NNE Cold Season Thread 2020-2021

[PhineasC]

31 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It does work for sure.... even in SNE that last storm was said to be a 100 to 1 chance hail mary with the "better pattern coming up behind it" and people starting to worry a bit.  There are definitely several cases of anxiety and worry then leading to a big event out of the blue.

You'll get it... I always go with climo.  Sooner or later it happens.  But I also bet you've had snow cover (even if just 2") up there at Jay more than anyone else on the forum since like October if you were to tally it up. It just hasn't been able to stick around yet.  Hopefully the GFS's two cutters don't come to pass in the longer term.

And here I thought I was going home for 10 days until the 21st and I'd miss the "epic pattern." Instead, I will miss the return of the garbage cutter pattern. Fine by me. I suspect my developing glacier here will survive it unless they are truly horrid like that last one. This storm seems like the perfect pack builder. Super wet snow that then freezes solid for the next 4-5 days.

[jculligan]

1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

The only way that is accurate is if it was “Gorham Heights” which is right across rt 2 from me. Some of those guys live a decent ways up the side of Pine Mountain and should have weather similar to here. That’s about as close to actual Gorham as I am. 

When I looked at the lat/lon coordinates for the 15" measurement in Gorham 44.2613, -71.2833 it actually brought me close to the Hermit Lake SNOTEL on the east side of Mount Washington. I'm not sure if that technically lies within the established boundaries of the town of Gorham, but if so it's pretty misleading for the number to be reported this way!

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, jculligan said:

When I looked at the lat/lon coordinates for the 15" measurement in Gorham 44.2613, -71.2833 it actually brought me close to the Hermit Lake SNOTEL on the east side of Mount Washington. I'm not sure if that technically lies within the established boundaries of the town of Gorham, but if so it's pretty misleading for the number to be reported this way!

OK, thanks for looking that up. That makes a ton of sense. Next time we have a storm, I will hike to the top of Mt Crescent or halfway up the slope of Madison (also part of the town) and report Randolph obs from there.

[backedgeapproaching]

1 minute ago, jculligan said:

When I looked at the lat/lon coordinates for the 15" measurement in Gorham 44.2613, -71.2833 it actually brought me close to the Hermit Lake SNOTEL on the east side of Mount Washington. I'm not sure if that technically lies within the established boundaries of the town of Gorham, but if so it's pretty misleading for the number to be reported this way!

That's interesting, I saw that CO-OP and thought no way that could be in Gorham, but maybe? 3800' there at that spot, probably not quite representative of most of the people who live in Gorham 

[PhineasC]

Just now, backedgeapproaching said:

That's interesting, I saw that CO-OP and thought no way that could be in Gorham, but maybe? 3800' there at that spot, probably not quite representative of most of the people who live in Gorham 

Maybe if one of the trailers along rt 2 detached from its footers and went airborne.

[backedgeapproaching]

18 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

Yeah, inch for inch I would guess we are about normal.  Maybe someone has the data, but there have been plenty of days with snow in the air.  The 10 days leading up to thanksgiving were pretty solid, but it all washed away that Wednesday and the biggest single total was probably that early upslope event that was just too early in the season. We have “cover” now, but I wouldn’t call it a pack.  I’m not worried, but do have to admit that I would like to get a solid event out of the way to start building the pack and get some help getting terrain open.  Jay just doesn’t have the fire power to blow their way to a big terrain expansion.  And those cutters in the long range make me nervous of losing anything we might start.  We need one of those to break for up here.  Once to January, above normal temps are fine because the averages are so low, as long as we don’t get dews in the 40s with rain and fog.  So I guess not nervous or complaining, but maybe anxious.  

Unless DEC 2015 comes walking through that door, no one has less worry than you in pretty much any subforum on AmWx east of the Mississippi .

Obliviously cutters still cut and suck for everyone and for base building, just hope there is no AK PIG.

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 0.5” Snow/0.02” L.E.

