NNE Cold Season Thread 2020-2021

[jculligan]

Definitely the most pronounced inversion I've seen up here this morning. 38 degrees in Jackson village (863'), 53 degrees at my place, 59 degrees at Hermit Lake on Mount Washington (3875'). That temperature at Hermit Lake is about 10 degrees warmer than yesterday at this time. Today could be a run for all-time November records I think.

[powderfreak]

Another crazy inversion.

33F for a low in the valley.  Car said 36F leaving home and 51F at 1500ft less than 10 min later.

Its hot up here, like a July morning in the 50s, lol.  I still have plow piles rotting at my place, snow is long gone up here though.  The cold nights must be keeping it around ha.

[PhineasC]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Another crazy inversion.

33F for a low in the valley.  Car said 36F leaving home and 51F at 1500ft less than 10 min later.

Its hot up here, like a July morning in the 50s, lol.

Hoping the rubber band snaps big time later in the month. What a crazy week. Last Tuesday I was mid-20s with snow squalls.

[powderfreak]

47 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Hoping the rubber band snaps big time later in the month. What a crazy week. Last Tuesday I was mid-20s with snow squalls.

Ha yeah, November 2018 we had permanent snowpack down now.

Last Monday and Tuesday was like mid-winter for 48 hours... but we do get these Indian Summer's in November but not quite to these levels.

I actually think November 2011 was like this but later in the month.  We got an 8-10" snowstorm and then it just went sunny and mild with these massive inversions.  That was the only time I have photos of snow cover in the valley but not up higher.  It was wild.  1,500ft was just 50s for days on end while 700-1,000ft rotted in freezing fog and 28-33F until on Day 3 the warmth finally broke the inversion.

[J.Spin]

20 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ha yeah, November 2018 we had permanent snowpack down now.

These past couple of Novembers have definitely had early snowpack starts here in the valley – in 2018 it was on November 10^th, and last year in 2019 it was even earlier, November 8^th.  It’s funny to think of that with the current weather.

Our mean/median snowpack start here is right at the beginning of December.  So roughly half the time, the snowpack starts in November, but typically not as early as these past couple of years.  The data say that these past couple of seasons are around the -1.5 σ mark, putting them in the earliest 10% of seasons for the start of the continuous winter snowpack.

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Ha yeah, November 2018 we had permanent snowpack down now.

Last Monday and Tuesday was like mid-winter for 48 hours... but we do get these Indian Summer's in November but not quite to these levels.

I actually think November 2011 was like this but later in the month.  We got an 8-10" snowstorm and then it just went sunny and mild with these massive inversions.  That was the only time I have photos of snow cover in the valley but not up higher.  It was wild.  1,500ft was just 50s for days on end while 700-1,000ft rotted in freezing fog and 28-33F until on Day 3 the warmth finally broke the inversion.

 

1 hour ago, J.Spin said:

These past couple of Novembers have definitely had early snowpack starts here in the valley – in 2018 it was on November 10^th, and last year in 2019 it was even earlier, November 8^th.  It’s funny to think of that with the current weather.

Our mean/median snowpack start here is right at the beginning of December.  So roughly half the time, the snowpack starts in November, but typically not as early as these past couple of years.  The data say that these past couple of seasons are around the -1.5 σ mark, putting them in the earliest 10% of seasons for the start of the continuous winter snowpack.

I'm glad you meticulously track this type of data J.Spin.  All I have is the anecdotal "Geez, these last few Novembers have seemed more winterier than usual."  Now I can site a source.

[wxeyeNH]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Ha yeah, November 2018 we had permanent snowpack down now.

Last Monday and Tuesday was like mid-winter for 48 hours... but we do get these Indian Summer's in November but not quite to these levels.

I actually think November 2011 was like this but later in the month.  We got an 8-10" snowstorm and then it just went sunny and mild with these massive inversions.  That was the only time I have photos of snow cover in the valley but not up higher.  It was wild.  1,500ft was just 50s for days on end while 700-1,000ft rotted in freezing fog and 28-33F until on Day 3 the warmth finally broke the inversion.

