NNE Cold Season Thread 2020-2021

[Hitman]

I should know better than to get my hopes up but I've been quarantining and figured the weather gods would toss me a bone for the effort.

[backedgeapproaching]

31 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Could be a NNE forum divider for sure, although Maine needs this one. I could end up on the outside looking in if this keeps sliding east. 

Well, yea someone is almost always going to get screwed during miller As/Bs. Too much geographical area to cover in NNE for everyone to he happy. 

 DEC 2003 and maybe a couple others that hit the majority of the region. 

You, Wxeye, Alex, guy in Jackson over to Maine look decent. You guys in NH all have over 1K in elevation. Maine guys don't have the elevation, but closer to the intense precip to flip.

[bwt3650]

50 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Could be a NNE forum divider for sure, although Maine needs this one. I could end up on the outside looking in if this keeps sliding east. 

You're looking good for your first true snow up there.  Enjoy man...hopefully PF and my area can score some up-slope scraps after this thing passes. 

[backedgeapproaching]

ALY hoisted a watch for SVT.  That's coming down tomorrow AM I would think without wholesale changes.

[jculligan]

4 hours ago, PhineasC said:

Could be a NNE forum divider for sure, although Maine needs this one. I could end up on the outside looking in if this keeps sliding east. 

Not if the gfs has anything to say about it. The upslope signature Saturday night is outrageous for northern NH on the latest run. You definitely are not in the synoptic jackpot, but it almost looks like there's a double QPF max - one from southeastern NH up through adjacent southwestern ME, and another squarely over the upslope regions on the northern/western slopes of the Whites. I lose in this scenario (in a relative sense).

Still a good 36 hours to go, but I honestly feel pretty good about where we are sitting with this one. Models will continue to fluctuate from one run to the next, but I don't think it's very likely that we miss out on our first real event of the season.

[PhineasC]

8 minutes ago, jculligan said:

Not if the gfs has anything to say about it. The upslope signature Saturday night is outrageous for northern NH on the latest run. You definitely are not in the synoptic jackpot, but it almost looks like there's a double QPF max - one from southeastern NH up through adjacent southwestern ME, and another squarely over the upslope regions on the northern/western slopes of the Whites. I lose in this scenario (in a relative sense).

Still a good 36 hours to go, but I honestly feel pretty good about where we are sitting with this one. Models will continue to fluctuate from one run to the next, but I don't think it's very likely that we miss out on our first real event of the season.

Yeah that GFS run was great. These random total whiff runs even from the JV models always spook me. 

[powderfreak]

17 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Yeah that GFS run was great. These random total whiff runs even from the JV models always spook me. 

Ha, I think it'll be fun to compare your attitude now vs. like 3-4 years from now.  In a few years you'll be like "yeah, looks like it might snow some, we'll see but it usually does" instead of swinging from run to run.

With that said, I still think there's a real chance if that southern stream slows down any further you get the 18z NAM solution where it stays separated until the very last minute and then it's too late.  You want to see this hold steady and hold hard at 00z/06z tomorrow.  I know some in SNE may not feel the same way but I always want to risk being on the rain/snow line instead of the other way around.  Gives you wiggle room east.  Too many of us have seen those HRRR ticks east (so much so they have a name "Messenger Shuffle") when the poster Messenger on Cape Cod always would find the actual low pressure buoy readings going northeast of where models had it, LOL.

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Ha, I think it'll be fun to compare your attitude now vs. like 3-4 years from now.  In a few years you'll be like "yeah, looks like it might snow some, we'll see but it usually does" instead of swinging from run to run.

With that said, I still think there's a real chance if that southern stream slows down any further you get the 18z NAM solution where it stays separated until the very last minute and then it's too late.  You want to see this hold steady and hold hard at 00z/06z tomorrow.

It will take years to shake the trauma of being a snow lover in the southern coastal plain. 

[powderfreak]

10 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

It will take years to shake the trauma of being a snow lover in the southern coastal plain. 

