PhineasC Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 Yeah, the extended is definitely looking snowier up here again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 Only our 23rd November here but this week (Today's max will be about 61, recorded last evening about 10) now dominates the month's warmest days. However, 6th warmest was the 11th in 2002 and with low of 50, that day's mean of 58 remains #1. 11/6: 63/31 +10 11/7: 69/44 +20 11/8: 61/36 +12 11/9: 67/38 +16 11/10: 70/33 +16 11/11: 69/35 +17 Warmest November temps: 71 1/2003 70 Tuesday 69 Saturday 69 Yesterday 67 Monday 66 11/2002 63 4 times, including last Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jculligan Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 Couple of decent opportunities for snow on the not-too-distant horizon. As a backcountry skier, I'm happy with snow even when it's confined to the higher terrain...and I'm watching Sunday night as it does have the "sneaky" potential to be predominantly snow in the alpine. Not a major event, but just a few inches of snow followed by next week's cold weather could mean we are finally laying down the foundation of the seasonal snowpack up at 4k feet. At lower elevations (including my place) I think there could be a couple/few hours of snow at the outset, but this will definitely favor the CAD-prone regions on the eastern slope versus those of you in VT and western NH. Next we watch a potential WINDEX event with Tuesday's arctic front, followed by limited upslope potential for the Vermonters in its wake...but I'm becoming very interested in the Thursday night/Friday timeframe next week for a true regionwide light to moderate event followed by a re-loading of the cold air next weekend. I think we've turned the corner, folks...at least for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 23F outside, that’s more seasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 62/34 yesterday for 7 days of 60+, though yesterday's high and low were at opposite ends of the day, with morning/afternoon 50-52. Down to a frosty 20 this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 39.8°/35° BINOVC Miserable start to the day so far with the persistent clouds. I’d like to dry out so I can leaf blow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 A few flurries falling from slate gray skies. This is November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 Gotta start somewhere lol. Tenth of an inch on the evergreens in mid-November. Headline news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 2 hours ago, powderfreak said: A few flurries falling from slate gray skies. This is November. Same here. 34 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 3 hours ago, PhineasC said: Same here. 34 degrees. +3 lol. It’s cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 Hiked Oquossoc Bald (2,400') today with grandkids and some friends (10 in all), saw yesterday's IP as we hit about 1900 then SN on the spruce and fir above 2000, about 1/2" on top - enough to make the obs tower steps slippery. Probably 30-32 on top with gusts 20+ and spitting snow. Met 35-40 others on the trail, including 20-25 from Carrabassett Valley Academy. Not bad for mid-November in questionable wx, though Bald is one of Public Lands' most heavily used trails and it was a Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 1 hour ago, alex said: +3 lol. It’s cold Did you notice there is a new CoCoRaHS observer in Carroll near you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 Little over a half inch today...just enough to whiten it up...guns should be blasting again starting Monday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 52 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Did you notice there is a new CoCoRaHS observer in Carroll near you? I did not! Do you know where they are exactly? I’m not very familiar with CoCoRaHS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 21 minutes ago, alex said: I did not! Do you know where they are exactly? I’m not very familiar with CoCoRaHS Looks like he/she is off Old Cherry Mountain Rd North, near the intersection of Mill Brook Rd. That spot is north of you. Maybe not as close as I thought now that I am looking at it. Not sure how close of a match that would be to your spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 1 hour ago, bwt3650 said: Little over a half inch today...just enough to whiten it up...guns should be blasting again starting Monday. That’s great having you up at base of Jay Peak. Certainly nothing near that down at Stowe, just that dusting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 20 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Looks like he/she is off Old Cherry Mountain Rd North, near the intersection of Mill Brook Rd. That spot is north of you. Maybe not as close as I thought now that I am looking at it. Not sure how close of a match that would be to your spot. Ah. Not a great match - that’s essentially in Jefferson. Can’t even get there in the winter without driving all the way around - Old Cherry Mtn Road is closed in winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, alex said: Ah. Not a great match - that’s essentially in Jefferson. Can’t even get there in the winter without driving all the way around - Old Cherry Mtn Road is closed in winter Yup, but always good to have another data point in the area nonetheless. I will be interested to see how that spot does in our various events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 Just now, PhineasC said: Yup, but always good to have another data point in the area nonetheless. I will be interested to see how that spot does in our various events. True! But I don’t know how comparable it is in upslope events. Or any event for that matter. Jefferson can be quite different from here. But it will be interesting to see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, alex said: True! But I don’t know how comparable it is in upslope events. Or any event for that matter. Jefferson can be quite different from here. But it will be interesting to see! Well, if you see they are beating you in snow totals you know there is either something very wrong or you need a new ruler. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 Just a very basic look at the 18z models seems to show we should have some snow in the air between Mon-Wed. I wouldn't read into the exact amounts at all, but that's a classic signal for just rounds of snow showers for the North Country. These snow maps are sort of over-selling it a bit as it's a 3-day total but ratios are likely better than the 10:1 here... but it'll sublimate too. Models just seem to have rounds of light QPF moving through in a pretty cold air mass for N.VT and N.NH. Probably the type of stuff where a 0.25" falls, then nothing for a while, then 24 hours later a round brings 0.5" to dust things up again, etc. Should at least have a couple days of snow in the air. GFS is certainly a bit more organized than the ECM for orographic precipitation, but given fast westerly flow I'm leaning towards a less organized but more showery/squally type pattern. But I will say this is the time of year when any streamer moisture from Lake Ontario can easily put down 2-3" of fluff in a relatively short period of time. ECMWF GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 9 hours ago, powderfreak said: Just a very basic look at the 18z models seems to show we should have some snow in the air between Mon-Wed. I wouldn't read into the exact amounts at all, but that's a classic signal for just rounds of snow showers for the North Country. These snow maps are sort of over-selling it a bit as it's a 3-day total but ratios are likely better than the 10:1 here... but it'll sublimate too. Models just seem to have rounds of light QPF moving through in a pretty cold air mass for N.VT and N.NH. Probably the type of stuff where a 0.25" falls, then nothing for a while, then 24 hours later a round brings 0.5" to dust things up again, etc. Should at least have a couple days of snow in the air. GFS is certainly a bit more organized than the ECM for orographic precipitation, but given fast westerly flow I'm leaning towards a less organized but more showery/squally type pattern. But I will say this is the time of year when any streamer moisture from Lake Ontario can easily put down 2-3" of fluff in a relatively short period of time. ECMWF GFS 3k Nam looks like its trying for a decent burst up here too Monday Night...maybe 3-5 on the mountain. Where do you find the Froude number data? That's my new weather toy I'm trying to figure out with these upslope snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 CAR has an advisory for NW Maine tonight/tomorrow, 3-5". Also high wind watch for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 12 hours ago, PhineasC said: Well, if you see they are beating you in snow totals you know there is either something very wrong or you need a new ruler. LOL Haha yes. Or it’s the wind. Soooo hard to measure in wind! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 That jay peak base spot is silly Is that a condo on the mountain 2k or just nearby around 1700-1800’ or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 Hazardous weather outlook from Gray says “several inches” possible in Monday upslope showers on W and NW facing spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 5 hours ago, bwt3650 said: 3k Nam looks like its trying for a decent burst up here too Monday Night...maybe 3-5 on the mountain. Where do you find the Froude number data? That's my new weather toy I'm trying to figure out with these upslope snows. It's pretty buried on the BTV site, but it's under the Mansfield MesoNet page: https://www.weather.gov/btv/profile Under the temperature profile graph, there are Froude Model Forecasts. I'm a big fan of the 4km northern Greens as that's the most applicable. When it tries to blend in all of the Greens it gets noisy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 38° with -SHPL thanks to some dry air aloft. Trying to winterize the run today despite pulling my back out yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 16 hours ago, powderfreak said: Just a very basic look at the 18z models seems to show we should have some snow in the air between Mon-Wed. I wouldn't read into the exact amounts at all, but that's a classic signal for just rounds of snow showers for the North Country. These snow maps are sort of over-selling it a bit as it's a 3-day total but ratios are likely better than the 10:1 here... but it'll sublimate too. Models just seem to have rounds of light QPF moving through in a pretty cold air mass for N.VT and N.NH. Probably the type of stuff where a 0.25" falls, then nothing for a while, then 24 hours later a round brings 0.5" to dust things up again, etc. Should at least have a couple days of snow in the air. GFS is certainly a bit more organized than the ECM for orographic precipitation, but given fast westerly flow I'm leaning towards a less organized but more showery/squally type pattern. But I will say this is the time of year when any streamer moisture from Lake Ontario can easily put down 2-3" of fluff in a relatively short period of time. ECMWF GFS Thanks for the updates PF. The mild weather was nice, but we’ve definitely shifted into that mid-month period of cold and snow chances that the forum has been talking about. We were outside here at the house getting some chores done, and we got hit with a round of sleet that eventually transitioned to snow. We did get accumulation, especially with the sleet, but nothing that hit the 0.1” threshold, so only a trace of frozen was recorded. Like you said, nothing major is expected with these next rounds of snow, but if it’s in our forecast even down here in the valley, the mountains are certainly likely to get something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 40° with a few snow pellets and flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now