NNE Cold Season Thread 2020-2021

[PhineasC]

37 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Parts of the whites and western Maine look to really ring out that precip w SE flow , in winter sometimes this flow can be white ..this time not so much, 2.5-4” Thru Thursday morning on Ukie 

Yeah it’s awesome. I really hope the second storm around the 5th trends better. Two more driving rainstorms would be hard to take. 

[qg_omega]

Just now, PhineasC said:

Yeah it’s awesome. I really hope the second storm around the 5th trends better. Two more driving rainstorms would be hard to take. 

[J.Spin]

3 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Briefly flipped to wet snow at 1,500ft and almost 1" at 3,300ft.

Its pretty marginal, seems to be flipping back and forth with intensity.

 

41 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

We keep flipping back and forth at 1500ft.  Literally every 30 seconds it seems.  All snow more consistently above 1800ft.

Yeah, we’re getting frozen even down here at 500’, and I popped on to the thread because we just had our first transient accumulation from this event.  Not surprisingly, we start to accumulate when the precipitation is most intense, like with that batch that’s pushing through now:

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, PhineasC said:

Yeah it’s awesome. I really hope the second storm around the 5th trends better. Two more driving rainstorms would be hard to take. 

In the “gradient winter “ of 2018-2019 Nashua had about 15-18 of those rain storms , meanwhile S Canada to Central Vermont and over to your area cashed in “bigly”

Pattern blows except maybe for N NY till after that second storm i think 

[J.Spin]

53 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

We keep flipping back and forth at 1500ft.  Literally every 30 seconds it seems.  All snow more consistently above 1800ft.

Checking the base webcam at Bolton Valley at ~2,100’, it was definitely pounding all snow with those more intense echoes.  This system (BTV NWS says a weak surface cold front with upper level trough) has always shown a mix of precipitation types on the models, so it looks like it’s playing out as expected.  Our forecast down here in the valley is generally rain during the day, but snow works its way into the forecast as we head into the evening and the temperatures come down, so I guess we’ll see how far the snow levels drop as we progress through this storm.

[PhineasC]

38 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

It looks bad now but it’s 200 hours out on operational models. Not worried about it until the early week storm gets out of the way. 

[wxeyeNH]

42F  Light to moderate rain shower just passed.  Looking at the Cannon NH cam it's snowing pretty good at 4000 feet.  White Mountains should be snowcapped tomorrow above 2500 feet or so.  Weather wise tomorrow looks like the last good day for awhile.  I have not been on the boards today and haven't read any comments but a quick look at the 12Z GFS does show the second cutter trending east.  960mb low over New England is very impressive although it is 200 hours out

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, J.Spin said:

Checking the base webcam at Bolton Valley at ~2,100’, it was definitely pounding all snow with those more intense echoes.  This system (BTV NWS says a weak surface cold front with upper level trough) has always shown a mix of precipitation types on the models, so it looks like it’s playing out as expected.  Our forecast down here in the valley is generally rain during the day, but snow works its way into the forecast as we head into the evening and the temperatures come down, so I guess we’ll see how far the snow levels drop as we progress through this storm.

2" at the Lookout snow cam.

Accumulating snow level on my afternoon ski runs was around 2,200ft.

[J.Spin]

3 hours ago, PhineasC said:

It looks bad now but it’s 200 hours out on operational models. Not worried about it until the early week storm gets out of the way. 

We’re on the threshold of December now, so for your location in NH, you can toss the worry out the window and let folks farther south deal with it.  Just sit back and enjoy the winter ride that the NNE mountains are going to give you.  As I mentioned, from this point on you’re going to be in the game for snow/frozen from essentially any system that touches your area – it doesn’t matter if it goes to the north, south, east, or west of you, or right over your head; there’s almost always going to be some frozen from it unless the upslope is totally wonky/anemic in your area for some reason.

Take this next system that everyone spends their time bemoaning; just about every model shows snow up here as it departs.  And then the potential one after that, whatever the front end does, the models show it leaving snow in its wake.  And if a storm doesn’t work out perfectly, it’s no big deal, there’s typically going to be another snow event right behind it within a few days.  You are definitely not in a spot now where you’re going to have to obsess over the models about missing the one or two big shots you might get during the season for snow.  You’re literally going to have dozens and dozens of snow chances on the season.

With the insane snow numbers coming out of that local Randolph CoCoRaHS site, it’s just hard to imagine it going any other way unless the effects there are somehow very localized.  Think about last season – that site recorded more snowfall than I have ever recorded at this site in 14+ years of detailed observations.  And, according to the SNE discussions I’ve been seeing, last season was apparently horrible, with the dreaded “pig” pattern most of the season?  Imagine what’s going to happen up there in an “average”, or “good” season.  LOL!