Ha, I bet.  It's palpable but you'll figure it out, it snows when it wants to snow and in the end it'll be more than most people.

But you'll also "lose" and others will get more at times, no matter how much we want to jackpot all the time.  In the end, the inches accumulated tell the story though.

[backedgeapproaching]

It is pretty funny, extreme angst with every model run like its the one and only chance of any type of significant snow in a place that averages 150"+..lol.  That angst is 100% justified in the MId-Atl, maybe even SNE coast to some degree.

I honestly don't think I have ever stayed up for the 0z Euro run unless I was already awake.  It's not going to change when I wake up at 6am.  

 

[PhineasC]

21 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

It is pretty funny, extreme angst with every model run like its the one and only chance of any type of significant snow in a place that averages 150"+..lol.  That angst is 100% justified in the MId-Atl, maybe even SNE coast to some degree.

I honestly don't think I have ever stayed up for the 0z Euro run unless I was already awake.  It's not going to change when I wake up at 6am.  

 

I do enjoy tracking. I think I will feel better once the first one is under my belt. Been a lot of waiting all summer and fall. 

[backedgeapproaching]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

I do enjoy tracking. I think I will feel better once the first one is under my belt. Been a lot of waiting all summer and fall. 

I love the tracking too, it's a part of the snow weenie handbook, I just won't  stay up all night for the 3am NAM runs or whatever..lol.

But, I grew up not too far from your spot in MD in extreme SE PA, I know the drill.

[PhineasC]

3 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

I love the tracking too, it's a part of the snow weenie handbook, I just won't  stay up all night for the 3am NAM runs or whatever..lol.

But, I grew up not too far from your spot in MD in extreme SE PA, I know the drill.

Yeah, down there, missing a storm like this is an epic fail and may mean you go a decade of crappy winters before you get another shot. 

[mreaves]

It’s funny, I rarely get anxious about any single event, I get anxious about entire seasons. Will it stay cold enough, can we avoid big meltdowns and cutters, will the snowpack actually be a usable depth etc.  when the activities you enjoy have no access to snowmaking, the tenor of a season can be the bigger worry. 

[alex]

A little light snow this morning 

[powderfreak]

12 hours ago, PhineasC said:

I do enjoy tracking. I think I will feel better once the first one is under my belt. Been a lot of waiting all summer and fall. 

True.  Large investment to get to the snow, I get the desire to just get it out of the way to make sure your money was well spent LOL.  I could see that adding some extra desire to get 'er done.  "I didn't move to the middle of no where because I liked the vibe in Berlin."

[wxeyeNH]

I have not paid attention to today's rain and snow showers.  I see the snow is right over Phin's head in the cam.   Our house cleaner is coming and we want to be out of the house so might take the drone up to Franconia Notch and fly up to "The Watcher"  if it is not precipitating.

Still don't have a good feeling about tomorrow's storm.  Wish the models would back it west at least 50 miles.  Today's trends will be key.

[PhineasC]

Looking like all systems go for tomorrow for the Whites. 12”+

[jculligan]

27 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Looking like all systems go for tomorrow for the Whites. 12”+

I agree, I think we're sitting in a good position for this one. I do think the valley will struggle with efficient accumulation rates during the daytime tomorrow - I can envision temps hovering around 33/34F with a non-accumulating wet snow in North Conway for a good portion of the day, but up here at 1500' I think I'll be ok. The good stuff doesn't appear to move in until right around dusk, so the combination of nightfall plus an increase in rates due to the heavier band rotating in will probably allow all elevations to crash to 32F with a good thump that'll last well into the evening. In my opinion, the real show will be from about 4pm until 10pm-11pm or so. 

Psyched for my first real event in my new location!! I'm as much a ski weenie as I am a wx weenie, and my bread and butter is truly backcountry skiing...so I'm excited that this will be a nice dense snow to establish a good base for future riding. I'm sure there will be folks that attempt to ski the Cog on Sunday, and tempting as it may be...I have no interest in risking injury when we have such a long BC season up here. Last season I skied Hillman's Highway (Mount Washington) on June 15th so there's plenty of time, though I am so ready lol.

