NNE Cold Season Thread 2020-2021

[ORH_wxman]

14 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I figured you’d be able to clarify the situation. 

Yeah Jefferson is still way better than places like Lancaster and Whitefield, but they are on the "same side" of the terrain as them, so that's definitely why there is a notable difference between them and Randolph which is on the other side of those key terrain features. The snowfall seems to really increase once you get into the "curve to the east" part of Rt 2 about a couple miles east of downtown Jefferson.

[powderfreak]

36 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah Jefferson is still way better than places like Lancaster and Whitefield, but they are on the "same side" of the terrain as them, so that's definitely why there is a notable difference between them and Randolph which is on the other side of those key terrain features. The snowfall seems to really increase once you get into the "curve to the east" part of Rt 2 about a couple miles east of downtown Jefferson.

Right on the Randolph/Jefferson line at 1,600ft on RT 2 looks like it would be pretty darn snowy.  You get a nice confluence and narrowing too.  The terrain doesn't seem big enough to really downslope.  What you say in actual Jefferson towards Santa's House or whatever it is makes sense, those are surprisingly big hills.

Terrain wise, this is some elevation on RT 2 even above 1,600ft and I bet that nook gets hit well by both east and westerly flow, sneaking through the narrows there almost like a J.Spin type spot.  Probably extent that west into Randolph there in the narrows.  I wonder if Alex knows how that zone is on NW flow upslope. It has that look.

[PhineasC]

The little event for Wednesday and Thursday is looking slightly more potent on the latest mesoscale runs (to me at least). Maybe we can squeeze out a few inches of dust? Hell, PF just got 4”+ from a radar glitch so why not?

[alex]

Maybe I should try the other door. 

[bwt3650]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

My wife just measured "about 4 inches" (take that with a grain of salt from her) at 750ft ha.

Looks like at 7am the Lower Village came in with 2.9" on 0.18" water.

Still nothing at 1,500ft. 

Lol at wife measuring the snow... I’ll ask my wife when I’m back in jersey and she’s still up at jay and I’ll get “you’re such a tool”...then she’ll send me this half ass measurement from the sidewalk and I’ll ask her if she can try a better spot.  

[dendrite]

These clouds the last 2 days have been a PITA...still 26.8°. Haven’t been out of the 20s since it was snowing late Sat night. I’d like the truck ice free...thx. 

[dendrite]

Just now, bwt3650 said:

Lol at wife measuring the snow... I’ll ask my wife when I’m back in jersey and she’s still up at jay and I’ll get “you’re such a tool”...then she’ll send me this half ass measurement from the sidewalk and I’ll ask her if she can try a better spot.  

That’s basically what I get now. The first time it was a good effort, the 2nd time it was a quick measure, the 3rd time it was just a pic, now it’s basically “gfy”.

[backedgeapproaching]

21 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

The little event for Wednesday and Thursday is looking slightly more potent on the latest mesoscale runs (to me at least). Maybe we can squeeze out a few inches of dust? Hell, PF just got 4”+ from a radar glitch so why not?

Cue up the JSpin trademark:

[backedgeapproaching]

I honestly once tried to get my wife to a LE measurement using the cocorahs gauge on the snow board when I was out of town for work.  I was talking to her through the nest cam and telling her how to do it watching her as she tried.  It did not end well. 

[powderfreak]

5 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

Lol at wife measuring the snow... I’ll ask my wife when I’m back in jersey and she’s still up at jay and I’ll get “you’re such a tool”...then she’ll send me this half ass measurement from the sidewalk and I’ll ask her if she can try a better spot.  

Ha she goes out with the dog.  I’ve got the yardstick by the door.

Can see my little snow table in the garden with Stratus... wasn’t expecting snow so didn’t take out the inner tube on the Stratus, oops.  Will try to get a liquid amount later.

Still snowing at home but lightened up and it’s probably holding right at 4”.

What a bizarre event, still only flurries at the mountain.