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, J.Spin said:

We’re on the threshold of December now, so for your location in NH, you can toss the worry out the window and let folks farther south deal with it.  Just sit back and enjoy the winter ride that the NNE mountains are going to give you.  As I mentioned, from this point on you’re going to be in the game for snow/frozen from essentially any system that touches your area – it doesn’t matter if it goes to the north, south, east, or west of you, or right over your head; there’s almost always going to be some frozen from it unless the upslope is totally wonky/anemic in your area for some reason.

Take this next system that everyone spends their time bemoaning; just about every model shows snow up here as it departs.  And then the potential one after that, whatever the front end does, the models show it leaving snow in its wake.  And if a storm doesn’t work out perfectly, it’s no big deal, there’s typically going to be another snow event right behind it within a few days.  You are definitely not in a spot now where you’re going to have to obsess over the models about missing the one or two big shots you might get during the season for snow.  You’re literally going to have dozens and dozens of snow chances on the season.

With the insane snow numbers coming out of that local Randolph CoCoRaHS site, it’s just hard to imagine it going any other way unless the effects there are somehow very localized.  Think about last season – that site recorded more snowfall than I have ever recorded at this site in 14+ years of detailed observations.  And, according to the SNE discussions I’ve been seeing, last season was apparently horrible, with the dreaded “pig” pattern most of the season?  Imagine what’s going to happen up there in an “average”, or “good” season.  LOL!

Thanks, I needed this weather pick-me-up. I will admit that low ceilings and 37/drizzle for days with more on the horizon is depressing. The darkness and dampness here really sucks. I don’t need a lot of snow. 28 degrees with occasional snow showers is just fine too. 

[ORH_wxman]

10 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Thanks, I needed this weather pick-me-up. I will admit that low ceilings and 37/drizzle for days with more on the horizon is depressing. The darkness and dampness here really sucks. I don’t need a lot of snow. 28 degrees with occasional snow showers is just fine too. 

You’ll prob get decent upslope behind the 2nd storm anyway. Gonna need to get lucky for the synoptic stuff to be snow or mostly snow. It’s a hideous setup. 

Pattern gets a lot better once it passes. 

[dryslot]

10th onward.

[PhineasC]

Just now, dryslot said:

10th onward.

I go back to MD on the 11th until the 21st so that checks out. Epic 10 days for you guys. 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

I go back to MD on the 11th until the 21st so that checks out. Epic 10 days for you guys. 

Its about the right time frame as a norm, When you come back, Don't bring the MD weather in tow, We would like to avoid the grinch this year.........lol.

[PhineasC]

Hoping to sneak in one more cold snowy day before the 11th. Maybe 3-5 inches. Doesn’t seem like a lot to ask for. I am tired of shoveling pattern, been doing that for many years.   

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Hoping to sneak in one more cold snowy day before the 11th. Maybe 3-5 inches. Doesn’t seem like a lot to ask for. I am tired of shoveling pattern, been doing my that for many years.   

The upslope potential behind the 2nd system looks pretty decent. You’ll prob get a little behind the first system but the second one might be more favorable for several inches. Still a ways out but it takes a better looking track up into southern Quebec for it.

[backedgeapproaching]

Phin going to be putting the heat on Will soon if he isn't waist deep in snow..

[wxeyeNH]

J Spin,   I agree with you.  Even with cutters the upslope always leaves the Greens and Whites with snow on the backend.   That second system looks interesting.  Not often do you see a sub 960mb over New England,

[powderfreak]

Had to go up above 2,500ft to find some actual winter over white rain or wet parachutes on top of mud at 1,500ft.

Picked up 2" at 3,300ft stake this afternoon.  The world looks so much better with snow around.  Below 2,000ft looks like Maryland in February after a rainstorm.

[PhineasC]

Some flakes mixed in here now. Yippee!

[alex]

Flipped to snow here

[PhineasC]

Flurries and 35 degrees. Nice to see. 

[mreaves]

Temp dropped quicker than I was expecting. Went to the grocery store and the car was frozen up pretty good. Temp is 30°

[dryslot]

32°F, Foggy as a fuk here, Vis looks like its in feet.

[bwt3650]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Had to go up above 2,500ft to find some actual winter over white rain or wet parachutes on top of mud at 1,500ft.