[Boston Bulldog]

How's the wind in the Whites looking on Sunday after this storm pulls away?

[jculligan]

6 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said:

How's the wind in the Whites looking on Sunday after this storm pulls away?

Depends how high you're looking to get! I anticipate a steady 50+ mph above treeline for basically the entire day Sunday. MWN will likely gust 100+ as it often does following these events. Below treeline it'll obviously be much more tame, but I still anticipate many locations gusting 30-40 mph throughout the day...with temps in the 20s and on/off snow showers. Definitely a wintry day.

[Boston Bulldog]

Just now, jculligan said:

Depends how high you're looking to get! I anticipate a steady 50+ mph above treeline for basically the entire day Sunday. MWN will likely gust 100+ as it often does following these events. Below treeline it'll obviously be much more tame, but I still anticipate many locations gusting 30-40 mph throughout the day...with temps in the 20s and on/off snow showers. Definitely a wintry day.

Ha, a little too early in the season for any backcountry excursions in the Presidentials for me! Debating between sunday or monday to reserve a day at Loon via IKON, but definitely aware wind hold issues may be prevalent on sunday. Tough choice rn

[jculligan]

17 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said:

Ha, a little too early in the season for any backcountry excursions in the Presidentials for me! Debating between sunday or monday to reserve a day at Loon via IKON, but definitely aware wind hold issues may be prevalent on sunday. Tough choice rn

Yeah the backcountry is "thin" to say the least, and while this storm will be good I don't think it'll be enough for me to be comfortable getting out there. Too many sharks in the water, and I'm definitely not looking to injure myself on the first time out when I will likely be skiing for the next 5-6 months ha. I would definitely anticipate wind issues on Sunday, so if you can bag work on Monday that's probably the better bet. Plus they'll have the guns blasting all day Sunday/Sunday night so it's likely you'll have more open terrain on Monday anyway.

[PhineasC]

These 12z runs are looking bonkers here. 

[jculligan]

43 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

These 12z runs are looking bonkers here. 

Sign me up for the 12z NAM please!!

Absolute crush job as the CCB buries itself into the eastern slope and rots in place over the course of tomorrow night. With wind and falling temps that's an all-out blizzard here. Probably overdone, but one can dream.

[wxeyeNH]

2 hours ago, Boston Bulldog said:

How's the wind in the Whites looking on Sunday after this storm pulls away?

Whites on Sunday will have snow showers and squalls, temperatures in the 20's at lower elevations with strong NW winds.  Blowing and drifting snow

[wxeyeNH]

52 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

These 12z runs are looking bonkers here. 

They certainly are.  I was worried yesterday with the east trend that NH would be left mostly out but 12Z shows everything coming back west.  As long as the Euro does it is game on.

Lower elevations especially in my area may briefly start as rain.  This will be a heavy wet snow at first with potential for power outages with strong NE winds.  As low departs the snow will become drier with more blowing and drifting.  It will be interesting to see how you and Alex do with the synoptic part but don't fret.  Some of the heaviest snow comes in your area as low is departing and upslope begins.  

Say good bye to bare ground.  You will see it again come April

[PhineasC]

3 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

They certainly are.  I was worried yesterday with the east trend that NH would be left mostly out but 12Z shows everything coming back west.  As long as the Euro does it is game on.

Lower elevations especially in my area may briefly start as rain.  This will be a heavy wet snow at first with potential for power outages with strong NE winds.  As low departs the snow will become drier with more blowing and drifting.  It will be interesting to see how you and Alex do with the synoptic part but don't fret.  Some of the heaviest snow comes in your area as low is departing and upslope begins.  

Say good bye to bare ground.  You will see it again come April

The models all show a finger of max snowfall extending from the east right over my house.   

[#NoPoles]

I'm not sure how I feel about those maps showing 20+ inches

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, #NoPoles said:

I'm not sure how I feel about those maps showing 20+ inches

You should feel elation and great happiness.