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, backedgeapproaching said:

I honestly once tried to get my wife to a LE measurement using the cocorahs gauge on the snow board when I was out of town for work.  I was talking to her through the nest cam and telling her how to do it watching her as she tried.  It did not end well. 

Now that is dedication.  No way in hell I’d try that.  But if she’s outside playing with the dog she can certainly take the stick over and see how much is on the table in the Garden lol.

[backedgeapproaching]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Now that is dedication.  No way in hell I’d try that.  But if she’s outside playing with the dog she can certainly take the stick over and see how much is on the table in the Garden lol.

It was obviously a one time only try as do not wish to move out and have to get my own apartment 

 

[mreaves]

17 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ha she goes out with the dog.  I’ve got the yardstick by the door.

Can see my little snow table in the garden with Stratus... wasn’t expecting snow so didn’t take out the inner tube on the Stratus, oops.  Will try to get a liquid amount later.

Still snowing at home but lightened up and it’s probably holding right at 4”.

What a bizarre event, still only flurries at the mountain.

 

I remember an event in 2007 between the MLK Day storm that gave us a good, sleety base and the VD storm that crushed us where my area got something like 10" from a lake effect streamer and 3 or 4 miles either side of us got like 3" or 4".  It was one of those things where you have to tell people you're not making things up.  Stuff like that happens from time to time and as you have pointed out, it's part of what makes the weather so interesting.

[LaGrangewx]

4 hours ago, jculligan said:

Hermit Lake started archiving daily snowfall amounts back in early 2018, but due to the Covid shut-down last year they've only had one full winter of publicly-available observations so far. They measured 190" in the winter of 2018-2019 (compared to 261" on the summit) and they were up to 175" on 4/13 last year before reporting stopped (compared to 253" on the summit). It's unfortunate that reporting stopped in mid April this year, because unusually heavy snowfall continued in the alpine for about another month after that. But regardless, based on the last two winters it seems that Hermit Lake averages about 70-75% of the summit's seasonal snowfall...which would correlate to an average of approximately 215" or 220". Again, this is based on a very limited data set...but it's all we really have to work with at the moment.

I've been skiing the east side of Mount Washington on a very regular basis since 2013 and it's not at all uncommon for the peak seasonal depth to eclipse 90" in that location. It's a very impressive spot. I can't speak to the other locations you've noted, though I would imagine Hermit Lake has a higher average due to its elevation (nearly 3900' compared to 2800' at Lake Colden and 2900' at Chimney Pond). Maybe others in this thread can speak more to that!

Thanks for the input. That’s Interesting. I would love to get over and ski Tuckermans this spring. Seems like the 2 years you mentioned are probably below average seasons snowfall wise. I remember reading in this thread that some are very skeptical of MW summit snowfall measurement practices and that it’s almost impossible to accurately measure up there. I remember guesses that In reality it could average more like 400” which seems believable at 6280. I know Wildcat claims about 200” at 3000 feet mid mountain across the notch and Hermit lake is part of the actual MW basin about 1000’ higher than wildcat so I guessed maybe it would be more like 250”. But time will see if they are reporting now. I feel like it could be slightly more accurate down there than the summit as it is far more sheltered from the wind. 

[bwt3650]

1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

The little event for Wednesday and Thursday is looking slightly more potent on the latest mesoscale runs (to me at least). Maybe we can squeeze out a few inches of dust? Hell, PF just got 4”+ from a radar glitch so why not?

Gfs showing the upslope late week up here so I guess that’s a good sign if a global is picking up on it.

[jculligan]

16 minutes ago, LaGrangewx said:

Thanks for the input. That’s Interesting. I would love to get over and ski Tuckermans this spring. Seems like the 2 years you mentioned are probably below average seasons snowfall wise. I remember reading in this thread that some are very skeptical of MW summit snowfall measurement practices and that it’s almost impossible to accurately measure up there. I remember guesses that In reality it could average more like 400” which seems believable at 6280. I know Wildcat claims about 200” at 3000 feet mid mountain across the notch so I thought Hermit lake being part of the actual MW basin and 1000’ higher than wildcat so I guessed maybe it would be more like 250 But time will see if they are reporting now. I feel like it could be slightly more accurate down there than the summit sheltered from the wind. 