 

The snowfall gradually wound down this afternoon, so that might be it for this event, but I guess there are still potential lobes of mid-level moisture out there that might affect the area over the next 12 to 24 hours and indicated in the BTV NWS AFD:

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

621 PM EST Sun Dec 6 2020

 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

As of 612 PM EST Sunday...Cyclonic nw upslope flow prevails associated with mid/upper lvl trof acrs the ne conus from departing coastal system. Weak pieces of energy and lobes of slightly better mid lvl moisture continue to rotate thru our cwa for the next 12 to 24 hours. This general pattern will continue to produce on and off light snow showers acrs the favorable upslope regions of the northern dacks and central/northern Greens overnight into Monday.

 

Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.1 inches

New Liquid: Trace

Temperature: 27.9 F

Sky: Cloudy

Snow at the stake: Trace

[bwt3650]

15 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Unless DEC 2015 comes walking through that door, no one has less worry than you in pretty much any subforum on AmWx east of the Mississippi .

Obliviously cutters still cut and suck for everyone and for base building, just hope there is no AK PIG.

100 percent..but you know how it is early season when you are just watching for something big to get some major terrain expansion going.  Last year being cut short in mid March makes me really itch for some of my favorite runs.  We probably had 6-7 weeks of the season left if there were no prolonged torches..but point taken; if it’s mid Jan and I’m worrying about snow, we are all probably in a world of sh*t snow season wise.

[dendrite]

The Hermit Lake plot is technically in Sargent’s Purchase.

[PhineasC]

9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The Hermit Lake plot is technically in Sargent’s Purchase.

Very representative of a single story 2 bedroom cottage right on the banks of the Androscoggin in Gorham, I’m sure.

[backedgeapproaching]

45 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

100 percent..but you know how it is early season when you are just watching for something big to get some major terrain expansion going.  Last year being cut short in mid March makes me really itch for some of my favorite runs.  We probably had 6-7 weeks of the season left if there were no prolonged torches..but point taken; if it’s mid Jan and I’m worrying about snow, we are all probably in a world of sh*t snow season wise.

Oh, for sure.  Doesn't matter if you average 300" or 30" and live slope side or along the coast, early on everyone is looking for the first bigger event of the season.  Also, a rare opportunity that you get to be up at Jay full time and want to take advantage of your situation and get out on the hill as often as possible. 

[powderfreak]

2 hours ago, PhineasC said:

Hmm, I guess you are right. I have never looked that closely at the topo map over there. I know they do not seem to do as well with upslope just based on driving past there up to my house, which is a frequent occurrence. I swear it feels like I have to climb back up from there to my house in the car. But maybe it's just an illusion. I don't really know of any good obs from that area so impossible to say how they do on the averages. I'm sure there are little neighborhoods tucked here and there around the area that are snow heavens. Just need to have ORH_wxman tell you about them. LOL

Yeah every town in the mountains has its spots that go both ways usually.  I was surprised that RT 2 is around 1600ft there in Jefferson as it then drops to 1300-1400ft in Randolph before you start to rise up towards the Hill/Scates Corner or whatever it is.

RT 2 has some impressive elevation for quite a while there.  That’s pretty cool.

[LaGrangewx]

Always love reading through this thread. I haven’t been the most active on here but I keep up with reading for the inside scoop. I have lots of weather and snow related questions and figure you guys have great input. Was wondering what you guys thought hermit lake plot averages? 250? Or even more?
Also how do you think that compares to Chimney pond ranger station under Katahdin and the Lake Colden Ranger station in the Adk at 2800’ sandwiched in between Algonquin and Colden. I’ve always viewed those as the 3 big interior backcountry locations with at least some snow or depth reports. I know both chimney and hermit lake had about 100” depth in 2017 and Colden outpost routinely has 5-6 feet. I’ve hiked all over the ADK and just did Huntington Ravine and Katahdin this past September. Both were tremendously impressive. 
 

[mreaves]

24°/17° wind NW18G28   Pretty wintry feeling at KMPV

[powderfreak]

 I got up at 3am to piss and it was dumping out.  Went to bed with grass and woke up to this.