Picked up 2" at 3,300ft stake this afternoon.  The world looks so much better with snow around.  Below 2,000ft looks like Maryland in February after a rainstorm.

Going to look even better when those boulders are hidden in a few weeks.

[J.Spin]

4 hours ago, PhineasC said:

Thanks, I needed this weather pick-me-up.

Nice!  I see that Will commented on the potential for upslope with these next couple of systems.  If you’re interested in snow, that’s always something to look forward to, even if you have a system that takes a track leaving the area in the warm sector for much of the storm.  Every storm has to pass by eventually and get to the back side, usually with colder air.

[dryslot]

Might need to clear a path to the Genny

[J.Spin]

52 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Special pattern just for your first winter.

 

44 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

It’s horrible looking. What he hell happened to that NE magic? It’s just as pathetic in NE now as in MD. LOL

The folks on the board often discuss it, but SNE had a ridiculous run of winters there for a while.  I think I remember someone from CT pointing out a few seasons back how he hadn’t had a below average snowfall winter in perhaps a decade?  It was something crazy along those lines.  That may have given a bit of an inflated perspective on the snowfall climate, but I’m not sure.  Coastal, south of Boston recorded 128” back in 2014-2015, which has got to be what… more than double the average annual snowfall there? Maybe close to triple?  You’d think things would have to be lined up perfectly for that sort of magic, and I don’t suspect that can happen every year.  Up here, I’m sure everyone would love to see Mansfield pull off a season like that with triple its annual snowfall average.

It’s hard to say what’s going to happen with that second potential storm in the modeling, since it’s still pretty far out there, but whether something like that affects the area or not, those backside snows are still in the game… or maybe the equivalent.  The latest run of the GFS doesn’t have much of a second storm affecting this area, but there’s plenty of snow on there.  Check out that bread and butter (I guess northern stream?) potential behind it.  If you put a clown map to it that would be feet of snow for the local mountains by mid-month.  That sounds like a lot, but actually, it’s probably just average.  I’m sure PF has the numbers, but if we average 3+ feet here at our site, Mansfield should probably be averaging something like 6 feet for the month of December anyway.

[bwt3650]

10 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

 

The folks on the board often discuss it, but SNE had a ridiculous run of winters there for a while.  I think I remember someone from CT pointing out a few seasons back how he hadn’t had a below average snowfall winter in perhaps a decade?  It was something crazy along those lines.  That may have given a bit of an inflated perspective on the snowfall climate, but I’m not sure.  Coastal, south of Boston recorded 128” back in 2014-2015, which has got to be what… more than double the average annual snowfall there? Maybe close to triple?  You’d think things would have to be lined up perfectly for that sort of magic, and I don’t suspect that can happen every year.  Up here, I’m sure everyone would love to see Mansfield pull off a season like that with triple its annual snowfall average.

It’s hard to say what’s going to happen with that second potential storm in the modeling, since it’s still pretty far out there, but whether something like that affects the area or not, those backside snows are still in the game… or maybe the equivalent.  The latest run of the GFS doesn’t have much of a second storm affecting this area, but there’s plenty of snow on there.  Check out that bread and butter (I guess northern stream?) potential behind it.  If you put a clown map to it that would be feet of snow for the local mountains by mid-month.  That sounds like a lot, but actually, it’s probably just average.  I’m sure PF has the numbers, but if we average 3+ feet here at our site, Mansfield should probably be averaging something like 6 feet for the month of December anyway.

And that's what I love about up here.  Yeah, it would be great to get a big synoptic event with a high water content to put down a solid base on the natural trails, but it seems like up here, with every threat comes the potential for that backside cold shot bringing the up-slope.  I forgot which one of you reminded me, the northern greens don't move, so when that upper level pattern can be forecast several days out, we can have more confidence in getting some decent snows, rather than living and dying with each model run.  I may be different that some folks who just love the big event that you track for days with the highs and lows of 1 am model runs, but I'll take the consistent powder days all winter long over the blockbuster.  Hopefully, that gfs run that shows a few days of up-slope magic and below freezing highs gets some terrain open next week.  We saw some on and off mixed precip yesterday, but nothing but grass outside right now.

 

[wxeyeNH]

What a beautiful day in New Hampshire.  Took a 125 mile ride through the Whites.  First north through Franconia Notch.  Snow line was around 3000 feet.  Then NE around the Northern Whites to Gorham and south to Conway and over the Kanc to Lincoln and south to Plymouth.  Presidentials and Franconia Range were snow covered above 3000 feet.  Driving over the Kanc the ground was snow covered at the top of the pass.