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NNE Cold Season Thread 2020-2021


wxeyeNH
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20 hours ago, backedgeapproaching said:

I honestly don't think I have ever stayed up for the 0z Euro run unless I was already awake.  It's not going to change when I wake up at 6am.

I concur; the same output will be there in the morning, and the storm happens whether you look at the models or not.

I like to check out the models to get a heads up ahead of the regular forecast for when snow’s potentially coming to ski, but I’m not heavily into the tracking.  We’ve literally got paid professionals (that we’re paying with our tax dollars) at the BTV NWS to take care of that for us, and they’re pretty damn good at it.  Once they put out their projected accumulations maps, they give you a pretty solid idea of what’s going to happen.

I’ve been a bit busy this week to follow this next storm too closely, but it looks like we’ve got the potential for a few inches over here in our neck of the woods.  I see the latest run of the GFS has the upslope hanging around for a few frames in the Northern Greens as the storm departs.

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18Z NAM cuts me  (Plymouth NH) down to 1.20 from 1.94 at 12Z.   It doesn't matter to most, either your in the heavy qpf or not but the steep gradient seems to be wavering right through my area with each model run.  Will make a big difference with marginal temperatures during the first part of the event.   Wish it was either a hit or a miss.

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22 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

We’ve literally got paid professionals (that we’re paying with our tax dollars) at the BTV NWS to take care of that for us, and they’re pretty damn good at it.  Once they put out their projected accumulations maps, they give you a pretty solid idea of what’s going to happen.

Actually, on that note, I see that the BTV NWS has their maps out for this upcoming system.  We’re under a Winter Weather Advisory here in Washington County, as it looks like we’re on the western edge of the system with the current guidance.  The projected accumulation map shows quite the accumulation gradient from east to west.

04DEC20A.jpg

04DEC20B.jpg

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10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

If only it was a bit colder.  Some nice orographic precip going on this evening.  SW flow standing wave pattern with the High Peaks in the Adirondacks causing that shadow through BTV.

Still looks like it’s pretty mild through 1500ft.

09564CB9-3BAA-4AF7-BCCC-FA4366466708.gif.4fe902d7a368937e0e15660fe41c4b13.gif

I am getting light rain here. There may be some flakes mixed. It looks like really "thick" rain and kinda gloopy in the light. 34 degrees.

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12 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I am getting light rain here. There may be some flakes mixed. It looks like really "thick" rain and kinda gloopy in the light. 34 degrees.

Yeah web cams at the ski area look like essentially rain... maybe white rain.

Snowing up high... clumpy wet aggregates based on the texture.  Almost 2” at 3,000ft.

019D8FE7-82A3-4063-8CFB-218B83AFE931.jpeg.6c1a7542f5feed4a44b40f99c19e50e6.jpeg

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10 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Yep, I have noticed the recent runs that miss us with some of the synoptic stuff keep upslope overhead for a long while. 

Those are the storms when the synoptic part is over and it seems like it wasn't a big deal , then the wind shift and it turns into a huge hit. They're a lot of fun. 

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5 minutes ago, alex said:

Those are the storms when the synoptic part is over and it seems like it wasn't a big deal , then the wind shift and it turns into a huge hit. They're a lot of fun. 

What are we talking in terms of extra snow? This is of course different with a large bombing low pull down moisture on NW winds. Seems like a good setup.

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8 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

What are we talking in terms of extra snow? This is of course different with a large bombing low pull down moisture on NW winds. Seems like a good setup.

It depends of course but my guess is that it's usually close to 50/50 - you get like 8-10 of heavy synoptic and then another 8-10 of progressively fluffier snow. The first batch often has a lot of wind associated with it, then it calms down so the second half can look a lot better in terms of scenery. 

At least that's my unscientific weenie memory 

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6 minutes ago, alex said:

It depends of course but my guess is that it's usually close to 50/50 - you get like 8-10 of heavy synoptic and then another 8-10 of progressively fluffier snow. The first batch often has a lot of wind associated with it, then it calms down so the second half can look a lot better in terms of scenery. 

At least that's my unscientific weenie memory 

Nice forecast. :) 

Hopefully your memory holds. LOL

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41 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Good luck NH and ME peeps-hope for a nice burial for you guys/girls. As JSpin posted above, fringe city on this one for most Vermonters. KLW near the border probably has the best chance of something more substantial.

35.8F and -RA now here.

I figured as the winds shift NW a death band will get jammed up against the northern greens, at least. I am still learning climo around here, but that just seems like something I'd expect to see later on with this event, accompanied by highly-accurate J. Spin obs piling up the totals. LOL

I will keep an eye out on radar for it.

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