I think I got snow around Nov 8 2018 and then basically had a constant pack till spring except for a few days around Christmas when I had some patches of field showing on the south exposures.

[jculligan]

High of 78F up here today. I almost began questioning my equipment, but there is a thermometer at 1483' in Jackson that hit 77F and another thermometer in Jackson village that also hit 78F. So deep mixing allowed locations from the valley floor on up to 1500' to spike into the upper 70s today. This has to be all-time record territory for November in this part of the state.

[PhineasC]

Topped out at 71. Sitting on the deck this evening, like it's early September again.

Hopefully this ends soon. Bring on the huge cold and snow please.

[powderfreak]

The weenie in me was shocked that there was still a small patch of snow just about rotted gone along the edge of the field next to my place.

It has been so warm, for so many days.  4 or 5 straight record highs on Mansfield?

I guess we are lucky to have gotten that one good storm of the season down in town, lol.

 

[powderfreak]

8 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

I think I got snow around Nov 8 2018 and then basically had a constant pack till spring except for a few days around Christmas when I had some patches of field showing on the south exposures.

2018 (photo) around this time was the start of the snows in this area.  Definitely not this year.  Though we also hadn't picked up a decent event like we have this year. 

[PhineasC]

55 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The weenie in me was shocked that there was still a small patch of snow just about rotted gone along the edge of the field next to my place.

It has been so warm, for so many days.  4 or 5 straight record highs on Mansfield?

I guess we are lucky to have gotten that one good storm of the season down in town, lol.

 

That’s 2020 right there. 

[J.Spin]

46 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The weenie in me was shocked that there was still a small patch of snow just about rotted gone along the edge of the field next to my place.

It has been so warm, for so many days.  4 or 5 straight record highs on Mansfield?

I guess we are lucky to have gotten that one good storm of the season down in town, lol.

 

Yeah, that’s been interesting.  The snow is gone on our property as far as I can tell, but there’s a bunch that is hanging around on the south bank of the Winooski down here – I see it when I’m out on MTB rides.  The snow there is protected from any sun, and I assume there’s some cooling or something going on around the river.  Even with the warm temperatures, I guess the low sun angle helps preserve it as well.

With these temperatures, the riding has been great now that things have generally dried out.  One of the stranger feelings is having the sun so low and set so early, but still having some warm temperatures with darkness coming on so early.  The temperature does eventually drop once the sun is gone, but there’s a really neat period in there near dusk where it’s clearly a wintry type sun angle but a spring-like feeling in the air.  All the trees being well into stick season mode also sets up a strange dichotomy. 

[J.Spin]

10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

2018 (photo) around this time was the start of the snows in this area.  Definitely not this year.  Though we also hadn't picked up a decent event like we have this year. 

I’d say we might as well enjoy this beautiful weather while we’ve got it, since it looks like we’ll be back to more November-like temperatures with snow chances as we head into the weekend.

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

628 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2020

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

As of 355 PM EST Tuesday...In any case, still expecting rain showers sometime late Sunday to Monday becoming snow showers late Monday into Tuesday as cooler air pushes in behind the departing low. Thus, coolest temperatures expected midweek with highs only in the 30s.

Looking back in my records, we’ve had some really tame Novembers around here, like November 2010 with 2.4” of snow, November 2015 with 2.0”, November 2009 with 0.2”, and November 2006 with zero snow for the entire month.  I don’t know the pattern details from those Novembers, but this one is clearly different.  Yeah we’ve already had over a foot from those couple of storms early in the month, but even without that, the pattern just doesn’t look quite as benign over the next couple of weeks.

[PhineasC]

19 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

Yeah, that’s been interesting.  The snow is gone on our property as far as I can tell, but there’s a bunch that is hanging around on the south bank of the Winooski down here – I see it when I’m out on MTB rides.  The snow there is protected from any sun, and I assume there’s some cooling or something going on around the river.  Even with the warm temperatures, I guess the low sun angle helps preserve it as well.