Many may already be aware of this, but there are three snow plots in the northern Presidentials....two on Mount Washington (Hermit Lake and Harvard Cabin) and one on Mount Adams (Gray Knob). All three are very close to 4000' in elevation:

https://mountwashingtonavalanchecenter.org/snow-plot-data/

I've noticed some rather significant differences in snow depth between the Hermit Lake and Harvard Cabin sites, which is interesting because they are not that far apart from one another. Snow depths tend to be deeper at Hermit Lake. I've been to Hermit Lake plenty of times, but I've never made the trek over to the Harvard Cabin - I'm assuming the lower snow depths are either the result of wind scouring or perhaps a more dense forest canopy (Hermit Lake is rather open). I'll have to check it out this winter.

[wxeyeNH]

1 hour ago, bwt3650 said:

Lol at wife measuring the snow... I’ll ask my wife when I’m back in jersey and she’s still up at jay and I’ll get “you’re such a tool”...then she’ll send me this half ass measurement from the sidewalk and I’ll ask her if she can try a better spot.  

Spouses are notorious bad weather observers.  One of my major pet peeves in life.  They can't be taught either.  Easily frustrated too.   Only thing worse is elderly parents with cataracts looking through screened windows.     This is why I spent $600 on Nest Cams for my snow stake and view.

[LaGrangewx]

5 minutes ago, jculligan said:

Many may already be aware of this, but there are three snow plots in the northern Presidentials....two on Mount Washington (Hermit Lake and Harvard Cabin) and one on Mount Adams (Gray Knob). All three are very close to 4000' in elevation:

https://mountwashingtonavalanchecenter.org/snow-plot-data/

I've noticed some rather significant differences in snow depth between the Hermit Lake and Harvard Cabin sites, which is interesting because they are not that far apart from one another. Snow depths tend to be deeper at Hermit Lake. I've been to Hermit Lake plenty of times, but I've never made the trek over to the Harvard Cabin - I'm assuming the lower snow depths are either the result of wind scouring or perhaps a more dense forest canopy (Hermit Lake is rather open). I'll have to check it out this winter.

I passed Harvard Cabin on the way up Huntington and then came down Tuckerman through Hermit Lake. I remember it being very dense on the way to Harvard Cabin but if I remember correctly it opens up a bit from there to the base of Huntington Ravine. Looking at the Topo Harvard Cabin is at about 3500 and Hermit 3900. They are less than 3/4 of a mile apart as the crow flies so yes it would be very interesting if there were truly drastic differences.

[powderfreak]

One of the rare days that marketing uses a photo from down in town. Subtle “snow swirling in town, snow guns at the mountain.”

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 0.7” Snow/0.02” L.E.

 

In classic upslope style, the light snow has been ticking along through today as the models suggested.  Flakes have been quite small here at our site though, so accumulations continue to be fairly low.

 

Details from the 12:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.1 inches

New Liquid: Trace

Temperature: 25.7 F

Sky: Light Snow (1-3 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: Trace

[PhineasC]

Been flurrying all day here. Nice wintry appeal, but probably no accumulation of note. We picked up about 1.5” in the showers yesterday. Really wintry last few days and rest of the week on tap. I am headed back to MD for 10 days on Friday so I will miss the cutter for this weekend. Hopefully it weakens for you guys and there is some snow on the front and back of it. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

almost has the feeling that this weekend will wind up a net gain up north 

[mahk_webstah]

5 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Right on the Randolph/Jefferson line at 1,600ft on RT 2 looks like it would be pretty darn snowy.  You get a nice confluence and narrowing too.  The terrain doesn't seem big enough to really downslope.  What you say in actual Jefferson towards Santa's House or whatever it is makes sense, those are surprisingly big hills.

