at all. As of 10pm it is still snowing lightly. Total accumulations with a couple board clearings in the past 48 hours is ~5.75" of mostly non-modeled snow. There's 4" of snow depth (plenty of compaction in the past 24 hours), owing to the fluffy nature of the recent snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 Just more of the seemingly never-ending flurries here right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 Finally stopped snowing - although seemingly not for long. Not sure what to make on the weekends event. Gyx seems very enthusiastic about an all snow event; models don’t seem quite so enthusiastic but my mode interpretation skills are poor at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 Event totals: 0.3” Snow/0.01” L.E. We got a brief break in the snowfall last night, so Mother Nature has made it relatively easy to find the demarcation between the end the last event and the start of this one. The point forecast here suggests something in the 3-6” range for snowfall with this system. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.3 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 90.0 Snow Density: 3.3% H2O Temperature: 30.0 F Sky: Light Snow (2 to 4 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 1.0 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 19 minutes ago, alex said: Finally stopped snowing - although seemingly not for long. We’ve got steady light snow here, so if the usual trends you talk about hold up, you should have snow falling again before too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 17 hours ago, TheMainer said: Took yesterday off to clear snowmobile trails in Monson, Maine (just south of Moosehead Lake). What a mess out there. 13 inches of paste did a real number on alders and birches. In 6.5 hours we made it 5 miles and through 3 tanks of chainsaw gas each and that wasn't even cutting everything... Getting a big crew together Saturday to try to make a big push hopefully, 8 to 10 people on sleds with saws should be better than the two of us yesterday. 20 trees blown down in 200 yards After We fit our 8.5 foot wide groomer through here, always a tight section but hoping they log it in the next few years to open it up. Hoping the guidance is right for this weekend, we got a great base started, another 12 inches and we'll be grooming. All projects are having blow down concerns, This was a bad one for trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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