Its still dumping as of 6:30am.

Have almost 3” new snow so far.

There’s been a standing wave since like 3am coming off the summit of Mansfield but maxing out right over us here on RT 108.

[powderfreak]

I mean this takes meso-scale snow to a WHOLE new level.

This thing has sat as a standing wave downwind of Mansfield, redeveloping over and over, for almost 3 hours now.

Not a flake at the mountain, and maybe 3” in my yard so far.  It’s not even snowing at friend’s houses at other parts of town.  Like Mother Nature just put a few pixels overhead and said hey, let’s rip you out some snow.

[powderfreak]

WTF is going on?!

Gonna be pushing 3+ in town.

Then you drive a few miles UP the hill and the snowstorm disappears.  Nothing at the hill.  

 

[J.Spin]

39 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I mean this takes meso-scale snow to a WHOLE new level.

This thing has sat as a standing wave downwind of Mansfield, redeveloping over and over, for almost 3 hours now.

Not a flake at the mountain, and maybe 3” in my yard so far.  It’s not even snowing at friend’s houses at other parts of town.  Like Mother Nature just put a few pixels overhead and said hey, let’s rip you out some snow.

That’s pretty neat PF, even for around here in the mountains that’s pretty extreme localization!  Here at our site we’ve been getting similar light snow and flurries to what we experienced yesterday, with another tenth of an inch of accumulation overnight.

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 0.6” Snow/0.02” L.E.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.1 inches

New Liquid: Trace

Temperature: 24.8 F

Sky: Flurries

Snow at the stake: Trace

[powderfreak]

8 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

That’s pretty neat PF, even for around here in the mountains that’s pretty extreme localization!  Here at our site we’ve been getting similar light snow and flurries to what we experienced yesterday, with another tenth of an inch of accumulation overnight.

Yeah I don't think I've ever seen it this localized.  It's probably like a 3 mile by 3 mile box getting near Advisory level snows and then nothing outside of that.  Even going up the road by the time you get to Topnotch and Northern Lights the grass blades are showing.

The businesses around me on Mountain Road were getting plowed and RT 108 was in pretty poor shape.  Going to be some surprised skiers when they wake up to find 2.5-4" in parts of town... you assume the hill got 8".  And then to just have it disappear all together.

I saw it snowing at 3am and can't believe it was STILL just sitting there dropping near 1"/hr at 6am.  Just a standing wave off Mansfield's chin it seems like hitting RT 108.

[qg_omega]

PF, that’s crazy just checked the radar and it’s still going strong.  Reminds me of finger lake effect snow, with the mountain replacing the lake

[jculligan]

10 hours ago, LaGrangewx said:

Always love reading through this thread. I haven’t been the most active on here but I keep up with reading for the inside scoop. I have lots of weather and snow related questions and figure you guys have great input. Was wondering what you guys thought hermit lake plot averages? 250? Or even more?
Also how do you think that compares to Chimney pond ranger station under Katahdin and the Lake Colden Ranger station in the Adk at 2800’ sandwiched in between Algonquin and Colden. I’ve always viewed those as the 3 big interior backcountry locations with at least some snow or depth reports. I know both chimney and hermit lake had about 100” depth in 2017 and Colden outpost routinely has 5-6 feet. I’ve hiked all over the ADK and just did Huntington Ravine and Katahdin this past September. Both were tremendously impressive. 
 

Hermit Lake started archiving daily snowfall amounts back in early 2018, but due to the Covid shut-down last year they've only had one full winter of publicly-available observations so far. They measured 190" in the winter of 2018-2019 (compared to 261" on the summit) and they were up to 175" on 4/13 last year before reporting stopped (compared to 253" on the summit). It's unfortunate that reporting stopped in mid April this year, because unusually heavy snowfall continued in the alpine for about another month after that. But regardless, based on the last two winters it seems that Hermit Lake averages about 70-75% of the summit's seasonal snowfall...which would correlate to an average of approximately 215" or 220". Again, this is based on a very limited data set...but it's all we really have to work with at the moment.