Terrain wise, this is some elevation on RT 2 even above 1,600ft and I bet that nook gets hit well by both east and westerly flow, sneaking through the narrows there almost like a J.Spin type spot.  Probably extent that west into Randolph there in the narrows.  I wonder if Alex knows how that zone is on NW flow upslope. It has that look.

A few years ago in February we stayed at the mountain view grand in whitefield.  Only a few inches otg there, kinda disappointing.  Found a snowmobile rental place in Jefferson and it was a different world.  4-5ft in the woods, snow falling 2” an hour.  Amazing fun riding through those woods.  20 minute drive at the most from Whitefield.

[J.Spin]

9 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I don't think I've ever seen it this localized.  It's probably like a 3 mile by 3 mile box getting near Advisory level snows and then nothing outside of that.

 

8 hours ago, powderfreak said:

It is like a small streamer that the summit of Mansfield must be setting off because it is occurring directly downwind of the 4,395 peak.

So I got a bit of a surprise this afternoon with respect to this phenomenon.  I had to drive my younger son to Harwood to meet with his driving instructor for some practice, which brings me right through town here in Waterbury.  We left the house with the small flakes we’ve been getting since yesterday, and just as we reach the fringe of town, it starts pouring big ½” – 1” flakes in probably the 0.5”-1”/hr. range.  It was remarkable how quickly it turned on, and then as soon as I hit the southern end of town and started to climb toward Duxbury, it essentially shut off, or was at most just very light snow with the type of flakes we’ve had here at the house.  I figured I’d gone through a brief squall or something, but sure enough, as I drove back home, it’s pouring big flakes in the same place – right in town.  As soon as I left town heading toward our house, it was back to the light snow/small flakes, and that’s the way it stayed.  It was as if the center of town had its own little localized storm going on.

I had to check out the radar when I got home, and from what I can see, it’s another streamer, just like the one you’ve been reporting on in Stowe.  Looking at the positioning, I wonder if this one is coming off Bolton Mountain the way the one up near you is coming off Mansfield:

[J.Spin]

I’ve got a local update on these mountain streamers.  As I was back at the house checking out the radar, I was looking at the streamer down here, and it actually looked like it was shifting to the west (presumably due to a shift in the wind to a more northerly direction).  It looked like it was actually shifting enough to bring it near our site, and sure enough, I was looking out the window, and an immediate wall of big flakes came down.  It’s funny, having experienced going in and out of the streamer that we’ve got down here during my travels this afternoon, it’s clear that these streamers have a very sharp cutoff like LES bands vs. the typically broader effects we see with upslope.  Sometimes we’ll get some very sharp upslope bands, but these have definitely shown quite the cutoff.  I’ve got a radar grab below that shows the Waterbury streamer shifting to the west, and it quickly put down a half inch of snow when it got here.  The radar image also shows another pulse of moisture coming into the area from the north.

[PhineasC]

Definitely an “it just wants to snow” pattern right now. LOL

[powderfreak]

I can honestly say I’ve never seen it like this.  There’s just a dusting at 1500ft... 2” at 1,000ft by the Notchbrook store.  Literally the snow vibe increased (trees became white and power lines had snow on them) as you went DOWN the hill.

By the time at 750ft here there’s still 4” with fat flakes still lazily fall.  Town looks like a Hallmark Christmas movie with like several inches even on the power lines.  Every little twig is white and plow piles start to show up lol.

What a trip to see snow increase as you go down in elevation.

Its no big event but just the absurdity of it all.  It’s the talk of town how there’s this in town and nothing at the ski area... because it just doesn’t happen.  4” in town is more often 8-12” on the hill.  

[J.Spin]

10 hours ago, powderfreak said:

I mean this takes meso-scale snow to a WHOLE new level.

This thing has sat as a standing wave downwind of Mansfield, redeveloping over and over, for almost 3 hours now.