With these temperatures, the riding has been great now that things have generally dried out.  One of the stranger feelings is having the sun so low and set so early, but still having some warm temperatures with darkness coming on so early.  The temperature does eventually drop once the sun is gone, but there’s a really neat period in there near dusk where it’s clearly a wintry type sun angle but a spring-like feeling in the air.  All the trees being well into stick season mode also sets up a strange dichotomy. 

Felt the same way out there today with the log splitter as the sun was starting to head behind the ridge line. It looked like I should be freezing out there but in a t-shirt and shorts I just felt a light chill. 

[jculligan]

Last day of outrageous departures up here. Started out at a balmy 52F and as the sun crests the hill behind my house we are already up to 58F at 8am. This will almost certainly be the fifth day of 70+ at this elevation, which hasn't happened since 9/25-9/29. 

Looking forward to getting back to somewhat more typical November temps from tomorrow through the weekend, and then perhaps some negative departures next week. Wildcat bumped back its opening day from 11/13 to 11/20, and I think they'll get a several day window for snowmaking next week so that should be achievable. Not dwelling too much on the super long range ha.

[backedgeapproaching]

CPV was cookin' last night on southerly breeze.  BTV low of 63F, what a 4-5 day torch.  Even at 6am 60s were way up in interior Canada, guess the prairie lands.

Low of 50F here, Bennington also roasting with a 61F low.

[dryslot]

Hunting in shorts and a T-shirt sucks, Its not like the deer can remove their winter coats.

[jculligan]

Clouds rolled in and curbed our temp at 67F. At least it looks more like November out there now.

[wxeyeNH]

Ouch.  Way out in fantasyland but Euro has a high of 13F a week from Saturday.

[#NoPoles]

2 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

Ouch.  Way out in fantasyland but Euro has a high of 13F a week from Saturday.

I'm not ready

[dryslot]

Bring on the cold, LFG!!!

[mreaves]

45 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Bring on the cold, LFG!!!

I’m with you. This feels weird. 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, mreaves said:

I’m with you. This feels weird. 

As has all of 2020 so far.

[jculligan]

We "only" hit 67F today but the temperature is really holding up there tonight. I dare say it's even a bit muggy out there. Currently 65/60 which is the warmest it has been at this hour during this entire stretch.

The Euro has completely flip flopped in the long range, and actually has a promising look to it here in the North Country with even some synoptic snow chances later next week. I'm not confident that will verify, but at least it looks to return to typical November chill if not below normal for a couple/few days. Let's hope this pattern has reached high tide.

[klw]

13 hours ago, mreaves said:

I’m with you. This feels weird. 

It would feel weirder if I had my normal sense for what day or month it is.  I have been home way too often this year to always know what day of the week it is. 

[powderfreak]

The fact that its so dark and yet so warm is super confusing lol.

BTV destroyed its warmest 7-day period in November on record by 4 degrees.  The mean temp over the last 7 days was 59F and the previous record holder was 55F.

This is a week similar to September climate or Memorial Day Weekend.

I have no doubt that Mansfield also crushed its previous 7-day warmth in November as 5 straight days were all within a few degrees of all-time November warmth.

We’ve had some whopper warm records this year now in the bookend months of May and November.

[powderfreak]

Mansfield ripping off 5 straight record highs, all close to the 63F November record since 1954.

Also of note is the large percentage of 2000+ years in the record max temps in general.  The last 20 years dwarf the previous 46 years for warm records up there.

[jculligan]

Euro putting down 1-2" of snow in the White Mountains with the weak wave progged to move through tomorrow afternoon. Boundary layer looks questionable, so I'm anticipating little accumulation below 2500' but always hoping for a surprise ha. The higher peaks should have a more wintry look to them this weekend anyway.

[bwt3650]

Looks like some upslope late weekend, early next week.  Also maybe the coldest night of the season so far.  In a sea of warmth, it looks like the mountains will get a good window to blow like crazy next week.  Might be able to go 24/7 for most of the week.  I can imagine the prep going on this weekend to be ready to really hit it hard and make up for the last two weeks.