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NNE Cold Season Thread 2020-2021


wxeyeNH
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Crazy variability across the models in terms of this weekend's event. I've been thinking the Euro is over-amped, and it appears to be trending closer to the GFS/Canadian solution on the 06z run. Regardless of any model solution at the moment, I have a feeling many of us will have a net gain in snowcover by the time the event is over on Sunday (if nothing else, based on climo alone) - but it may be a bumpy/messy way of getting there for some. The 06z GFS/NAM pretty much suggest a miss, but I think the answer likely lies somewhere between that and the over-aggressive Euro solution. Still a lot of time to watch it.

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37 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I love a good melt in the NNE thread.

Be nice or I am going to send you back to your SNE cage....

I have not looked at models since yesterday.  Then it looked like the Euro was way west with another cutter.  Now we could be too far west according to the GFS.  Trend is east.  This is why I don't invest too much time dissect each model run days out.

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1 hour ago, mreaves said:

The yard is actually coated.  Somewhere between a trace and tenth?

yes it was a nice surprise to see white out there this morning. we picked up the same, less than 1/2 inch definitely, but enough that the ground and cars are covered. I drove about 30 seconds down the hill and there was no snow 

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57 minutes ago, mreaves said:

The yard is actually coated.  Somewhere between a trace and tenth?

I didn’t see any sort accumulation around here this morning aside from what appeared to be some leftover frozen drops from yesterday’s precipitation.  We’ve got some flakes around now though, so the atmosphere is definitely back into a snow profile.

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34.5F  Light snow vis 2-3 miles

Nice Euro run.  This is how NNE gets it done.  975mb low coming north

2-3 feet for most.

Lock it in!

(of course just like yesterday's Euro cutter track this will probably not happen as shown but we know there will be a storm and someone will jack in New England)  nice to have something to track.

Here is Kuchera clown map.  Subtract 1" or so from today's nonsense.

nnneee1.jpg

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This morning's Euro run has me thinking about historical extreme snowfalls in my area. Not sure if others have used https://xmacis.rcc-acic.org before, but this is my go-to website for climo stuff. It has hundreds of sites throughout the area, but it can be difficult to find some that have lengthy and/or continuous periods of record.

In any event, I was able to find an observation spot in North Conway that dates back to 1974. Unfortunately, this is about 1000' lower than my location but these are the top 10 snowfalls in the valley since the mid '70s:

image.png.018c203bf831e6b16322fae4f0cec1f4.png

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1 minute ago, jculligan said:

This morning's Euro run has me thinking about historical extreme snowfalls in my area. Not sure if others have used https://xmacis.rcc-acic.org before, but this is my go-to website for climo stuff. It has hundreds of sites throughout the area, but it can be difficult to find some that have lengthy and/or continuous periods of record.

In any event, I was able to find an observation spot in North Conway that dates back to 1974. Unfortunately, this is about 1000' lower than my location but these are the top 10 snowfalls in the valley since the mid '70s:

image.png.018c203bf831e6b16322fae4f0cec1f4.png

I noticed at least for Randolph that you have to look at things in 3 day chunks to get a real feel for the storm totals since the biggies often come in phases and there is often upslope afterwards for a few days to pad totals. I will need to see about Randolph’s top 24 hour total. 

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4 minutes ago, jculligan said:

This morning's Euro run has me thinking about historical extreme snowfalls in my area. Not sure if others have used https://xmacis.rcc-acic.org before, but this is my go-to website for climo stuff. It has hundreds of sites throughout the area, but it can be difficult to find some that have lengthy and/or continuous periods of record.

In any event, I was able to find an observation spot in North Conway that dates back to 1974. Unfortunately, this is about 1000' lower than my location but these are the top 10 snowfalls in the valley since the mid '70s:

image.png.018c203bf831e6b16322fae4f0cec1f4.png

Yeah your top storms in Jackson will be way better than N Conway. 

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

I noticed at least for Randolph that you have to look at things in 3 day chunks to get a real feel for the storm totals since the biggies often come in phases and there is often upslope afterwards for a few days to pad totals. I will need to see about Randolph’s top 24 hour total. 

Some of those long duration firehose storms give almost grotesque snowfall totals there. Like I think the late February 2010 storm put up some ridiculous number in Randolph. 

 

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December 2003 comes to mind as a storm that may have pummeled this area. That storm delivered 52" to Pinkham Notch, which is less than 10 miles from here as the crow flies. Of course that was a storm that featured insane mesoscale banding, so there were likely some pretty extreme spatial differences that could have cut totals here in half. 

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14 minutes ago, jculligan said:

This morning's Euro run has me thinking about historical extreme snowfalls in my area. Not sure if others have used https://xmacis.rcc-acic.org before, but this is my go-to website for climo stuff. It has hundreds of sites throughout the area, but it can be difficult to find some that have lengthy and/or continuous periods of record.

In any event, I was able to find an observation spot in North Conway that dates back to 1974. Unfortunately, this is about 1000' lower than my location but these are the top 10 snowfalls in the valley since the mid '70s:

image.png.018c203bf831e6b16322fae4f0cec1f4.png

Oh that’s only 24-hour snow... I was going to say that area has to have 20”+ storm totals.

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6 minutes ago, jculligan said:

December 2003 comes to mind as a storm that may have pummeled this area. That storm delivered 52" to Pinkham Notch, which is less than 10 miles from here as the crow flies. Of course that was a storm that featured insane mesoscale banding, so there were likely some pretty extreme spatial differences that could have cut totals here in half. 

Which Dec 2003 storm?

There were several... I think the mid-Dec 2003 one gave the Jay Peak coop at 2,000ft like 42” in 24 hours.  Plattsburgh, NY had 36”.  That was a crazy meso-scale band.

Edit:  Now that I think about it that band might have been too far north for Pinkham.

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Just now, powderfreak said:

Which Dec 2003 storm?

There were several... I think the mid-Dec 2003 one gave the Jay Peak coop at 2,000ft like 42” in 24 hours.

It was the first event from 5-7 December 2003. I forgot there was a second! I was an undergrad at Plymouth State that month, and I think we got 10" and 12" from both events before it all washed away in a Grinch storm before Christmas. 

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2 minutes ago, jculligan said:

It was the first event from 5-7 December 2003. I forgot there was a second! I was an undergrad at Plymouth State that month, and I think we got 10" and 12" from both events before it all washed away in a Grinch storm before Christmas. 

Yeah now thinking about it that would’ve been too far north for Pinkham.  I’m thinking of like Dec 13-16 in that range I think.

City of Plattsburgh, NY had 36”, BTV only like 20” as the band sat from like SLK to Jay Peak to far NNH.  If I’m remembering it right that might have been the storm an observer in SLK area had like 17” in 5 hours.

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