J.Spin Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 20 hours ago, backedgeapproaching said: I honestly don't think I have ever stayed up for the 0z Euro run unless I was already awake. It's not going to change when I wake up at 6am. I concur; the same output will be there in the morning, and the storm happens whether you look at the models or not. I like to check out the models to get a heads up ahead of the regular forecast for when snow’s potentially coming to ski, but I’m not heavily into the tracking. We’ve literally got paid professionals (that we’re paying with our tax dollars) at the BTV NWS to take care of that for us, and they’re pretty damn good at it. Once they put out their projected accumulations maps, they give you a pretty solid idea of what’s going to happen. I’ve been a bit busy this week to follow this next storm too closely, but it looks like we’ve got the potential for a few inches over here in our neck of the woods. I see the latest run of the GFS has the upslope hanging around for a few frames in the Northern Greens as the storm departs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted December 4, 2020 Author Share Posted December 4, 2020 18Z NAM cuts me (Plymouth NH) down to 1.20 from 1.94 at 12Z. It doesn't matter to most, either your in the heavy qpf or not but the steep gradient seems to be wavering right through my area with each model run. Will make a big difference with marginal temperatures during the first part of the event. Wish it was either a hit or a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Shame this thing is so compact doesn't blow up a little sooner. The track itself over/near the cape is usually a pretty good one for the far western zones. Just goes boom little too late it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 22 minutes ago, J.Spin said: We’ve literally got paid professionals (that we’re paying with our tax dollars) at the BTV NWS to take care of that for us, and they’re pretty damn good at it. Once they put out their projected accumulations maps, they give you a pretty solid idea of what’s going to happen. Actually, on that note, I see that the BTV NWS has their maps out for this upcoming system. We’re under a Winter Weather Advisory here in Washington County, as it looks like we’re on the western edge of the system with the current guidance. The projected accumulation map shows quite the accumulation gradient from east to west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Flurries here. Forecast is for 12-18. Things are good. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 17 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Flurries here. Forecast is for 12-18. Things are good. Nice dude, enjoy your first of many there. Cheers to that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 6-8 up here? I’m guessing not all that is from the storm or includes today, as it looks like I’m a little bit too far west, though the 3k has close to that. Phin is the big winner. Lets see if he can keep this pack until April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted December 5, 2020 Author Share Posted December 5, 2020 East ticks continue. I have seen this movie many times before. It pounds in Eastern NH while the band makes very little headway west. Maybe 12Z suite will reverse the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 If only it was a bit colder. Some nice orographic precip going on this evening. SW flow standing wave pattern with the High Peaks in the Adirondacks causing that shadow through BTV. Still looks like it’s pretty mild through 1500ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 10 minutes ago, powderfreak said: If only it was a bit colder. Some nice orographic precip going on this evening. SW flow standing wave pattern with the High Peaks in the Adirondacks causing that shadow through BTV. Still looks like it’s pretty mild through 1500ft. I am getting light rain here. There may be some flakes mixed. It looks like really "thick" rain and kinda gloopy in the light. 34 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 12 minutes ago, PhineasC said: I am getting light rain here. There may be some flakes mixed. It looks like really "thick" rain and kinda gloopy in the light. 34 degrees. Yeah web cams at the ski area look like essentially rain... maybe white rain. Snowing up high... clumpy wet aggregates based on the texture. Almost 2” at 3,000ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Sloppy Snow here at 1900’. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Definitely more snow mixed in now. I can see the line dropping on radar over the whites. Should flip at some point here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 If this things slows down in the Gulf of Maine it could be really good for us. Those tend to be our really good upslope events 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 22 minutes ago, alex said: If this things slows down in the Gulf of Maine it could be really good for us. Those tend to be our really good upslope events Yep, I have noticed the recent runs that miss us with some of the synoptic stuff keep upslope overhead for a long while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 10 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Yep, I have noticed the recent runs that miss us with some of the synoptic stuff keep upslope overhead for a long while. Those are the storms when the synoptic part is over and it seems like it wasn't a big deal , then the wind shift and it turns into a huge hit. They're a lot of fun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 5 minutes ago, alex said: Those are the storms when the synoptic part is over and it seems like it wasn't a big deal , then the wind shift and it turns into a huge hit. They're a lot of fun. What are we talking in terms of extra snow? This is of course different with a large bombing low pull down moisture on NW winds. Seems like a good setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 8 minutes ago, PhineasC said: What are we talking in terms of extra snow? This is of course different with a large bombing low pull down moisture on NW winds. Seems like a good setup. It depends of course but my guess is that it's usually close to 50/50 - you get like 8-10 of heavy synoptic and then another 8-10 of progressively fluffier snow. The first batch often has a lot of wind associated with it, then it calms down so the second half can look a lot better in terms of scenery. At least that's my unscientific weenie memory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 6 minutes ago, alex said: It depends of course but my guess is that it's usually close to 50/50 - you get like 8-10 of heavy synoptic and then another 8-10 of progressively fluffier snow. The first batch often has a lot of wind associated with it, then it calms down so the second half can look a lot better in terms of scenery. At least that's my unscientific weenie memory Nice forecast. Hopefully your memory holds. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jculligan Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Started as rain here. 37/33 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 14 hours ago, PhineasC said: Flurries here. Forecast is for 12-18. Things are good. We’re all pulling for you Phin – we want you to relieve that stress you’ve been putting yourself under to get that first substantial synoptic snow at your NH spot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 I’ve got the latest BTV NWS maps below. It looks like they’ve pushed things east a bit from the previous update, with some of the Winter Storm Warnings from the previous map being switched to Winter Weather Advisories, and the projected accumulations similarly moving eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jculligan Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Precipitation beginning to pick up a bit, but it's still rain for now. 36/33. I think the steadier stuff moves in around 10am so hopefully we flip in another hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 On my way to Conway. Started as mixed in Bretton Woods, all snow a few hundred feet up at the Highland Center, and plain from half way down the Notch to Bartlett Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 I’m all light snow here now. 33 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted December 5, 2020 Author Share Posted December 5, 2020 36.2F Light rain with catpaws. Temp slowly falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Good luck NH and ME peeps-hope for a nice burial for you guys/girls. As JSpin posted above, fringe city on this one for most Vermonters. KLW near the border probably has the best chance of something more substantial. 35.8F and -RA now here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 This was really hurts enjoy the snow from NH to Maine, another very tough start to the ski year in NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted December 5, 2020 Author Share Posted December 5, 2020 35.0/33 .10" rain so far. Mix of rain and snow. Keeps going back and forth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 41 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said: Good luck NH and ME peeps-hope for a nice burial for you guys/girls. As JSpin posted above, fringe city on this one for most Vermonters. KLW near the border probably has the best chance of something more substantial. 35.8F and -RA now here. I figured as the winds shift NW a death band will get jammed up against the northern greens, at least. I am still learning climo around here, but that just seems like something I'd expect to see later on with this event, accompanied by highly-accurate J. Spin obs piling up the totals. LOL I will keep an eye out on radar for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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