Not a flake at the mountain, and maybe 3” in my yard so far.  It’s not even snowing at friend’s houses at other parts of town.  Like Mother Nature just put a few pixels overhead and said hey, let’s rip you out some snow.

PF, note that you can see the beginnings of that Waterbury streamer even on your radar grab from this morning.  I hadn’t thought much of it at the time, but it’s obvious now.  My wife said that it was already snowing in Waterbury when she headed off to work before 7:00 A.M. this morning, and she was just at the Shaw’s in town a little while ago and noted that they got a pretty good shot of snow there.  She actually sent me a text early this morning to remark at how hard it was snowing as she went through Stowe, but I was working upstairs and didn’t check my phone until some point in the afternoon.  I told her I’d gotten plenty of timely updates from you on the weather forum though!

[powderfreak]

41 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

 

So I got a bit of a surprise this afternoon with respect to this phenomenon.  I had to drive my younger son to Harwood to meet with his driving instructor for some practice, which brings me right through town here in Waterbury.  We left the house with the small flakes we’ve been getting since yesterday, and just as we reach the fringe of town, it starts pouring big ½” – 1” flakes in probably the 0.5”-1”/hr. range.  It was remarkable how quickly it turned on, and then as soon as I hit the southern end of town and started to climb toward Duxbury, it essentially shut off, or was at most just very light snow with the type of flakes we’ve had here at the house.  I figured I’d gone through a brief squall or something, but sure enough, as I drove back home, it’s pouring big flakes in the same place – right in town.  As soon as I left town heading toward our house, it was back to the light snow/small flakes, and that’s the way it stayed.  It was as if the center of town had its own little localized storm going on.

I had to check out the radar when I got home, and from what I can see, it’s another streamer, just like the one you’ve been reporting on in Stowe.  Looking at the positioning, I wonder if this one is coming off Bolton Mountain the way the one up near you is coming off Mansfield:

Ha, yeah a buddy had like 3” right near Exit 10 near Stowe Street... the pictures looked fairly similar maybe a bit less than here.  Everyone coming to work or the mountain had stories like yours.  One guy was like there was a legit snowstorm going on at Ben and Jerry’s factory but nothing at all a mile north.  Then the same thing happened in Stowe and drove out of it at the ski area.

Like mini-pockets but stationary of 0.5-1”/hr snowfall.  The localized weather from the mountains is incredible.  This one takes the cake though.  There was a FB thread with photos of people around Stowe and Waterbury... it was all over the map.  One house has grass and a skiff of snow, then not far away someone posts a picture of plowing their driveway, lol.

I want one of these to happen like in Boston.  Some blocks get an Advisory snow mixed in with blocks of flurries.

[powderfreak]

5 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

PF, note that you can see the beginnings of that Waterbury streamer even on your radar grab from this morning.  I hadn’t thought much of it at the time, but it’s obvious now.  My wife said that it was already snowing in Waterbury when she headed off to work before 7:00 A.M. this morning, and she was just at the Shaw’s in town a little while ago and noted that they got a pretty good shot of snow there.  She actually sent me a text early this morning to remark at how hard it was snowing as she went through Stowe, but I was working upstairs and didn’t check my phone until some point in the afternoon.  I told her I’d gotten plenty of timely updates from you on the weather forum though!

Ha!  “Wow it’s snowing really hard in Stowe.” “I know honey, already seen photos of it.” “What? It’s 7am.” “I’ve got a guy.”

Yeah I do think it’s Bolton Mountain peak that triggered that one.  So there was one off Mansfield and one off Bolton.  I might dig into the soundings and stuff a bit later to try and look into what happened.  There’s a solid inversion aloft... to the point that Whiteface in NY and MWN were above the clouds this afternoon.  I think the inversion height played into it somehow.

Snowfall just picked up again at the house.  I cleared the board finally so we’ll see if we get more accumulation.  I do think if I cleared at 7am I could’ve added an inch or two more but I wanted to just track the depth.