I've been skiing the east side of Mount Washington on a very regular basis since 2013 and it's not at all uncommon for the peak seasonal depth to eclipse 90" in that location. It's a very impressive spot. I can't speak to the other locations you've noted, though I would imagine Hermit Lake has a higher average due to its elevation (nearly 3900' compared to 2800' at Lake Colden and 2900' at Chimney Pond). Maybe others in this thread can speak more to that!

[powderfreak]

43 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

PF, that’s crazy just checked the radar and it’s still going strong.  Reminds me of finger lake effect snow, with the mountain replacing the lake

My wife says its still snowing steadily at home and the driveway was just plowed, lol.  Nothing happening here at 1,500ft.

Miss the good event but get rewarded with a micro-sized advisory level event over like a few square miles.  It is like a small streamer that the summit of Mansfield must be setting off because it is occurring directly downwind of the 4,395 peak.   At least we'll enjoy some snow cover this week.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

PF with the early Xmas gift 

The Radar loop is fascinating , does the Worcester range to the East play a roll in keeping it stationary?

[ORH_wxman]

13 hours ago, PhineasC said:

In my limited experience, that's what I have seen. Already seen several occasions in marginal setups where they are couple degrees warmer than me and still a mix yet it's snowing up on Randolph Hill. 

The old Jefferson coops and the NORHC snow map archives showed a clear decrease of snowfall into Jefferson vs Randolph on the other side of Pilot/Pliny range.NE wind def downslopes them and they don't have the CAD capacity that further east does.

[alex]

Light snow continues, but not adding much. 0.4" since the last measurement

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

The old Jefferson coops and the NORHC snow map archives showed a clear decrease of snowfall into Jefferson vs Randolph on the other side of Pilot/Pliny range.NE wind def downslopes them and they don't have the CAD capacity that further east does.

I figured you’d be able to clarify the situation. 

[powderfreak]

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The old Jefferson coops and the NORHC snow map archives showed a clear decrease of snowfall into Jefferson vs Randolph on the other side of Pilot/Pliny range.NE wind def downslopes them and they don't have the CAD capacity that further east does.

Yeah makes sense.  Was just mentioning it's not a matter of elevation.  Most of NNH is at a pretty substantial elevation outside of the immediate river valley bottoms.  Every town seems to have inhabited areas 1,500-2,000ft regardless up there.

[powderfreak]

My wife just measured "about 4 inches" (take that with a grain of salt from her) at 750ft ha.

Looks like at 7am the Lower Village came in with 2.9" on 0.18" water.

Still nothing at 1,500ft. 

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, jculligan said:

Hermit Lake started archiving daily snowfall amounts back in early 2018, but due to the Covid shut-down last year they've only had one full winter of publicly-available observations so far. They measured 190" in the winter of 2018-2019 (compared to 261" on the summit) and they were up to 175" on 4/13 last year before reporting stopped (compared to 253" on the summit). It's unfortunate that reporting stopped in mid April this year, because unusually heavy snowfall continued in the alpine for about another month after that. But regardless, based on the last two winters it seems that Hermit Lake averages about 70-75% of the summit's seasonal snowfall...which would correlate to an average of approximately 215" or 220". Again, this is based on a very limited data set...but it's all we really have to work with at the moment.

I've been skiing the east side of Mount Washington on a very regular basis since 2013 and it's not at all uncommon for the peak seasonal depth to eclipse 90" in that location. It's a very impressive spot. I can't speak to the other locations you've noted, though I would imagine Hermit Lake has a higher average due to its elevation (nearly 3900' compared to 2800' at Lake Colden and 2900' at Chimney Pond). Maybe others in this thread can speak more to that!

Chimney Pond is perhaps 110 miles farther north than Hermit Lake, which might affect their relative snowfall.  Chimney reached 94" in 2017, knocking Farmington's 84" out of the lead it had held for 48 years.